Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2022 10:19:11 GMT
The Labour Scottish vote is an interesting one. I've heard that stat before that only once when Labour has had a majority they needed their Scottish MPs to achieve this number. But of the 59 Scottish seats the SNP are very likely to take 35 to 40 minimum next time. Rule out the 18 NI seats so Labour are looking to get over 300 MPs from mainly 570 odd UK seats. The Lib Dems would want PR as part of any coalition and possibly adding the one or two Green MPs too who would support Labour.
The Lib Dems were set back nearly 30 years after they went into coalition with the Tories in 2010 so may be reluctant to risk it again. A Labour-SNP coalition would give a likely chance of having a majority with others giving informal support. There would be a future Scottish Independence Referendum attached to this. But Labour would look to push this back as far into the next Parliament as possible so if vote was yes there could be another election before the breakway happened and Labour potentially controlled negotiations for British Gov side.
If the Tories got baack in and took over the British Gov negs than things could get very ugly. But if Scotland did go seperate then Labour would find it very hard to ever win another UK election outright but might be able to then form some coalition with Lib Dems who would be another 7 to 10 years on from their last dipping the toes into power and fancy the risk again.
The Lib Dems were set back nearly 30 years after they went into coalition with the Tories in 2010 so may be reluctant to risk it again. A Labour-SNP coalition would give a likely chance of having a majority with others giving informal support. There would be a future Scottish Independence Referendum attached to this. But Labour would look to push this back as far into the next Parliament as possible so if vote was yes there could be another election before the breakway happened and Labour potentially controlled negotiations for British Gov side.
If the Tories got baack in and took over the British Gov negs than things could get very ugly. But if Scotland did go seperate then Labour would find it very hard to ever win another UK election outright but might be able to then form some coalition with Lib Dems who would be another 7 to 10 years on from their last dipping the toes into power and fancy the risk again.
