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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 12:05:26 GMT
It's all speculation but to give a less pessimistic view - when I speak (virtually) to friends, one thing that comes up all the time is how much people miss communal experience, whatever that might be - the pub, parties, clubs, gigs, cinema and theatre; one person who is a confirmed atheist even said she feels sad walking past churches and feels a need to go inside and find a service she can join. There seems to be a general craving to experience things together in a way that technology just can't replicate. And many people, particularly in London, are working from home being paid exactly the same and therefore are saving loads of money because there's nothing to spend it on currently. I can easily foresee a huge splurge on all the things we've missed when restrictions are lifted and a greater appreciation of them. Yes, there will probably be a residual nervousness about big gatherings amongst some people for a while since we are now internalising a sense that other people are potentially dangerous to us and us to them, but people are generally adaptive and forgetful; the new normal quickly pushes out the old normal, as these strange days show. I will certainly be back in the theatres as soon as they open. And definitely pubs and restaurants as well, I have already had enough of my own cooking. And I predict there will be queues around the block for a haircut as soon as the hairdressers open again...! Most of the companies working from home now will still have to make job cuts or go bust in the next two years. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:18:07 GMT
basdfg I think that's unnecessarily apocalyptic and certainly not the view of my employer.
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Post by Mark on Apr 11, 2020 12:22:36 GMT
basdfg I think that's unnecessarily apocalyptic and certainly not the view of my employer. I think it’s realistic actually. My company currently employs 45,000 people. Many 10s of thousands of other jobs depend on my company. Analysts advise we won’t hit 2019 levels again until atleast 2023. Every business will need to adapt and cut costs |
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 12:23:25 GMT
basdfg I think that's unnecessarily apocalyptic and certainly not the view of my employer. Depends on what your industry is. Those who tend to suffer in a recession will still suffer but others will cope well. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:24:07 GMT
Adapt and cut costs yes. Sack everyone and/or go under no.
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Post by horton on Apr 11, 2020 12:44:07 GMT
I've seen too many recessions to think the Arts won't get the sh*t kicked out of them. I agree that at times like this, tastes become more conservative. The metropolitan working from home experience is not shared by the vast majority of the country.
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Post by NeilVHughes on Apr 11, 2020 12:44:20 GMT
Working from home will likely become the norm with maybe one day a week on site for supporting and head office functions.
I work for a company which has more than 3000 employees based in the head office and when on site hot desk and therefore working from home from a facilities perspective is no different.
Read somewhere that it cost between £10K to 15K per employee for office space and therefore an easy cost saving for the business. With one day on site split between the functions for one to ones and team meetings etc office space could be reduced by 80%
The other side now without my 1hr commute each way the added time is something I do not want to give up and as my role is computer and phone based, what advantage is there for being on site, SAP and Microsoft Office/Teams works just as well at home as in whatever desk I end up using in the office and spend most of my time talking to people in the manufacturing sites and regional sales functions than I do with my colleagues on site.
Back to the original topic, a lot of life is habit and it takes about 3 months to break or build a habit which will be about the length of the lockdown. We are all building new habits our lives are changing and we are becoming ever so slowly slightly different people.
The passions we generate to get us through will likely continue and our values will change, not all of us, less likely for boarders will find going to the Theatre, Movies, eating out not as important as a month ago.
I will likely go back to my pre lockdown frequency but as my love of cycling has been reignited my Sunday at the Globe, Barbican and any others that have the Sunday option will be reduced or more likely stop as I enjoy the time on my bike and if I do no longer commute the last minute on my way home impulse buys will also likely reduce.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:52:56 GMT
The people/businesses who think they can go back to how things were are going to mostly fail, those that adapt to changed circumstances will prosper. What was normal is now gone, to be replaced by something different. Maybe only for a decade, maybe only for five or so years, but people have decided to put their own health over other people’s wealth and this will remain.
I posted on another thread that theatre can adapt by running a live production that is also streamed. The economics of this will mean shorter runs, given that more can see them in fewer performances, and many people will continue to stay inside in most circumstances (I’m guessing maybe a third of the population, including most of the older clientele that many theatres rely on, will do that). If the economics of that can create some sort of parity as BC, then all is not lost.
To try and go back to what we had before will be economically impossible. The same will be found in other areas of business.
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Post by Rory on Apr 11, 2020 13:07:44 GMT
Surely it might not be as long as 5 years or a decade if a vaccine can be found which is proven to be effective? Although, yes, we're going through a collective trauma which we won't be able to process fully for some time, and priorities and outlooks will change, how could they not after this fearful experience?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 13:17:38 GMT
Surely it might not be as long as 5 years or a decade if a vaccine can be found which is proven to be effective? Although, yes, we're going through a collective trauma which we won't be able to process fully for some time, and priorities and outlooks will change, how could they not after this fearful experience? There never having been a successful coronavirus vaccine for humans gives cause for concern, the difficulty of creating them is clear. Everyone will be working on it but By 2021, fully tested and cleared, would be a real bonus. I’m less convinced of a long lasting vaccine, Covid 19 apparently mutates slower than Influenza but it is likely that (as with immunity) vaccines will also need to adapt. |
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Post by londonpostie on Apr 11, 2020 13:19:54 GMT
I'd certainly like a share in a business that specialises in training people to work from home effectively, although that was already a trend before the virus (TfL had noted commuting in London dropped 5% while employment maxed out).
I can't yet see how that isn't good news for the arts - instead of going how exhausted from work and having a pinged dinner in front of the tv, more people will surely need to escape the work/home for gossip and general sanity.
I'm also quite hopeful the trend towards a shorter working week, spending part of the week at home, and better integration of childcare (inc. term-time only) will gain more impetus.
Perhaps the greatest shift could be away from the growth model; we have all the wealth we need to create a fair and well funded social settlement - Germany and France are already way down that path from the UK. It might be the Green New Deal gets a new life.
In terms of London, I'd cancel the new hotels, convert them to social housing and introduce quotas for tourists. Enough of this lunatic allure of growth.
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Post by lynette on Apr 11, 2020 13:22:12 GMT
I was thinking that the office blocks could be turned into housing. Difficult to imagine gov affording the cost for social housing but some scheme might be thought of.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 13:35:01 GMT
Working from home will likely become the norm with maybe one day a week on site for supporting and head office functions. That's what I'm hoping will happen. I've long maintained that greater flexibility over working is the way to go, and most of what has stood in the way is management who are convinced that it's simply impossible for any business to operate without fixed office hours for everyone. The current situation has not only shown that everything doesn't instantly grind to a halt but it's also demonstrated that for the people who do still need to commute the journey is far faster and more pleasant when there are fewer people doing it. Everyone ends up happier and in many cases financially better off, and it costs the business essentially nothing apart from the initial setup costs. So I'm hoping that this will be a permanent end to the rush hour as we know it. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 13:48:43 GMT
Following the uniquely massive financial stimulus and support for those who can't work, the government will be penniless. Expect savage cuts to all "non-essential" services, including to the Arts: a swathe of funded venues and companies face closure. If you thought austerity was bad... The government is penniless. It's our money. Why do you think interest rates were set at 0.1%? To facilitate near zero borrowing. EU savings compounded over 15 years will clear the debt; some funded venues are so niche, they don't deserve to stay open, and others will need to become more commercial. It'll be hard, but it's not like anybody is to blame. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 13:54:09 GMT
It will be interesting what happens when the first Country defaults on its debt. From the IMF Jan 2019: Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017. On average, the world’s debt now exceeds $86,000 in per capita terms, which is more than 2½ times the average income per-capita. Debt is even higher now, a house of cards waiting to collapse. Not sure how this will affect Theatre but turbulent times ahead and I definitely will need a functioning Theatrical scene as a distraction. Just print more money and manage a graduated devaluation of the currency in question. For UK? Manageable. For EU? Terminal. The EU won't survive this and the turmoil will be on mainland Europe over coming years. Brexit was already a huge blow, but that looks like tiddliwinks compared to Covid. €500bn stimulus fund is nothing - they can't react quickly enough and should be fronting up €2tn. Same as in the US - bigger economic machines get exposed very quickly if contraction is rapid and a vacuum like crash causes evonomic implosion and domino effect of closure, job losses, foreclosure/bankruptcies, date dependency, state poverty, hyperinflation, civil unrest. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 13:56:02 GMT
I'd certainly like a share in a business that specialises in training people to work from home effectively, although that was already a trend before the virus (TfL had noted commuting in London dropped 5% while employment maxed out). I can't yet see how that isn't good news for the arts - instead of going how exhausted from work and having a pinged dinner in front of the tv, more people will surely need to escape the work/home for gossip and general sanity. I'm also quite hopeful the trend towards a shorter working week, spending part of the week at home, and better integration of childcare (inc. term-time only) will gain more impetus. Perhaps the greatest shift could be away from the growth model; we have all the wealth we need to create a fair and well funded social settlement - Germany and France are already way down that path from the UK. It might be the Green New Deal gets a new life. In terms of London, I'd cancel the new hotels, convert them to social housing and introduce quotas for tourists. Enough of this lunatic allure of growth. Wrong. London needs as much investment as it can muster to insulate itself from the global headwinds of deep recession. |
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Post by ceebee on Apr 11, 2020 13:57:06 GMT
Surely it might not be as long as 5 years or a decade if a vaccine can be found which is proven to be effective? Although, yes, we're going through a collective trauma which we won't be able to process fully for some time, and priorities and outlooks will change, how could they not after this fearful experience? There'll be an effective vaccine by October. |
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Post by talkingheads on Apr 11, 2020 14:06:25 GMT
Surely it might not be as long as 5 years or a decade if a vaccine can be found which is proven to be effective? Although, yes, we're going through a collective trauma which we won't be able to process fully for some time, and priorities and outlooks will change, how could they not after this fearful experience? There'll be an effective vaccine by October. I thought I read it would be a year at least given we have no idea how the vaccine will work on a mass scale? |
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Post by crowblack on Apr 11, 2020 14:21:32 GMT
I posted on another thread that theatre can adapt by running a live production that is also streamed. The economics of this will mean shorter runs, given that more can see them in fewer performances, and many people will continue to stay inside in most circumstances (I’m guessing maybe a third of the population, including most of the older clientele that many theatres rely on, will do that). If the economics of that can create some sort of parity as BC, then all is not lost. I think they should have been doing this anyway. I'm part of an arts group for people with disabilities, and for those with physical and mental disabilities, physical access to theatres has always been a problem, while in a recent survey of representation/casting in roles on screen, while great strides have been made in the representation of other groups (BAME, gay etc.), people with disabilities were the most proportionally underepresented group of all. Access is also an issue with those with the usual issues of age: for examnple, my Mum would never have been able to sit through one of those Schaubuhne performances, very long with no interval, but she was able to watch them on screen last week, with pauses for loo, walkabouts and food breaks. And it has always been an issue for those on low incomes, living outside cities, and from families with no history of theatregoing or taking their kids to the theatre. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 14:21:47 GMT
Following the uniquely massive financial stimulus and support for those who can't work, the government will be penniless. Expect savage cuts to all "non-essential" services, including to the Arts: a swathe of funded venues and companies face closure. If you thought austerity was bad... The government is penniless. It's our money. Why do you think interest rates were set at 0.1%? To facilitate near zero borrowing. EU savings compounded over 15 years will clear the debt; some funded venues are so niche, they don't deserve to stay open, and others will need to become more commercial. It'll be hard, but it's not like anybody is to blame. No, niche venues and interests are among those that survive. Look at the changes in the entertainment industry. The larger conglomerates are looking at needing to rapidly downsize in the future, especially those that are vertically integrated. They can release existing product but when cinemas, theatres, gigs, theme parks and so on shrink they are mightily exposed. The heavily leveraged are going to lose out, that’s tough but it’s the nature of rapid changes of direction and focus. What will grow quickly is the artist controlled work, as those who reach directly to their fans have found out over the last decade or so. The ‘niche’ will be a good place to be. Somewhere with an identity like, say, the BAC or the Unicorn Theatre, they are very well placed to be fleet of foot and innovative. The largest of the large, like Disney, can survive in a different form. The middling? Less so. Too big to turn around, too small to cope. The small, commercial concern is the one that needs to think long and hard about what next. People, as the internet has shown, cease to gravitate to the biggest and seek out the smaller and more direct, look at the young and Youtube as some pointer to the future. The world has changed, rail against that if you want but I’m already thinking about how I can navigate it to my advantage. |
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Post by showgirl on Apr 11, 2020 14:52:17 GMT
It's all speculation but to give a less pessimistic view - when I speak (virtually) to friends, one thing that comes up all the time is how much people miss communal experience, whatever that might be - the pub, parties, clubs, gigs, cinema and theatre; one person who is a confirmed atheist even said she feels sad walking past churches and feels a need to go inside and find a service she can join. There seems to be a general craving to experience things together in a way that technology just can't replicate. And many people, particularly in London, are working from home being paid exactly the same and therefore are saving loads of money because there's nothing to spend it on currently. I can easily foresee a huge splurge on all the things we've missed when restrictions are lifted and a greater appreciation of them. Yes, there will probably be a residual nervousness about big gatherings amongst some people for a while since we are now internalising a sense that other people are potentially dangerous to us and us to them, but people are generally adaptive and forgetful; the new normal quickly pushes out the old normal, as these strange days show. I will certainly be back in the theatres as soon as they open. And definitely pubs and restaurants as well, I have already had enough of my own cooking. And I predict there will be queues around the block for a haircut as soon as the hairdressers open again...! Unlike you, @abby, though I miss cinema and theatre, I have no sense of communal experience to miss as I don't like crowds and almost always go to the cinema and theatre alone and walk alone, too, when I go out for long walks. (Tried many groups but they all messed around.) I do however agree about saving money and as well as making judicious (I hope!) donations, I'm putting as much as possible into my savings account, in addition to the monthly standing order. Anything extra will probably help if/when we are able to move house but I will resume cinema- and theatregoing when it becomes possible, because to me they're life-enhancing. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 14:58:01 GMT
This is a fascinating thread.
Unfortunately politics and economics are not areas I understand well enough to have a strong opinion on what the world and theatre will look like after this. Though I fully agree that everything will be very different.
Finding myself persuaded by one argument above then the next person saying the opposite and also finding their explanations convincing. Confusing!
Like ticket prices - have to go up for theatres to finally make money again and make putting on shows economical? Makes sense. But having to go down - to encourage a (mainly) reluctant public back into these overcrowded cramped buildings - also makes sense!
My own hunch - prices will go down - just my guess though.
As for the type of shows - I'd LOVE it to lead to more diverse stuff. I don't think it will sadly. I think films plonked on stage, low quality jukebox and stunt casting is gonna be worse than ever! As that seems to be where the £££ are. Hope I am wrong....
And something that does make me particularly sad - I think the economic inequality in our country will worsen. Those in safe jobs and industries are at home spending very little as nothing to do, while others are losing so much. I have a dream of a rebuilt labour party coming to victory at the next election and addressing these things to the extent that is possible. But that's off topic.
Anyway, overall, for me, the re-opening of theatres can't come soon enough and I'll be there on day 1 if not at work!
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Post by showgirl on Apr 11, 2020 14:59:05 GMT
NeilVHughes I fear you are right about WFH becoming the new norm though I really hope you are wrong as I hate it and going into the office and engaging with my lovely colleagues is one of the many things I love about my job. However, I'm with you on the modifying habits slightly in that having Saturdays free for walking (usually one of my cinema/theatre days) would be great as then I could get a cheap train ticket and a better service than when I can only have a weekend walk on Sundays. At present, of course, using public transport is a no-no.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 15:05:41 GMT
showgirl Me too - much prefer theatregoing solo! But I still miss the communal experience of being part of an audience, or being in a pub by myself with a book and having the hubbub of conversations going on around me. Other people can be hideously annoying at times, but I'm missing that sense of being alone in a crowd now, as opposed to just being alone. Conversely, I am massively missing the ability to get out of London once a week and have a long country walk by myself - there is nowhere quiet to walk round my way at the moment! Edited to add - also completely with you on wfh,I've also hated it and miss the office now. I'm much less productive at home and I find video meetings so tiring and inefficient - it feels a lot harder to get things done and I'm also getting so much extra screentime because of them that my eyeballs feel like they are melting by the end of the day. And having work in my home is not good - I like clear bluewater between the two.
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Post by jojo on Apr 11, 2020 15:10:44 GMT
It won't be a quick come-back.
Working age people who might be less worried about personal health will be more careful with money. Yes, there are those who have continued to earn, whilst saving on commuting, holidays and socialising, but many more who lost their jobs, or will be mindful that it could happen. People who didn't previously care about having savings will take it more seriously, and a lot of people planning on having their kitchen done will wait an extra year to be on the safe side. In other words, it's not just the money lost from the economy during lock-down, people will be more cautious with money once it ends. If those who could afford to spend did so, it would help, but they need to be assured that others will do the same.
Financially secure pensioners and everyone with a relevant health problem will be more worried about going to the theatre, even if they can afford it. I'm not sure how significant the coach trips for matinees are, but expect less of them.
It's likely to be a phased approach to leaving lock-down, and theatre is likely to be later in the process, but perhaps smaller theatres could open first? Would it be reassuring or worrying for theatre goers if tickets were sold for every second row only, with at least one empty seat between groups?
Tourism is likely to stay reduced for some time, so theatre that is pitched much more at locals is likely. Will the cancelling of the Edinburgh Festival create some new opportunities in other cities? The fact that many people will continue to home work at least some of the time could be very relevant, and as noted above, works both ways. A trip to central London at the weekend might be more appealing if you've not been there all week.
I agree that there will be a trend for safer theatre, with lower risks and running costs. Possibly smaller casts too. I wonder if staging will be adjusted to keep actors safer?
Panto will be an interesting one. If it's mainly younger children and their younger parents, then they might be more willing to accept the risks, but there's bound to be plenty who decide to leave it this year, and that goes extra for trips with grandparents.
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