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Post by zahidf on Dec 21, 2021 15:34:20 GMT
The numbers in London are terrifying. I live just outside of London in Herts, and I genuinely don't know anyone who lives within London who currently is not either infected themselves or lives with someone who has tested positive. Let's not over-catastrophise here. I live in London and so do many of my friends. I only know of one friend's partner who has currently tested positive. The friend herself doesn't have it. Yes the numbers are huge, but so is London's population, and that bit of context is important to stop people having unnecessarily heightened panic. Of course further precautions should be taken, but the context does matter too. Yeah. I currently have it, but its been very mild so far ( sniffles). The 3 jabs ive had is undoubtedly helping me through it. Get jabbed asap, and lets crack on. |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 21, 2021 16:02:21 GMT
Let's not over-catastrophise here. I live in London and so do many of my friends. I only know of one friend's partner who has currently tested positive. The friend herself doesn't have it. Yes the numbers are huge, but so is London's population, and that bit of context is important to stop people having unnecessarily heightened panic. Of course further precautions should be taken, but the context does matter too. Yeah. I currently have it, but its been very mild so far ( sniffles). The 3 jabs ive had is undoubtedly helping me through it. Get jabbed asap, and lets crack on. Don't crack on until you are negative though.... |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 16:46:31 GMT
Wales has put sporting events behind closed doors. Nicola Sturgeon is cracking down ( She has put Sport behind closed doors too I think). I can see NYE being sacrificed but people not wanting to cancel Christmas. If you want to do a short sharp lockdown then by this time next week it really needs to be in place as schools, unis, a lot of workers are off and we get that benefit too. Unis wouldn't go back until 10th Jan I'd think - students would be back say from 6th/7th. Schools go back 4th to 6th roughly so limited exam years and key workers/vunerables in and others online for a week say could give us a firebreak of around 2 weeks which I think is minimum the boffins say we need.
That gets us to towards mid Jan and we will then know much more what numbers, data, effects, healthcare situation is looking like. Plus hopefully many more will have been vaccinated and built up immunity.
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Post by djp on Dec 21, 2021 16:50:53 GMT
Let's not over-catastrophise here. I live in London and so do many of my friends. I only know of one friend's partner who has currently tested positive. The friend herself doesn't have it. Yes the numbers are huge, but so is London's population, and that bit of context is important to stop people having unnecessarily heightened panic. Of course further precautions should be taken, but the context does matter too. Yeah. I currently have it, but its been very mild so far ( sniffles). The 3 jabs ive had is undoubtedly helping me through it. Get jabbed asap, and lets crack on. Best wishes. If you want to monitor how its going you might invest in an oximeter which measures your oxygen levels - cost about £20 from Amazon. dial for for guidance or help if it goes to 93 or below - unless of course you have a condition where its usually there or lower. when you will know whats unusual for you.. Also useful if you or yours ever get pneumonia - i learnt the lesson the hard way - my mothers oxygen levels fell to 50% with nothing but some confusion - which GP by phone just put down to an urinary infection! |
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Post by sfsusan on Dec 21, 2021 16:52:22 GMT
With all the shows being cancelled due to illness in cast and crew, has anyone heard of audience members being infected? Or is something like that being tracked?
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Post by southstreet on Dec 21, 2021 17:00:28 GMT
I guess that's difficult to be tracked? As people won't know if they got infected in the theatre or on the tube there or the restaurant they went to beforehand.
I found it interesting though, I went to Gatsby on Thursday evening, it's in The Little at the Southwark Playhouse and the performers were very, very close to the audience and it's a very long show. The day after they cancelled due to positve case(s?) in the cast, but nobody actually got in touch with regards to track and trace. I have been testing daily anyway and am fine so far, but would have thought in such a small venue, that a lot of the audience will definitely have been in very close proximity to cast members for 15 minutes or more. Or is track and trace no longer a thing?
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Post by djp on Dec 21, 2021 17:05:24 GMT
How is a nearly 70% percent increase in cases compared to last Monday a stabilising of cases? I genuinely hope you're right and numbers won't go crazy in hospitals, though it sounds like numbers in London are definitely increasing quite a bit, but so far I have seen nothing but exponential growth in case numbers over the last week or so. And that won't show in hospitals for at least another week and in deaths not til Jan. The numbers in London are terrifying. I live just outside of London in Herts, and I genuinely don't know anyone who lives within London who currently is not either infected themselves or lives with someone who has tested positive. I guess for some context: I'm a secondary teacher, so a lot of my friends were in schools up until last Friday, so my perception is probably slightly skewed due to that. However, you only need to look at the state of theatre at the moment. Although I think if we're all honest, theatres were never truly all that safe anyway... use of masks was never really enforced at any point since reopening. It's just too easy to say that you're exempt. What worries me most is the nonchalantness of MPs in government. On LBC a few days back, an MP was boasting that the "worst case scenario" shows approximately 3,000 hospitalisations a day and that we are only at 900, so it's likely we will be better than the worst case scenario... The first omicron case was only 3 weeks ago and it's already the most dominant variant. Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told. I just can't help but wonder how different of a situation we would be in, if we had a somewhat competent government. I know Omicron would have spread regardless, but how can it be, that even with our "world-beating vaccination programme", the UK has the largest percentage of covid cases per 100k in the whole world in the last month? How can it be that we have the highest amount of confirmed omicron cases in the world? Surely things could have been so, so different... And now we're all lambs to the slaughter... The heights of the Autumn delta wave were/are driven by the large numbers of school children being infected and giving it to their parents and their poor teachers. . Thats largely because of what they do together and them not being vaccinated . The government plan was to vaccinate the secondaries before the Autumn term. This was stopped by the vaccines committee not bothering about wider effects and deciding not to recommend it.They then went into another angels on pin heads argument about the relative risk to young er children Nothing happened because government can't do what its not had approved to do.
We then hit high rates of delta , large scale infections in the school aged and then omicron. And low what happens they start recommending one dose and then two for older school children, and reduce the age . At the same time they junk all their previous advice on the distance between doses and the need for a booster. And they are still behind the curve elsewhere on vaccinating the very young when Israel started in November and even the cautious Americans have approved it.
Not Boris's fault this time - more the excessively cautious people on the vaccine committee, who didn't appreciate the seriousness of the problem and the interconnections between age groups, - until they recently did and reversed what they said before.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2021 17:20:18 GMT
The numbers in London are terrifying. I live just outside of London in Herts, and I genuinely don't know anyone who lives within London who currently is not either infected themselves or lives with someone who has tested positive. I guess for some context: I'm a secondary teacher, so a lot of my friends were in schools up until last Friday, so my perception is probably slightly skewed due to that. However, you only need to look at the state of theatre at the moment. Although I think if we're all honest, theatres were never truly all that safe anyway... use of masks was never really enforced at any point since reopening. It's just too easy to say that you're exempt. What worries me most is the nonchalantness of MPs in government. On LBC a few days back, an MP was boasting that the "worst case scenario" shows approximately 3,000 hospitalisations a day and that we are only at 900, so it's likely we will be better than the worst case scenario... The first omicron case was only 3 weeks ago and it's already the most dominant variant. Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told. I just can't help but wonder how different of a situation we would be in, if we had a somewhat competent government. I know Omicron would have spread regardless, but how can it be, that even with our "world-beating vaccination programme", the UK has the largest percentage of covid cases per 100k in the whole world in the last month? How can it be that we have the highest amount of confirmed omicron cases in the world? Surely things could have been so, so different... And now we're all lambs to the slaughter... The heights of the Autumn delta wave were/are driven by the large numbers of school children being infected and giving it to their parents and their poor teachers. . Thats largely because of what they do together and them not being vaccinated . The government plan was to vaccinate the secondaries before the Autumn term. This was stopped by the vaccines committee not bothering about wider effects and deciding not to recommend it.They then went into another angels on pin heads argument about the relative risk to young er children Nothing happened because government can't do what its not had approved to do.
We then hit high rates of delta , large scale infections in the school aged and then omicron. And low what happens they start recommending one dose and then two for older school children, and reduce the age . At the same time they junk all their previous advice on the distance between doses and the need for a booster. And they are still behind the curve elsewhere on vaccinating the very young when Israel started in November and even the cautious Americans have approved it.
Not Boris's fault this time - more the excessively cautious people on the vaccine committee, who didn't appreciate the seriousness of the problem and the interconnections between age groups, - until they recently did and reversed what they said before.
It almost seems like there are all these sub committees. I guess some need to be seperate as their could be conflict of interests. But surely a government could make decisions with advice from their Chief Medical Officers and Scientists. The MHRA approved the vaccines and the JCVI had lots of data from other countries. This is when the leaders need to push the boffins for a recommendation or make one. Also with all changes having to go through Parliament could there not be the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 be invoked if the PM had the support of the Leader of the Opposition to do so or it was only agreed to be used to a certain level to get things moving quicker. Not quite a national government but Sir Kier and co would be advised and only things with cross party support be activated. |
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 21, 2021 19:38:15 GMT
Hoping to put your mind at rest a little here: It's really important that we differentiate between effectiveness against 'severe disease' and 'symptomatic infection' here The 55% figure in Anthony's post above is the booster's effectiveness against symptomatic disease. You'd expect this to be lower than the effectiveness against severe disease which is around 80% My main problem is not me getting it per say but me getting it & passing it on to my immunosupressed mother. So I could really do with being protected against symptomatic disease as much as possible, as that would reduce the likelihood of me passing it on to her. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 21, 2021 20:30:59 GMT
There you go.
70% less severe means we should all crack on without restrictions
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 20:42:56 GMT
There you go. 70% less severe means we should all crack on without restrictions This is good news. What this doesn't tell us though is how much of this is down to population immunity. We should also be cautious in comparing population analysis with South Africa, where the median age is 28 years, compared with the UK at 41 years All in all, this is promising but in no means should be taken as a 1:1 comparison with how things will/are playing out in the UK |
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Post by olliebean on Dec 21, 2021 23:01:39 GMT
70% fewer severe cases is still considerably greater numbers of severe cases, in view of the greater number of cases overall due to how much more transmissible it is. A much greater number of cases if we all "crack on without restrictions."
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 0:19:04 GMT
70% fewer severe cases is still considerably greater numbers of severe cases, in view of the greater number of cases overall due to how much more transmissible it is. A much greater number of cases if we all "crack on without restrictions." Well that's in a non vaxxed area. With triple boosters, the 70% less severity will be even more pronounced. Its nor a straight mathematical calculation |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 0:19:32 GMT
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 7:10:29 GMT
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 7:48:11 GMT
Can you show me the source here. This just looks and sounds like a poorly written speculative article. It's so important to limit the spread of misinformation here |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 7:51:29 GMT
70% fewer severe cases is still considerably greater numbers of severe cases, in view of the greater number of cases overall due to how much more transmissible it is. A much greater number of cases if we all "crack on without restrictions." Well that's in a non vaxxed area. With triple boosters, the 70% less severity will be even more pronounced. Its nor a straight mathematical calculation Sorry, what you're saying here makes absolutely no sense. This cannot be determined from the research paper you initially posted. Aside from this, a population level study like this is difficult to transpose directly into a much older uk population. Please don't make statements like this, which are categorically untrue. We all have a responsibility to ensure we aren't creating or spreading misinformation |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 8:12:38 GMT
Can you show me the source here. This just looks and sounds like a poorly written speculative article. It's so important to limit the spread of misinformation here Its a respected political news website with a copy of the UKHSA report due out today Im not sure why you're accusing me of misinformation, the article clearly states its from a report by the UKHSA |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 8:18:07 GMT
Can you show me the source here. This just looks and sounds like a poorly written speculative article. It's so important to limit the spread of misinformation here Its a respected political news website with a copy of the UKHSA report due out today Im not sure why you're accusing me of misinformation, the article clearly states its from a report by the UKHSA It's a dodgy website making claims based upon a report they don't quote once and isn't yet available to cross check with this . We all know how much the media like to cherry pick from these reports. How do we know exactly what they are or aren't missing/exaggerating until the actual report is released. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 8:21:44 GMT
Its a respected political news website with a copy of the UKHSA report due out today Im not sure why you're accusing me of misinformation, the article clearly states its from a report by the UKHSA It's a dodgy website making claims based upon a report they don't quote once and isn't yet available to cross check with this . We all know how much the media like to cherry pick from these reports. How do we know exactly what they are or aren't missing/exaggerating until the actual report is released. Politico isnt a 'dodgy' website, and it clearly sets out whats in the report. You can check the report when its out later today line by line if you want i guess. |
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Post by olliebean on Dec 22, 2021 9:56:03 GMT
From that article:
Which is pretty much what I said the last time you made the point about Omicron being milder - if we carry on as normal with no restrictions, the increased transmissibility will likely more than cancel out the reduced virulence, when it comes to absolute numbers of severe cases. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 22, 2021 10:40:38 GMT
From that article:
Which is pretty much what I said the last time you made the point about Omicron being milder - if we carry on as normal with no restrictions, the increased transmissibility will likely more than cancel out the reduced virulence, when it comes to absolute numbers of severe cases. I was making the point Omicron is milder. We should work on increasing hospital capacity going forward. Falling back on restrictions in a non-emergency situation because the NHS hasnt got capacity isn't acceptable |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 11:21:56 GMT
From that article:
Which is pretty much what I said the last time you made the point about Omicron being milder - if we carry on as normal with no restrictions, the increased transmissibility will likely more than cancel out the reduced virulence, when it comes to absolute numbers of severe cases. I was making the point Omicron is milder. We should work on increasing hospital capacity going forward. Falling back on restrictions in a non-emergency situation because the NHS hasnt got capacity isn't acceptable That's a long term solution, years at best. Your 'crack on with no restrictions' is short term. The two don't go together |
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Post by craig on Dec 22, 2021 12:00:11 GMT
Young, healthy, vaccinated people cannot be expected to lock down when their risk of being hospitalised is unbelievably low. It's completely disproportionate. It's an emergency response and shouldn't be treated as an acceptable way of managing the pandemic going forward.
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 22, 2021 12:24:52 GMT
Young, healthy, vaccinated people cannot be expected to lock down when their risk of being hospitalised is unbelievably low. It's completely disproportionate. It's an emergency response and shouldn't be treated as an acceptable way of managing the pandemic going forward.
It's an attempt to merge two narratives, the health outlook which is broadly as you describe, and the political narrative - the mainstream and social media will continue to describe eveything Johnson does as wrong, a shambles, catastrohphic, deceitful, etc.
It literally doesn't matter that the current Gov position is the only viable position - it is, the public would not accept restrictions in these circs, there would be mass civil disobedience - the point for them isn't health or good policy, it's Johnson, Johnson, Johnson.
If you look at the two articles linked to on here recently - The Guardian and FT - their official positions are bizarre and disengenuous in demanding restrictions immediately from an incompetent PM. That is what their readership want to hear.
We pretty much all know he's incompetent but that isn't the thing that matters most just at the minute.
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