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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 19, 2021 18:47:33 GMT
There was a comment in that thread that healthy young people are more at risk from lightning strikes than the virus. That's as may be, but they forget the risk of infecting other people. Indeed. The reason this pandemic hasn't ended isn't the people who die; as far as the virus is concerned they are literally a dead end. It's the people who live and spread it who keep the pandemic going. The only way this will end is when either we get the reproduction rate of the disease down below 1 and keep it there, or we get a dominant strain that's innocuous enough that we no longer need to fight it. The only one of those that is in our hands is the first. Is that true you are more at risk of lightning? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2021 18:52:20 GMT
Is that true you are more at risk of lightning?
"In the UK in the past 30 years (1987-2016), 58 people were known to have been killed by lightning, that is, on average, two people per year. The average annual risk of being struck and killed was one person in 33 million. If only the past ten years are considered, a period with fewer average lightning deaths, the risk was one person in 71 million."
So I'd say the lightning claim is untrue, as I'm pretty sure more than three young and healthy people have died from Covid-19.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 19, 2021 19:11:03 GMT
Apparently the new version is more contagious (but much milder) and we are all going to get it. there's no evidence supporting any of this at present There's certainly evidence that it's much more infectious. Whether or not it's milder is still inconclusive. |
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Post by zahidf on Dec 19, 2021 19:12:54 GMT
Well there we have it. A Photo of Boris at a party during lockdown (this was when you could only meet one other person outside last year)
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Post by sfsusan on Dec 19, 2021 19:37:21 GMT
generally things could be worse. Well, that's certainly a low bar. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 19, 2021 19:37:21 GMT
It's certanly a popular mainstream media narative. [...] It's strange sometimes to think that maybe, just maaaybe, eveything is not a catastrophe And sometimes something isn't just a "media narrative" and maybe, just maaaybe, it genuinely is serious.
If you don't understand something you can't have your own opinion of it; all you can have is the opinion someone else has persuaded you to have. But if you do understand it you can have your own opinion and you don't need to let someone else tell you what to think. I've understood this stuff since I was at school. Not the specifics of this particular disease, obviously, but the general mathematical principles governing the spread of infectious diseases that applies to this coronavirus just as much as to every other infectious disease. It's not what I see in the media that concerns me. It's what I see in the data. And right now the data is saying that too few people have been vaccinated for the vaccine to do the job we need it to do. The data says this strain is more viral but less dangerous. It stays more as a cough rather than progressing to the lungs. That means infections are even less of a guide than before.
We have anti-viral drugs, we have oral drugs, we have better knowledge: how many Nightingale hospitals are you seeing this winter across the country on your social media accounts. How many call-outs asking for former NHS staff to return.
On Friday, approx. 10-12 double-vaxed people died of Covid-related symptoms in the UK.
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 19, 2021 19:41:13 GMT
Well there we have it. A Photo of Boris at a party during lockdown (this was when you could only meet one other person outside last year) He likes to party, party |
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Post by sfsusan on Dec 19, 2021 19:43:11 GMT
there's no evidence supporting any of this at present There's certainly evidence that it's much more infectious. Whether or not it's milder is still inconclusive. "Covid-19 cases in the UK soared past 93,000 to reach a record high for the third consecutive day on Friday, as (Imperial College) researchers warned there was “no evidence” that Omicron was milder than the Delta variant." www.ft.com/content/020534b3-5a54-4517-9fd1-167a5db50786 |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 19, 2021 19:44:58 GMT
generally things could be worse. Well, that's certainly a low bar. Strange post, I'm comending postie. That is one serious glass half full |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 19, 2021 19:45:48 GMT
There's certainly evidence that it's much more infectious. Whether or not it's milder is still inconclusive. "Covid-19 cases in the UK soared past 93,000 to reach a record high for the third consecutive day on Friday, as (Imperial College) researchers warned there was “no evidence” that Omicron was milder than the Delta variant." www.ft.com/content/020534b3-5a54-4517-9fd1-167a5db50786I was just going to post that report |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 19, 2021 19:51:16 GMT
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 20:01:05 GMT
The key word in this is 'may' there is far more at play with severe covid than just infectivity of lung tissue. The report goes onto mention this. Effectively what this report does confirm is that the virus replicated faster, they've then gone on to suggest a further hypothesis with regards to severity that is not proven in this paper |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 19, 2021 20:03:32 GMT
It's a response to "there is NO EVIDENCE". Science takes a while, unlike the hair-on-fire Twitterati.
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Post by jamie2c on Dec 19, 2021 20:35:45 GMT
Apparently the new version is more contagious (but much milder) and we are all going to get it. there's no evidence supporting any of this at present Surprise, surprise# ] Yes there is - Omricon up to 70 times more infecteous- |
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 19, 2021 20:42:48 GMT
I had pretty much no symptoms at all after my first Pfizer, slightly sore arm and a bit tired but that was it. So far I'm on sore arm & not exactly a headache but a sort of woolly-headed feeling. Though it's difficult to know if that's entirely due to the vaccine or partly due to tiredness, as I didn't sleep well last night due to pre-jab nerves. |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:02:46 GMT
there's no evidence supporting any of this at present Surprise, surprise# ] Yes there is - Omricon up to 70 times more infecteous- I was referencing disease severity here as opposed to infectivity apologies |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 19, 2021 21:13:33 GMT
You wrote "any of this"
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Post by zahidf on Dec 19, 2021 21:13:51 GMT
Worth noting that South Africa is turning (without them putting restrictions in) and there hospitlisations are a lot lower
And
For some reason, the UK are using models excluding this..
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 19, 2021 21:18:41 GMT
Some might say the political policy in the UK might be to rachet up sentiment as a way to stimulate those - who have so far been reluctant- into getting jabbed. Some might then say social media responds by embracing the potential, but increasingly less likely, catastrophe.
All of which would make it an interesting example of using the very excitable social media hair-on-fire brigade for the common good.
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Post by crowblack on Dec 19, 2021 21:24:22 GMT
I had pretty much no symptoms at all after my first Pfizer, slightly sore arm and a bit tired but that was it. So far I'm on sore arm & not exactly a headache but a sort of woolly-headed feeling. Though it's difficult to know if that's entirely due to the vaccine or partly due to tiredness, as I didn't sleep well last night due to pre-jab nerves. Try to take it easy over the coming days if you can. I also found I was a bit clumsier during the week so left doing the dishes to someone else! |
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Post by crowblack on Dec 19, 2021 21:28:00 GMT
Some might say the political policy in the UK might be to rachet up sentiment as a way to stimulate those - who have so far been reluctant- into getting jabbed. Some might then say social media responds by embracing the potential, but increasingly less likely, catastrophe.
All of which would make it an interesting example of using the very excitable social media hair-on-fire brigade for the common good.
And meanwhile the leaking of photos of Downing Street gatherings that took place months ago look timed to encourage anti-lockdown sentiment and keep everything open (I happen to think that's a bad thing). |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:38:17 GMT
Feel free to take a look at my other posts in this thread over the past few days which should confirm this. It was a simple wording error, my apologies |
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Post by jamie2c on Dec 19, 2021 21:42:09 GMT
Surprise, surprise# ] Yes there is - Omricon up to 70 times more infecteous- I was referencing disease severity here as opposed to infectivity apologies Apology accepted. Would you like me to disprove the second part of your claim now ? |
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:49:57 GMT
I was referencing disease severity here as opposed to infectivity apologies Apology accepted. Would you like me to disprove the second part of your claim now ? I'm more than happy to be proved wrong on the severity side, in fact I'd love to be given the way things are going. What's super important to remember in all this though is that you have to look at this through the lens of previously unifected individuals, infected with a new variant and compare this to a similar sample being infected with the original variant . Decreased hospitalisation/mortality rates in a population with some level of immunity, be that through prior infection or vaccination, isn't indicative of decreased variant severity, it's indicative of increased levels of immune response. At present, from the research I've looked at, this appears to a key driver in what we're observing in South Africa. If you do have research that indicates something else though, I'd really love to have a read as it's all pretty interesting |
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Post by Dawnstar on Dec 19, 2021 22:37:53 GMT
Try to take it easy over the coming days if you can. I also found I was a bit clumsier during the week so left doing the dishes to someone else!
Unfortunately we have our Waitrose pre-Christmas delivery at 9am tomorrow! Booked back in October. Not looking forward to an hour or two of bleaching groceries with a sore arm.
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