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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 15:12:57 GMT
Working from home will likely become the norm with maybe one day a week on site for supporting and head office functions. That's what I'm hoping will happen. I've long maintained that greater flexibility over working is the way to go, and most of what has stood in the way is management who are convinced that it's simply impossible for any business to operate without fixed office hours for everyone. The current situation has not only shown that everything doesn't instantly grind to a halt but it's also demonstrated that for the people who do still need to commute the journey is far faster and more pleasant when there are fewer people doing it. Everyone ends up happier and in many cases financially better off, and it costs the business essentially nothing apart from the initial setup costs. So I'm hoping that this will be a permanent end to the rush hour as we know it. Not everyone ends up happier or better off - to assume so hugely underestimates the mental (and in some cases physical) impact this current lockdown is having on a lot of people, particularly those who live alone. If I didn't (in ordinary circumstances) have the office to go to and therefore wasn't supposed to travel, then I could potentially go days or weeks without seeing anyone, and that is not a life I want to continue living for one second more than I have to. This current enforced solitude is more than enough for me. I don't like the crush of the Tube at rush hour, but the alternative is even more unbearable as a permanent option for me. One day a week working from home is enough. |
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Post by showgirl on Apr 11, 2020 15:15:17 GMT
Sorry you're missing the country walks, @abby and I wish I could suggest an adequate substitute. Walking is keeping me sane at present and though it's not as though I had the choice, if ever I was forced to opt for one only, I would pick walking over theatre - provided it was the right time of year for walking; in winter, theatre would probably win.
As for the communal experience, I realise I must have sounded daft saying in one breath that I didn't really have this anyway so didn't miss it, then in the next bemoaning the loss of this due to WFH! So yes, going to work with a large and lively team is evidently my communal experience in normal times, but I know how lucky I am to have a job at all and to be able to continue working at present.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:06:20 GMT
I'd certainly like a share in a business that specialises in training people to work from home effectively, although that was already a trend before the virus (TfL had noted commuting in London dropped 5% while employment maxed out). I can't yet see how that isn't good news for the arts - instead of going how exhausted from work and having a pinged dinner in front of the tv, more people will surely need to escape the work/home for gossip and general sanity. I'm also quite hopeful the trend towards a shorter working week, spending part of the week at home, and better integration of childcare (inc. term-time only) will gain more impetus. Perhaps the greatest shift could be away from the growth model; we have all the wealth we need to create a fair and well funded social settlement - Germany and France are already way down that path from the UK. It might be the Green New Deal gets a new life. In terms of London, I'd cancel the new hotels, convert them to social housing and introduce quotas for tourists. Enough of this lunatic allure of growth. theatres rely on tourists - less tourists means some theatres will get demolished. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 16:09:25 GMT
That's what I'm hoping will happen. I've long maintained that greater flexibility over working is the way to go, and most of what has stood in the way is management who are convinced that it's simply impossible for any business to operate without fixed office hours for everyone. The current situation has not only shown that everything doesn't instantly grind to a halt but it's also demonstrated that for the people who do still need to commute the journey is far faster and more pleasant when there are fewer people doing it. Everyone ends up happier and in many cases financially better off, and it costs the business essentially nothing apart from the initial setup costs. So I'm hoping that this will be a permanent end to the rush hour as we know it. Not everyone ends up happier or better off - to assume so hugely underestimates the mental (and in some cases physical) impact this current lockdown is having on a lot of people, particularly those who live alone. But that's a consequence of the lockdown. It's not what working from home is usually like. I work from home and live alone, but that usually gives me extra time to go out of the house during the week that I never had when I was going into an office and not getting home until 18:30 at the earliest. I'm suffering terribly from the lockdown but that's not because I'm working from home. It's because I'm everything from home. Anyway, I was thinking of it as more of an option than a requirement. That's why I said there should be greater flexibility. Some people don't have any convenient place they can work at home and an office is far better for them; some people find it a pain having to go to work every day and would be better off at home, and some people would like to vary their hours from the standard to better fit in with other demands on their time. What it really comes down to is that I don't think we can put up with the rush hour any longer. It's hugely polluting, we have to invest hundreds of billions in creating infrastructure that's only needed for a few hours a week, and it makes people stressed and unhappy. If we can get more people working from home then even the people who still go into an office will be better off. |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:10:00 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring.
I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:11:47 GMT
Working from home would increase the amount of people who never go out due to lack of friends. My likely future employment is office based but working from home would kill any chance of friendship making.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:12:59 GMT
Anyway in a lot of london majoirty of commuters are the not able to work from home types.
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 16:32:52 GMT
There'll be an effective vaccine by October. I thought I read it would be a year at least given we have no idea how the vaccine will work on a mass scale? Ebola vaccine was fast tracked and developed very quickly; there will be several vaccine candidates (70+ at the moment, of which a few will be successful). Combination therapy with existing anti-malarials and/or HIV treatment will accelerate ability to treat at the scale required. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 16:41:27 GMT
The government is penniless. It's our money. Why do you think interest rates were set at 0.1%? To facilitate near zero borrowing. EU savings compounded over 15 years will clear the debt; some funded venues are so niche, they don't deserve to stay open, and others will need to become more commercial. It'll be hard, but it's not like anybody is to blame. No, niche venues and interests are among those that survive. Look at the changes in the entertainment industry. The larger conglomerates are looking at needing to rapidly downsize in the future, especially those that are vertically integrated. They can release existing product but when cinemas, theatres, gigs, theme parks and so on shrink they are mightily exposed. The heavily leveraged are going to lose out, that’s tough but it’s the nature of rapid changes of direction and focus. What will grow quickly is the artist controlled work, as those who reach directly to their fans have found out over the last decade or so. The ‘niche’ will be a good place to be. Somewhere with an identity like, say, the BAC or the Unicorn Theatre, they are very well placed to be fleet of foot and innovative. The largest of the large, like Disney, can survive in a different form. The middling? Less so. Too big to turn around, too small to cope. The small, commercial concern is the one that needs to think long and hard about what next. People, as the internet has shown, cease to gravitate to the biggest and seek out the smaller and more direct, look at the young and Youtube as some pointer to the future. The world has changed, rail against that if you want but I’m already thinking about how I can navigate it to my advantage. I like your perspective. Not sure anybody is railing against a changed world, nor did anybody say that bigger is better. I think niche art forms will struggle. YouTube is the ultimate in outreach and commercialisation, which kind of reinforces my point about the need to be more commercial. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 16:43:09 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring. I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time. I think the opposite. I think theatre will survive this as it has done in the past. |
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Post by Dawnstar on Apr 11, 2020 17:15:04 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring. I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time. May I ask if you think that's because we will require long-term social distancing measures that will not be compatable with the buildings? Or because of lack of demand? Or because the buildings will fall into disrepair? Or what? Working from home would increase the amount of people who never go out due to lack of friends. My likely future employment is office based but working from home would kill any chance of friendship making. I've been going out to work for 13 years & I still have no friends! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 17:29:50 GMT
I thought I read it would be a year at least given we have no idea how the vaccine will work on a mass scale? Ebola vaccine was fast tracked and developed very quickly; there will be several vaccine candidates (70+ at the moment, of which a few will be successful). Combination therapy with existing anti-malarials and/or HIV treatment will accelerate ability to treat at the scale required. It took five years, from 2014 to 2019, for the Ebola vaccine to be tested and approved. If that's what fast-tracked means then we have a bit of a problem! On 'niche', Youtube shows the atomisation of entertainment. Atomisation, niche, whatever it's called, it's the USP. Take regional theatre, what it needs is to become more regional, less 'let's put on what comes from London'. If people can watch what 'comes from London' on their own screens then they have to change. The mid level commercial theatres will struggle. Receiving houses in particular if they expect to copy what can be streamed from elsewhere. |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 17:32:04 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring. I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time. May I ask if you think that's because we will require long-term social distancing measures that will not be compatoble with the buildings? Or because of lack of demand? Or because the buildings will fall into disrepair? Or what? Working from home would increase the amount of people who never go out due to lack of friends. My likely future employment is office based but working from home would kill any chance of friendship making. I've been going out to work for 13 years & I still have no friends! Lack of demand. |
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Post by Jon on Apr 11, 2020 19:13:49 GMT
I doubt only we'll see 40% of theatres close in the West End or in general.
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 21:48:25 GMT
Ebola vaccine was fast tracked and developed very quickly; there will be several vaccine candidates (70+ at the moment, of which a few will be successful). Combination therapy with existing anti-malarials and/or HIV treatment will accelerate ability to treat at the scale required. It took five years, from 2014 to 2019, for the Ebola vaccine to be tested and approved. If that's what fast-tracked means then we have a bit of a problem! On 'niche', Youtube shows the atomisation of entertainment. Atomisation, niche, whatever it's called, it's the USP. Take regional theatre, what it needs is to become more regional, less 'let's put on what comes from London'. If people can watch what 'comes from London' on their own screens then they have to change. The mid level commercial theatres will struggle. Receiving houses in particular if they expect to copy what can be streamed from elsewhere. Well I must have imagined the vaccine that was being issued out in Sierra Leone to combat the (then) epidemic. Testing and approval for commercial viability are very different to fasttracking in a deregulated country and addressing the urgent needs of the population within. Re: regional theatre, for as long as truck theatre shows exist, the model won't change (or need to change). People still want to see live theatre. All this fatalism around the death of theatre is ridiculous. Mid level commercial theatres will adapt and survive. |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 22:49:03 GMT
I doubt only we'll see 40% of theatres close in the West End or in general. Don't a lot of shows rely on overseas tourists to keep them going in the summer. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 23:19:52 GMT
It took five years, from 2014 to 2019, for the Ebola vaccine to be tested and approved. If that's what fast-tracked means then we have a bit of a problem! On 'niche', Youtube shows the atomisation of entertainment. Atomisation, niche, whatever it's called, it's the USP. Take regional theatre, what it needs is to become more regional, less 'let's put on what comes from London'. If people can watch what 'comes from London' on their own screens then they have to change. The mid level commercial theatres will struggle. Receiving houses in particular if they expect to copy what can be streamed from elsewhere. Well I must have imagined the vaccine that was being issued out in Sierra Leone to combat the (then) epidemic. Testing and approval for commercial viability are very different to fasttracking in a deregulated country and addressing the urgent needs of the population within. Re: regional theatre, for as long as truck theatre shows exist, the model won't change (or need to change). People still want to see live theatre. All this fatalism around the death of theatre is ridiculous. Mid level commercial theatres will adapt and survive. Trials took a few years. I suppose they could rush one for this virus if they look vaguely promising but we could end up with something unsafe as a result. On regional theatre, I'm not talking about places like the Royal Exchange, Bristol Old Vic etc., of course they will be fine and their clear identities will pull them through. Places like Manchester Opera House will struggle for quite a while with the economic hit taken but I'm really talking about the places that get the tribute concerts, the occasional half week of a tour. A number of those are quite likely to shutter. |
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Post by Jon on Apr 11, 2020 23:23:58 GMT
Don't a lot of shows rely on overseas tourists to keep them going in the summer. It doesn't mean theatre owners will be closing up their theatres as they'll always be shows looking for theatres. |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 23:33:29 GMT
Don't a lot of shows rely on overseas tourists to keep them going in the summer. It doesn't mean theatre owners will be closing up their theatres as they'll always be shows looking for theatres. Not if it is uneconomical for shows to run in the west end. |
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Post by Jon on Apr 12, 2020 0:00:15 GMT
The West End and theatre in general will be fine, it will take a hit but it has managed to adapt, survive and even thrive through the decades and centuries after things like wars, plagues, terrorism and economic downturns, it'll be no different now.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 2:27:22 GMT
The West End and theatre in general will be fine, it will take a hit but it has managed to adapt, survive and even thrive through the decades and centuries after things like wars, plagues, terrorism and economic downturns, it'll be no different now. Agreed - it just needs to adapt and my best guess is that means a resurgence in popular plays with a small number of characters and where possible, a decent bit of stunt casting. If this is the way forward, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of audience they try to attract - will younger members of the public be more inclined to go to the theatre to see a ‘name’? In terms of musicals I’d be really surprised to hear of any new (and not yet announced) productions coming any time soon. Best guess is they send something popular to the regions and transfer musicals into town. I wouldn’t discount an increase in the number of one off concert style musicals either - I guess they’re relatively low cost for a decent return? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 4:25:56 GMT
I see doom-prediction is a growing industry these days.
This isn't like a war or a hurricane where there's widespread destruction and a need for a programme of rebuilding before everything can get back to normal. All the infrastructure and resources are still there; it's just that some things are mothballed for a while. Once this is over people will want a return to normality. They'll want the same services as before, and the people who had the skills to deliver those services will still be out there and will still have those skills.
There will be some changes in the details, obviously. Businesses with high fixed costs may run out of money and get snapped up by other businesses that are managing better. Perhaps new companies will be formed to take up the space left by those who have failed. But it's not like everything has been flattened and we have to start again.
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Post by ceebee on Apr 12, 2020 7:55:39 GMT
Well I must have imagined the vaccine that was being issued out in Sierra Leone to combat the (then) epidemic. Testing and approval for commercial viability are very different to fasttracking in a deregulated country and addressing the urgent needs of the population within. Re: regional theatre, for as long as truck theatre shows exist, the model won't change (or need to change). People still want to see live theatre. All this fatalism around the death of theatre is ridiculous. Mid level commercial theatres will adapt and survive. Trials took a few years. I suppose they could rush one for this virus if they look vaguely promising but we could end up with something unsafe as a result. On regional theatre, I'm not talking about places like the Royal Exchange, Bristol Old Vic etc., of course they will be fine and their clear identities will pull them through. Places like Manchester Opera House will struggle for quite a while with the economic hit taken but I'm really talking about the places that get the tribute concerts, the occasional half week of a tour. A number of those are quite likely to shutter. I can only go on my own first hand experiences regarding Ebola, which focused on Sierra Leone. Unless my mind plays tricks on me, the vaccine was effectively deployed in communities along with some combination therapies. Of course, if your experience was different, you will have a different perspective. Medical trials happen in stages, and part of the trial phasing is to do patient/populace trials (as I'm sure you know). Compare Ebola to the time it took to create a Malaria vaccine (20+ years) and you also know that the timeline varies from disease to disease. The positive about Covid 19 is that science has already worked out the basics, hence why so many vaccine candidates are in the pipeline already. Every vaccine is effectively a coded solution to a medically encrypted disease - scientists have to reverse engineer a vaccine based on how the disease impacts the human body, exposing the patient to just enough of a hit to build immunity without endangering their health or life. Advances in genomics have accelerated vaccine development as the body is now effectively mapped. Stuff that used to take years can now be done in days. Regarding theatres shuttering, again I disagree... The reason being that houses and spaces can (and will) flex to meet the requirements of the new world - whether that is capacity caps, or seating distances. So today's 1000 seater may become a 600 seater, 2000 seater may become a 1000 seater, mid-size venue in a small town that gets tribute concerts or half a week of a tour repositions itself as a venue for up and coming artists/comedians/cabaret. My point is that theatre has reinvented itself for eternity, and it will take a lot more than a pandemic virus to wipe out the purpose and function of a theatre within society (whether West-End, Broadway, local town or end of the pier). |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 12, 2020 8:04:03 GMT
I see doom-prediction is a growing industry these days. This isn't like a war or a hurricane where there's widespread destruction and a need for a programme of rebuilding before everything can get back to normal. All the infrastructure and resources are still there; it's just that some things are mothballed for a while. Once this is over people will want a return to normality. They'll want the same services as before, and the people who had the skills to deliver those services will still be out there and will still have those skills. There will be some changes in the details, obviously. Businesses with high fixed costs may run out of money and get snapped up by other businesses that are managing better. Perhaps new companies will be formed to take up the space left by those who have failed. But it's not like everything has been flattened and we have to start again. Totally agree. The doom-mongering is ridiculous. It's as if theatres were only built after the growth in mass air travel and somehow the tourist pound is the only thing that keeps theatre afloat. As with any supply and demand business, theatre will adapt to market conditions. Perhaps, just perhaps, we might see a decrease in some of the greedy dynamic pricing that has whored theatre off to the highest bidder, so the days of more realistic / flatter pricing models result in lower profitability and certain producers might need to trade helicopters every three years instead of every other year. Also, a downturn is an excellent time for those with deeper pockets to ride out the storm and make strategic decisions for the future. Take the two of the biggest theatre owners in London... Both in their 70s, both billionaires. What if they just decided to bequeath their theatres on peppercorn rents for a period of (say) twenty years after their demise? Totally possible. Giving back a longlasting legacy to an industry that created their wealth. I'm big believer in philanthropy and know that the likes of CamMack / ALW already do tons for the industry, but if there was an existential threat to the survival of theatre (which there won't be) I am sure they would step up long before any such threat killed live theatre as we know it. |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 12, 2020 9:37:37 GMT
I can see Broadway streaming shows in the UK to replace the need for Brits to go the USA.
I doubt anyone in the uk will go to new york just to be a tourist for a very long while.
Places like Majorica will only be for tourists who can go by boat or private jet - many don't think cheap flights will resume on economic or environmental grounds,
Sorry to be harsh but the world has changed permanently a lot more than many on here are ready to accept.
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