19,790 posts
|
Post by BurlyBeaR on Jan 11, 2020 14:01:08 GMT
Choose who you think ‘should’ be rather than a prediction of who ‘will’ be but feel free to add your prediction about who will actually win to the discussion.
|
|
7,189 posts
|
Post by Jon on Jan 11, 2020 15:23:54 GMT
I think Angela Rayner has been quite canny going for the Deputy leadership because it means she can gain experience without being under as much scrunity and also since I doubt Labour will win the next election, it’ll set her up nicely to take over whoever wins this leadership contest
Oh, and Keir Starmer will most likely win the current leadership contest
|
|
4,993 posts
|
Post by Someone in a tree on Jan 11, 2020 15:28:00 GMT
Jon I think you are right. We will have 10 years of Boris. Sigh.
|
|
|
Post by learfan on Jan 11, 2020 17:46:14 GMT
Poisoned chalice as the earliest Labour have a chance is 2029,by which time they could have gone through three or four leaders!
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2020 18:01:59 GMT
I think Angela Rayner has been quite canny going for the Deputy leadership because it means she can gain experience without being under as much scrunity and also since I doubt Labour will win the next election, it’ll set her up nicely to take over whoever wins this leadership contest Oh, and Keir Starmer will most likely win the current leadership contest The Labour Deputy Leader hasn't really succeeded the Leader since 1980 when Michael Foot took over from James Callaghan. Being the Deputy could mean you are aligned with the leader and if he leader doesn't do well then you can be tarred with the same brush. If the leader does well and thus wins the election then that leader carries on and when they step down there may be other better options to take over. We haven't really heard about people standing on a joint ticket either. Personally I'd think there will be some balance across the party viewpoints on Leader and Deputy if you have a centralist leader then deputy is more left wing and vice versa. I personally think Sir Kier is the best choice, he has an authority about him and I think people would trust him plus he's headed up the CPS so has experience of running things. Jess Phillips as a fellow Brummie is my Dark Horse and she could engage with people across the party spectrum. I wouldn't under estimate her. As a Conservative voter my dream choice is RBL as she is a Corbynite.
|
|
950 posts
|
Post by vdcni on Jan 11, 2020 19:03:43 GMT
Starmer for me. I like Jess Phillips but I think Starmer has the best chance of saving the party from the Corbynite losers.
|
|
|
Post by Nicholas on Jan 11, 2020 21:15:43 GMT
Long-Bailey, or it WILL be the death of the Labour party. Alas…
Labour are the party of Keir Hardie, of Clem Atlee, of Nye Bevan. It was founded upon basic Socialist principles.
In a two-party system, in which Labour stands for the Left against the Tories standing for the Right, there’s wiggle-room. As they did under Blair, they can move to the centre if that’s what the nation wants or need, as long as there’re still left-leaning. In a two-party system, we just need strong leftism vs strong rightism.
I might be wrong, however, but I counted between 4 and 7 parties debating on the telly this election.
The Lib Dems are a centre-left party.
Why, then, are the Hardieists and Atleeists of the non-centre-left Labour looking for a centre-left leader?
Simple: half the party are in the wrong party. That, and First Past the Post is the problem.
OBVIOUSLY it would be flat-out wrong to say First Past The Post is why Labour lost – whilst we’re diagnosing that disaster, to blame FPTP would be to miss the millions of other points, not least a confused hard-left/centre-left mishmash of a party competing with other mishmashed leftists. However, I believe FPTP is why the left lost.
The simple existence of tactical voting shows how fundamentally rotten our left’s identity has been. It should be flat-out inconceivable to vote for one party in lieu of another. My local Lib Dem was asking me to vote for him instead of a 4-day week and mass renationalisation, because apparently left-wing is left-wing – just as I shouldn’t vote for my local Green, despite the bloody obvious difference between the two party’s green policies. Left-wing parties shouldn’t be interchangeable. Up until 2015 and Corbyn, they somewhat were, and I was very happy to vote for lefter-than-Labour local Lib Dem David Rendell especially in lieu of the non-candidate Labour shunted into my constituency. Really, up until Corbyn, to some extent the Lib Dems and Labour WERE interchangeable.
Indeed, when the Lib Dems did so well in 2010, it was largely on the back of a principle that their party should never have contemplated – tax-payers pay tuition fees – yet Labour, if they stuck to their founding principles, should never have bloody implemented in the first place. Under a two-party system, Blair had the ability to slide to the centre, as he somewhat DID embody all the left. Therefore, Blair, um, made mistakes. Clegg (it’s bizarrely thanks to him) slid into Labour’s further-left gap which, at the time, was more electable (amongst a certain demographic, at least – a demographic who wants and needs Hardieism). He showed we can and should differentiate our leftist parties.
Corbyn proved so popular amongst new Labour voters as, for the first time in many of our lives, the identity Labour was founded on was back in the mainstream, back in the party. Owen Smith? An identity-less nonentity, with only the vaguest guiding principles. Corbyn? He harked back to Hardie.
If we have two left-wing parties (and, um, don’t we have several?), isn’t it important for each of them to have their own actual identity? And is the identity of Keir Hardie’s party REALLY Keir Starmer? Don’t his centrist, but nonetheless liberal and democratic, principles fit better somewhere else?
Whilst this has hurt the left, it’s positively poisoned the right. After the Lib Dems and the DUP, this is the fourth coalition the Tories have entered into in the last 9 years – albeit unofficially. A good hard-right party should be proud to stand strong against the centre-right Tories, state their case for their existence, and receive the votes they rightly (or wrongly) deserve – so why did Farage stand down his MPs in Tory seats? There are milquetoast centrist remainer Tories who won, because a hard-right nationalist stood his party down in their seats. Apparently, the entire spectrum of the right is interchangeable. And who can blame them when, in 2015, the Tories flat-out stole UKIP’s raison d’être just to win a majority, even though UKIP are a hard-right party who should win or lose votes on their own damn merit? The fact that we have no successful centre-right party – despite having plenty of successful centre-right politicians in the Tory party – is a product of our desperate clinging to FPTP, our anachronistic notion that we have one right-wing versus one left-wing. Who are the Tories anymore? And depending on the success of Farage’s new party, or potentially the emergence of grassroots environmental or pro-EU right-wingers, who will they be, come the next election?
In Labour, there is only one Hardieist running for Labour leader. Anyone but her might be a sticking plaster for the left, but will only damage the Labour party more long-term. Under Blair, Labour were the only viable left-wingers, and the centre-left was pushed more to the right; under Blair, the party’s origins got smudged. If we are a two-party system, Labour should heed the way the wind is blowing and elect the most electable left-ish figure. If we are more than a two-party system, our left should differentiate itself with confidence and clarity.
There is, I admit, a depressing possibility that Hardieism is dead, and therefore Labour is dead, or at least Long-Bailey’s Labour are a minority party. If so, so be it – progress happens in strange ways. For the left, acknowledging this change will help in the long-term, even if it ends up electing the Lib Dems over Labour. The existence of two near-identical left-wing parties zigzagging between centrism and hard-leftism depending on where the wind is blowing is genuinely hurting the left; the presence of so many centre-leftists, not in our centre-left Liberal Democrat party but our hard-left Labour party, is frankly baffling. The left, however, is in total as strong as ever.
I realise that, in some ways, I’m actively advocating for the defeat of the Labour party. I feel, however, I’m actually advocating for the victory of the left – albeit not in the form we maybe expected. Swinson’s Lib Dems are left rudderless now we said bollocks to their “Bollocks to Brexit” campaign, yet centre-leftism is as strong as ever. Corbyn’s win over Owen Smith showed a desire to keep Labour traditionally Labour. If Labour give up on Hardieism, the left will never recover. If Labour elect Starmer and Starmer wins in 2024, the Lib Dems will have won – the centre-left will have won, at least. If the Lib Dems elect Starmer and Starmer wins in 2024, the Lib Dems will have won – the centre-left will have won, but with the hard left as allies and challengers. Hell, the likes of Starmer want a clear break from Corbyn. What could be a clearer break?
Therefore, the answer to me is simple. Long-Bailey simply HAS to lead the Labour Party; Keir Starmer should defect and run for the Lib Dems instead.
That, and our voting system needs to be reformed, to represent the diversity of the left, open up the diversity of the right, and represent the reality of our 7+ party system today. Anything less will destroy the Labour party, and potentially rot the left, as it’s already saved the Tory party, but rotted the right.
But congrats to Starmer on winning this election, and congrats to bloody Johnson for trouncing an identity-less Labour party and an inefficient holistic left in 2024...
|
|
19,790 posts
|
Post by BurlyBeaR on Jan 11, 2020 22:13:46 GMT
I saw one of Iain Dale’s All Talk chat shows today at the Lowry, he was interviewing Jess Phillips. I went because I’ve built up a bit of a dislike to her for various reasons so I went to see if this changed my mind. It did, somewhat. She’s very engaging and quite funny. But she is insistent that she won’t change anything about herself if she becomes leader or subsequently PM and while she could get away with that as leader of opposition, and be fantastically entertaining opposite BJ, she’s not going to get away with it as a PM. She was also rubbish on the two foreign policy questions she was asked.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2020 22:38:58 GMT
Historically I would never have voted labour, to me their track record everytime they're in power is too bad. However I was impressed watching Jess Philip's being interviewed. She has charisma and a directness I liked. I'd like her to be the leader and see what she can do in the role.
|
|
19,790 posts
|
Post by BurlyBeaR on Jan 11, 2020 22:40:54 GMT
Historically I would never have voted labour, to me their track record everytime they're in power is too bad. However I was impressed watching Jess Philip's being interviewed. She has charisma and a directness I liked. I'd like her to be the leader and see what she can do in the role. Were you at the Lowry today too @rnc?
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2020 22:42:15 GMT
no, just seen her on TV interviews.
Theres something fresh and different about her. Kier just seems to be more of the same
|
|
311 posts
|
Post by olliebean on Jan 11, 2020 22:47:30 GMT
She's somewhat less impressive on policy, unfortunately.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2020 22:55:25 GMT
At this stage I dont mind that as I don't think any of them have a clue anyway and theres no election imminent. The party is too messed up, they couldnt provide clarity during an election so I certainly dont expect a new leader to be clear on that. She is just the first labour person I've watched and i thought, 'yeah theres something about you I could potentially vote for' and I'd like to see where she would take the party.
|
|
584 posts
|
Post by princeton on Jan 11, 2020 23:00:40 GMT
Isn't the Lowry Centre in Rebecca Long Bailey's constituency - or at least very close by? Interesting that Iain Dale should choose to interview Jess Phillips there (though I suspect she might sell more tickets than RLB).
|
|
19,790 posts
|
Post by BurlyBeaR on Jan 11, 2020 23:23:10 GMT
Isn't the Lowry Centre in Rebecca Long Bailey's constituency - or at least very close by? Interesting that Iain Dale should choose to interview Jess Phillips there (though I suspect she might sell more tickets than RLB). Yes it is. The Lowry is on salford docks and she recently lied about her father being made redundant from his job there. A couple of her constituency members made negative comments about her today. The All Talk series is published as a podcast so this will turn up on line in due course if anyone’s interested. Iain Dale started it at the last Edinburgh Fringe and had a good run of guests including Jess Phillips so today was her second appearance on it. I can recommend his For The Many pod too, which he cohosts with ex Home Secretary Jacqui Smith who is MUCH more fun these days!
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2020 1:49:39 GMT
Interesting dilemma: should Tories all pony up £25 and get a vote, then vote the for leader least likely to appeal to the electorate at the next election? A fair few probably joined up to vote for Catweazle Corbyn but i'd think that if a lot of people from Strong Tory areas suddenly signed up the Labour Party would suss something was up.
|
|
1,863 posts
|
Post by NeilVHughes on Jan 12, 2020 8:44:25 GMT
Votes by Labour Leaders: Jeremy Corbyn 2019: 10,295,607 Jeremy Corbyn 2017: 12,878,460 Ed Miliband 2015: 9,347,273 Gordon Brown 2010: 8,609,527 Tony Blair 2005: 9,552,436 Tony Blair 2001: 10,724,953 Tony Blair 1996: 13,518,167 If we now take that Jeremy Corbyn is the political equivalent of the anti-Christ we can only assume with the increasing Labour vote in the 2000’s there is increasing support for ‘far-left’ policies. I am with Nicholas , Labour needs to remain a pure Left Party and develop a true alternative vision to the Tory Party who have dug a monsterous hole for themselves with Austerity and Brexit and if successfully held to account the house of cards they have created will collapse. To me this I believe was the failure of the Labour strategy, Corbyn in the same way as Leave supporters believed his/their position was so obvious that only the message needed to be communicated and not the nullification of the opposing view. In all honesty I am not not sure of all the ‘favourite’ contenders who will be able to counter the well honed Tory propaganda machine where untruths are so prevalent that traditional Politics has been undermined to such an extent that political discourse is futile. (Labour misleading ads 0, Tory misleading ads 88%) My choice will unlikely make it through the Parliamentary process and is such a ‘left-field’ candidate, for him this may be an election to lose but do hope his time will come. ‘far-left’ is a misnomer, the Labour strategy is to align ourselves with the norm in Europe, especially the Nordic Countries which consistently record the best living standards and happiness levels. The Nordic Countries combine free market capitalism with a comprehensive welfare state and collective bargaining at the national level, which offers a healthy, safe, and well-grounded lifestyle. The Nordic Countries also have a high percentage of workers belonging to a labor union, shorter days in the office, and longer paid vacations, freeing up more time to actually enjoy life. Nordic people don’t mind the tax burden so long as it directly correlates to their overall well-being. The next Leader needs to promote this vision, educate people there is another way, and break the myth that Socialism equals Communism.
|
|
|
Post by Mr Snow on Jan 12, 2020 13:14:15 GMT
Votes by Labour Leaders: Jeremy Corbyn 2019: 10,295,607 Jeremy Corbyn 2017: 12,878,460 Ed Miliband 2015: 9,347,273 Gordon Brown 2010: 8,609,527 Tony Blair 2005: 9,552,436 Tony Blair 2001: 10,724,953 Tony Blair 1996: 13,518,167 If we now take that Jeremy Corbyn is the political equivalent of the anti-Christ we can only assume with the increasing Labour vote in the 2000’s there is increasing support for ‘far-left’ policies. I am with Nicholas , Labour needs to remain a pure Left Party and develop a true alternative vision to the Tory Party who have dug a monsterous hole for themselves with Austerity and Brexit and if successfully held to account the house of cards they have created will collapse. To me this I believe was the failure of the Labour strategy, Corbyn in the same way as Leave supporters believed his/their position was so obvious that only the message needed to be communicated and not the nullification of the opposing view. In all honesty I am not not sure of all the ‘favourite’ contenders who will be able to counter the well honed Tory propaganda machine where untruths are so prevalent that traditional Politics has been undermined to such an extent that political discourse is futile. (Labour misleading ads 0, Tory misleading ads 88%) My choice will unlikely make it through the Parliamentary process and is such a ‘left-field’ candidate, for him this may be an election to lose but do hope his time will come. ‘far-left’ is a misnomer, the Labour strategy is to align ourselves with the norm in Europe, especially the Nordic Countries which consistently record the best living standards and happiness levels. The Nordic Countries combine free market capitalism with a comprehensive welfare state and collective bargaining at the national level, which offers a healthy, safe, and well-grounded lifestyle. The Nordic Countries also have a high percentage of workers belonging to a labor union, shorter days in the office, and longer paid vacations, freeing up more time to actually enjoy life. Nordic people don’t mind the tax burden so long as it directly correlates to their overall well-being. The next Leader needs to promote this vision, educate people there is another way, and break the myth that Socialism equals Communism. Is it fair of me to state that Corbyn, RLB, Momentum etc do not have any belief in "free market capitalism" as a basis for paying for state expenditure? As Will Hutton wrote the week after the election, more equality does not require a massive shift to state ownership. I've been looking with interest at the Nordic Model. Definitely the parties in power are more Social Democrat/Centre Left than Trotskyists. It is a measure of how far Momentum have control of The Labour Party that so far almost all the candidates for leadership are careful to show praise for Corbyn, rather than setting out a new direction for the party. I would vote in a General Election for Jess Phillips. In every interview I've read she's expressed her own strong opinions, while recognising the need for cooperation within her party and her country.
|
|
|
Post by orchidman on Jan 12, 2020 13:55:33 GMT
Votes by Labour Leaders: Jeremy Corbyn 2019: 10,295,607 Jeremy Corbyn 2017: 12,878,460 Ed Miliband 2015: 9,347,273 Gordon Brown 2010: 8,609,527 Tony Blair 2005: 9,552,436 Tony Blair 2001: 10,724,953 Tony Blair 1996: 13,518,167 If you want to know how meaningful those numbers are, that electoral phenomenon John Major holds the all-time record with 14,093,007 in 1992.
|
|
1,863 posts
|
Post by NeilVHughes on Jan 12, 2020 14:01:24 GMT
I think free market capitalism for state expenditure is an interesting subject and has to be split between natural monopolies and general infrastructure projects.
Where we have natural monopolies - Electricity generation and distribution - Water - Railways - Health Service
In these there is no real competition and the myth we have been told is that the State cannot ‘manage‘ and we need the ‘professionals’ from the Private sector. In these instances we take money away from the core services to pay the Private sector for the privilege of their competence. Every pound in profit these private companies make is money that we the consumers have to pay for. I have not seen any figures that show the profits are from the efficiencies within the Private sector only that in these natural monopolies the price we pay is consistently above inflation as money that could have been reinvested or used to keep down prices is now siphoned off into the Private sector.
We are one of only a few Countries that do not have all or some of these services controlled by the State and the irony is that a large proportion of these UK natural monopolies are owned and run by the State owned providers of Germany, France and China.
Where no natural monopolies exist - House building - Road building
Here there is enough competition and opportunities for the Private sector to provide different solutions and price points with the only caveat that the State has to set and ensure adherence to minimum standards.
This is not a definitive list of natural and non-natural monopolies and sure there are many I have missed but an analysis of the reason why Labour/Momentum favour state ownership where natural monopolies exist.
|
|
2,340 posts
Member is Online
|
Post by theglenbucklaird on Jan 12, 2020 22:06:33 GMT
Votes by Labour Leaders: Jeremy Corbyn 2019: 10,295,607 Jeremy Corbyn 2017: 12,878,460 Ed Miliband 2015: 9,347,273 Gordon Brown 2010: 8,609,527 Tony Blair 2005: 9,552,436 Tony Blair 2001: 10,724,953 Tony Blair 1996: 13,518,167 If we now take that Jeremy Corbyn is the political equivalent of the anti-Christ we can only assume with the increasing Labour vote in the 2000’s there is increasing support for ‘far-left’ policies. I am with Nicholas , Labour needs to remain a pure Left Party and develop a true alternative vision to the Tory Party who have dug a monsterous hole for themselves with Austerity and Brexit and if successfully held to account the house of cards they have created will collapse. To me this I believe was the failure of the Labour strategy, Corbyn in the same way as Leave supporters believed his/their position was so obvious that only the message needed to be communicated and not the nullification of the opposing view. In all honesty I am not not sure of all the ‘favourite’ contenders who will be able to counter the well honed Tory propaganda machine where untruths are so prevalent that traditional Politics has been undermined to such an extent that political discourse is futile. (Labour misleading ads 0, Tory misleading ads 88%) My choice will unlikely make it through the Parliamentary process and is such a ‘left-field’ candidate, for him this may be an election to lose but do hope his time will come. ‘far-left’ is a misnomer, the Labour strategy is to align ourselves with the norm in Europe, especially the Nordic Countries which consistently record the best living standards and happiness levels. The Nordic Countries combine free market capitalism with a comprehensive welfare state and collective bargaining at the national level, which offers a healthy, safe, and well-grounded lifestyle. The Nordic Countries also have a high percentage of workers belonging to a labor union, shorter days in the office, and longer paid vacations, freeing up more time to actually enjoy life. Nordic people don’t mind the tax burden so long as it directly correlates to their overall well-being. The next Leader needs to promote this vision, educate people there is another way, and break the myth that Socialism equals Communism. Is it fair of me to state that Corbyn, RLB, Momentum etc do not have any belief in "free market capitalism" as a basis for paying for state expenditure? As Will Hutton wrote the week after the election, more equality does not require a massive shift to state ownership. I've been looking with interest at the Nordic Model. Definitely the parties in power are more Social Democrat/Centre Left than Trotskyists. It is a measure of how far Momentum have control of The Labour Party that so far almost all the candidates for leadership are careful to show praise for Corbyn, rather than setting out a new direction for the party. I would vote in a General Election for Jess Phillips. In every interview I've read she's expressed her own strong opinions, while recognising the need for cooperation within her party and her country. Read your last paragraph again. Is that possible to type with a straight face? Didn't you read what Nicholas said?
|
|
|
Post by Mr Snow on Jan 13, 2020 11:58:48 GMT
Is it fair of me to state that Corbyn, RLB, Momentum etc do not have any belief in "free market capitalism" as a basis for paying for state expenditure? As Will Hutton wrote the week after the election, more equality does not require a massive shift to state ownership. I've been looking with interest at the Nordic Model. Definitely the parties in power are more Social Democrat/Centre Left than Trotskyists. It is a measure of how far Momentum have control of The Labour Party that so far almost all the candidates for leadership are careful to show praise for Corbyn, rather than setting out a new direction for the party. I would vote in a General Election for Jess Phillips. In every interview I've read she's expressed her own strong opinions, while recognising the need for cooperation within her party and her country. Read your last paragraph again. Is that possible to type with a straight face? Didn't you read what Nicholas said? He brought lots of HIS opinions about what the Labour party needs to be, without mentioning Phillips directly. I brought MY opinion and tried to justify why. YOU bring nothing but insult. Goodbye.
|
|
|
Post by sparky5000 on Jan 13, 2020 14:35:35 GMT
I’d like to see Lisa Nandy or Jess Philips! Not gonna happen tho .... failing that then Keir Starmer isn’t the worst shout. Rebecca Long Bailey I think would be a terrible choice. A continuity Corbynite and also she’s massively lacking in charisma and I think that really does matter.
|
|
7,189 posts
|
Post by Jon on Jan 13, 2020 15:29:55 GMT
I think Lisa Nandy may pull an upset over Rebecca Long Bailey but I think Keir Starmer is more likely to clinch it.
|
|
2,340 posts
Member is Online
|
Post by theglenbucklaird on Jan 13, 2020 19:51:31 GMT
Read your last paragraph again. Is that possible to type with a straight face? Didn't you read what Nicholas said? He brought lots of HIS opinions about what the Labour party needs to be, without mentioning Phillips directly. I brought MY opinion and tried to justify why. YOU bring nothing but insult. Goodbye. Because it was funny fella, would you say Ms Phillips has practiced as she is preaching?
|
|