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Post by southstreet on Dec 20, 2021 17:59:10 GMT
How is a nearly 70% percent increase in cases compared to last Monday a stabilising of cases?
I genuinely hope you're right and numbers won't go crazy in hospitals, though it sounds like numbers in London are definitely increasing quite a bit, but so far I have seen nothing but exponential growth in case numbers over the last week or so. And that won't show in hospitals for at least another week and in deaths not til Jan.
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 18:03:14 GMT
He's buying himself a week becasue there is a chance the hospital and death data won't deteriorate very much, even though infection rates have increased. There is also the issue central to Tory thinking of the tail wagging the dog - the unvaxed small minority (but 90% of deaths) determining Gov policy.
Fwiw, 920K vaccinated yesterday.
You might have something there. Cases very much appear to be stabilising rather than increasing exponentially. The number of patients in hospital with covid has been between 7-8000 for the past month of data, again no exponential rises. Average deaths per day has barely changed in a month. I think it's far too early to say that cases are stabilising here. The graph here, looking at cases by specimen date shows the latest 'complete' day as the highest so far, with the later bars indicating that labs appear to be a few days behind in terms of processing. There is also extreme pressure on testing in London. I have been unable to get hold of LFT tests for days and people are queing for hours to access PCR testing sites It's also important to remember that the England data excludes re-infection and we know from Denmark that we have seen a 200% increase in re-infections, so these figures are lower than they should be. Here's the ZOE covid data in comparison, which although uses a lot of modelling has actually been pretty reliable throughout the pandemic |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 20, 2021 18:11:27 GMT
You might have something there. Cases very much appear to be stabilising rather than increasing exponentially. The number of patients in hospital with covid has been between 7-8000 for the past month of data, again no exponential rises. Average deaths per day has barely changed in a month. I think it's far too early to say that cases are stabilising here. No it isn't. Cases are not a good enough guide now, not with a variant that is more viral but less life-threatening.
Hospitalisations are the guide, and in particular unavoidable hospitalisations rather than 'we have Covid bed capacity we should use it'.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 20, 2021 18:44:57 GMT
That's pretty much how I felt the day after my booster, although in my case it was the post-jab arm pain that had kept me awake most of the night. Yes, the arm pain did not help my attempts to sleep last night. I usually sleep on both sides alternately, swapping over a number of times in the night, so being stuck witn only one available side was a pain both literally & figuratively. Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side. |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 18:45:42 GMT
I think it's far too early to say that cases are stabilising here. No it isn't. Cases are not a good enough guide now, not with a variant that is more viral but less life-threatening.
Hospitalisations are the guide, and in particular unavoidable hospitalisations rather than 'we have Covid bed capacity we should use it'.
No, hospitalisations are absolutely not the guide as to whether cases are stabilising here due to the lag in between infections and hospitalisation As of yet there is little evidence to support that this variant causes less severe disease. If you can present evidence to counter this, please do as I'm interested to read it |
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Post by crowblack on Dec 20, 2021 18:58:45 GMT
Liverpool Everyman and Playhouse are cancelling performances now.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2021 19:07:00 GMT
If they did a short sharp lockdown then schools and unis going back would need to be online. I don't see how you can justify people not being able to work but children being in school apart from Exam years.
Will vaccinations of Primary school years come now, a lot of countries are doing it. Could a devolved government decide to do it?
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Post by zahidf on Dec 20, 2021 19:16:24 GMT
Some good threads on why there some cautious good news in the London hospitlisation data
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 20, 2021 20:19:02 GMT
Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side. That is not exactly encouraging to read! I think at the moment my arm is less painful than it was for my first jab, though worse than the second. I'm hoping that now I've had one Pfizer if I have to have more boosters in the future that the side effects won't be as bad, in the same way my 2nd AstraZeneca wasn't nearly as bad as the first. ETA: Damn, I've just remembered that people who started with Pfizer seemed to get worse side effects from the 2nd jab than the 1st, so that doesn't bode well! |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 20:52:22 GMT
Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side. That is not exactly encouraging to read! I think at the moment my arm is less painful than it was for my first jab, though worse than the second. I'm hoping that now I've had one Pfizer if I have to have more boosters in the future that the side effects won't be as bad, in the same way my 2nd AstraZeneca wasn't nearly as bad as the first. ETA: Damn, I've just remembered that people who started with Pfizer seemed to get worse side effects from the 2nd jab than the 1st, so that doesn't bode well! This was usually if they'd had no prior infection. Those that had been infected prior to their first Pfizer jab often experienced worse/similar symptoms on their first as opposed to their second jab. Source: covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-pfizer-effectsI don't think it would be unreasonable to suggest that a prior dose of any vaccine would yield similar results to this |
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Post by djp on Dec 20, 2021 23:36:01 GMT
If they did a short sharp lockdown then schools and unis going back would need to be online. I don't see how you can justify people not being able to work but children being in school apart from Exam years. Will vaccinations of Primary school years come now, a lot of countries are doing it. Could a devolved government decide to do it? Particularly as under Delta, Kent's graphs recently showed a pattern of tiny number of infections in everyone over 60 and a comparatively massive number of infections in secondary and then primary school children and then their parent's age group.We could have had a much easier autumn if the Vaccines committee had decided much earlier to vaccinate, and then re vaccinate school students. That was actually Boris's plan to do it before the Autumn term, but the vaccine committee didn't green light it - until they did when the consequences were visible. A case of him being wrong by following his medical advice....
Israel is the big test bed out there -starting early and reporting their results and acting as a big sample for Pfizer., and they have been vaccinated down to 5 for a month , and America's cdc has cleared it. We are still juggling angels on pin heads in the appropriate medical committee and no politician will risk moving without their say so.
Which incidentally is why I sadly won't be going anywhere near a panto this year. What age groups are most infected, which have not been vaccinated , and who doesn't have to wear masks?
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Post by djp on Dec 20, 2021 23:52:19 GMT
No it isn't. Cases are not a good enough guide now, not with a variant that is more viral but less life-threatening.
Hospitalisations are the guide, and in particular unavoidable hospitalisations rather than 'we have Covid bed capacity we should use it'.
No, hospitalisations are absolutely not the guide as to whether cases are stabilising here due to the lag in between infections and hospitalisation As of yet there is little evidence to support that this variant causes less severe disease. If you can present evidence to counter this, please do as I'm interested to read it And a lower percentage of hospitalizations and shorter stays won't solve the problem if the virus is spreading much much faster . At some point regardless of those two factors, if they exist at all, you may have so many people being infected , so rapidly, that the overall numbers go up and go up quickly, into the territory where the NHS can't cope. And worse still ,many of the infected and infectious will be the NHS staff who won't be there to try coping.
At the moment the key figures still seem to be coming in- who is catching omicron, is the pattern different , what have self lockdown and masks done, to the R number and whats the course of the disease with this variant , Whats the hospitalization rate and death rate I think has still to come in apart from some early overseas results?
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396 posts
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Post by djp on Dec 20, 2021 23:58:43 GMT
Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side. That is not exactly encouraging to read! I think at the moment my arm is less painful than it was for my first jab, though worse than the second. I'm hoping that now I've had one Pfizer if I have to have more boosters in the future that the side effects won't be as bad, in the same way my 2nd AstraZeneca wasn't nearly as bad as the first. ETA: Damn, I've just remembered that people who started with Pfizer seemed to get worse side effects from the 2nd jab than the 1st, so that doesn't bode well! Seems to be very individual . i had a few hours of tiredness with dose 1 nothing but a sore injection point with 2 and 3. The muscle there still gives a twinge now and again.I have no idea what this means - my immune system is super effective and dealt with the intruders with no fuss - or its comatose and doesn't work?? My FBC suggests the former but it probably means nothing. |
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Post by djp on Dec 21, 2021 0:19:16 GMT
Has he, just as an afterthought, actually warned the arts and hospitality industries that they won't be able to operate in a week's time? And I'm sure there is a thorough and plentiful financial support package for those thousands if not millions of employees now penniless and unable to earn just after Christmas. The basic problem is that the Treasury doesn't work like that under any PM- certainly recently . It finds many necessary things too difficult to design a scheme for - like the actors who qualified for no support . That's often because of some obscure consequence of changing the rules for one group creating a wider legal consequence. Or it doesn't want to pay anything if it can get away with it. Or it moves at a snails pace . And it never seems to do the blindingly obvious - work out what may well happen and design a policy in advance.
Its also got many bad habits ingrained over the years. Hospitals have too few doctors because the Treasury has always capped Uk recruitment into medical training - because its cheaper to import fully trained overseas doctors who don't have to be trained. Defence is run on the principle that we won't fight anyone for 10 years- which has grown out to 15 years at the moment - and looks a bit optimistic by the speed things have changed around the Ukraine. And a basic principle is if you managed today , you can manage again, probably on a bit less tomorrow. And if you want money for something new they will devise a way of measuring the gain that shows its not worth their time and money.
With support for commercial theatres the logic will be they survived so far , and we will get bad press supporting multi-millionaires , and we will set an awful lot of precedents for helping others too. .
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Post by djp on Dec 21, 2021 0:33:35 GMT
Leaving aside the stable door issues, I'm not sure how a month's worth of closures of the entire indoor hospitality industry will be possible without any form of furlough system. This is mass redundancies waiting to happen. The suggestion there can be any forced closures without full financial support would be mind blowing. Especially since there ARE alternatives (we haven’t even done proper vaccine passports in this country yet) The vaccine passport doesn't help enough .The vaccine makes infection and transmission less likely, but we don't know how that turns out under omicron. It reduces the rate of infection below what it would otherwise be , but if the remaining Omicron gets up more people's noses in the theatre you still have a significant risk.PCR would be better but there's a limit to how many tests any country could do and its well below the daily infection rates possible- even if Omicron doesn't move in and become transmittable faster. And then there's those who can't be vaccinated, do you exclude them ? And finally there's all those under 12s who have no vaccine, no mask , and high infection rates - ok for an adult show, but bad news for many of the big shows. |
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Post by Phantom of London on Dec 21, 2021 1:38:35 GMT
I was showing all the classic signs of Covid with a raging sore throat, so done one of those lateral flow test at home and it came back negative, I just had a load of tinsel stuck in my throat, that’s all.
It was just a bad case of tinselitis.
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 21, 2021 10:40:44 GMT
So, if it's correct to say Johnson has bought himself a week (to consider the rate at which - specifically the Omnicrom varient - is leading from infections to hospitalisations), the chances are he will be looking at data like this. It's not Twitter but it might have to do coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=region&areaName=Londoncoronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=LondonI guess the points to make are social and political; *at this specific moment in time* you cannot expect the public in London to support a lockdown when 7 people died here yesterday with Covid-related symptoms, of whom it's likely 2 were vaccinated. All a lockdown now would mean is mass civil disobedience and political suicide. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 21, 2021 11:23:48 GMT
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Post by talkingheads on Dec 21, 2021 11:33:40 GMT
The Culture Secretary, seen here essentially putting her fingers in her ears to ignore the desperate pleas from the arts industry and freelancers, citing the Recovery Fund which is now woefully inadequate
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Post by anthony on Dec 21, 2021 12:11:45 GMT
How is a nearly 70% percent increase in cases compared to last Monday a stabilising of cases? I genuinely hope you're right and numbers won't go crazy in hospitals, though it sounds like numbers in London are definitely increasing quite a bit, but so far I have seen nothing but exponential growth in case numbers over the last week or so. And that won't show in hospitals for at least another week and in deaths not til Jan. The numbers in London are terrifying. I live just outside of London in Herts, and I genuinely don't know anyone who lives within London who currently is not either infected themselves or lives with someone who has tested positive. I guess for some context: I'm a secondary teacher, so a lot of my friends were in schools up until last Friday, so my perception is probably slightly skewed due to that. However, you only need to look at the state of theatre at the moment. Although I think if we're all honest, theatres were never truly all that safe anyway... use of masks was never really enforced at any point since reopening. It's just too easy to say that you're exempt. What worries me most is the nonchalantness of MPs in government. On LBC a few days back, an MP was boasting that the "worst case scenario" shows approximately 3,000 hospitalisations a day and that we are only at 900, so it's likely we will be better than the worst case scenario... The first omicron case was only 3 weeks ago and it's already the most dominant variant. Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told. I just can't help but wonder how different of a situation we would be in, if we had a somewhat competent government. I know Omicron would have spread regardless, but how can it be, that even with our "world-beating vaccination programme", the UK has the largest percentage of covid cases per 100k in the whole world in the last month? How can it be that we have the highest amount of confirmed omicron cases in the world? Surely things could have been so, so different... And now we're all lambs to the slaughter... |
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 21, 2021 14:07:16 GMT
Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told.
Urgh, it feels like every time I get vaccinated & think I can worry less, along comes something to show that the vaccines are less effective than previously announced so I can't worry less.
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 14:32:15 GMT
You do realise it's not about death rate, it's the ability of hospitals to cope with the number of additional patients, whilst being able to operate other essential treatments. This has absolutely nothing to do with being anti-tory |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 14:37:51 GMT
Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told.
Urgh, it feels like every time I get vaccinated & think I can worry less, along comes something to show that the vaccines are less effective than previously announced so I can't worry less.
Hoping to put your mind at rest a little here: It's really important that we differentiate between effectiveness against 'severe disease' and 'symptomatic infection' here The 55% figure in Anthony's post above is the booster's effectiveness against symptomatic disease. You'd expect this to be lower than the effectiveness against severe disease which is around 80% |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 14:39:14 GMT
The numbers in London are terrifying. I live just outside of London in Herts, and I genuinely don't know anyone who lives within London who currently is not either infected themselves or lives with someone who has tested positive. Let's not over-catastrophise here. I live in London and so do many of my friends. I only know of one friend's partner who has currently tested positive. The friend herself doesn't have it. Yes the numbers are huge, but so is London's population, and that bit of context is important to stop people having unnecessarily heightened panic. Of course further precautions should be taken, but the context does matter too. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 21, 2021 14:44:26 GMT
This has absolutely nothing to do with being anti-tory LOL. Bless you.
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