Getting recreation and leisure up and running again.

How do you work that out? Fewer than 2000 people died in car accidents in the UK last year.

Dependent on age, of course - eg according to the professors who wrote this, the risk of dying of coronavirus is approximately equal to the risk of death in a car accident, for those of student age: voxeu.org/article/covid-19-pandemic-causing-crisis-uk-universities-0 

In other words, comparing the people with the highest risk of dying in car accidents with the group least at risk from dying of Covid-19. It seems blatantly dishonest to simply say "Driving is more dangerous" while disingenuously leaving out the qualifier that the overwhelming majority of the population has been left out of the equation and the tiny subset that has been retained is exactly that subset that most skews the result.

We are experiencing a different environment from March.

- The at-risk population are shielding.
- Less people are at work.
- Socially distanced cafes / restaurants / pubs.
- A predominantly cautious population.
- Social life can be lived outside.

At the moment we have a certain demographic continuing to take risks or having to take risks which keeps the infection rate constant or drifting upwards who are predominately the young / low-risk or those having to work in the gig economy as they cannot work from home which is reflected in the mortality and hospitalisation figures.

What even a small increase shows is that even with the draconian controls above COVID remains prevalent and this is the danger.

It does not matter if rates of infection is rising due to testing as it is the debunked Trump argument, infected people exist whether we test or not, the only difference is they have been identified and hopefully controlled.


The truth is that when Autumn arrives in a few week’s time we have a larger base infected population than Feb/Mar meaning when we return to the office, socialise inside or have just had enough it won’t take much to lose control of infection rates.

I do not often agree with this Government but at the moment delaying indoor Theatre for a few more week’s is a no-brainer, between now and the end of Sep determines the Winter we will experience.

We need to be extremely cautious and do all we can in the next few week’s to drive down the infected population in a similar way to Scotland and Wales.

Do go out, do enjoy yourselves only be cautious, limit interactions with strangers, follow infection control best practice but whatever you do not let down your guard as the line between the second wave and ‘new-normal’ is a fine one which at the moment we are most probably on the wrong side of.

Getting recreation and leisure up and running is in our hands as long as we reduce infection rates, at the moment believe it is about 1 in 1,500 who are infected and therefore there is statistically an infected person in every West End Theatre operating at full capacity.

It's true that there's been an increase in testing but it doesn't explain away the rise in cases. We have 25% more testing now than a month ago (7 day average to 3rd August and 3rd July; 139k to 174k) but a 41% increase in cases (same range; 590 to 833).

Reassuringly, the number of deaths isn't rising at all. That may be because the NHS is no longer stretched to the limit and is now able to offer better care to everybody, Covid-19 patients and everyone else alike.

Excellent points as always Phantom but didn't or weren't we supposed to socially distance from end March until well into May or do you mean a stricter lockdown as some of the big Eurpean Countries did?

Most have been able to escape the virus since March, allied with both government and self imposed measures this has artificially dampened its spread. By far the main driver has been keeping people from getting together indoors. By far.

Up here in West Yorks, as press have reported, our new cases are a result of the domino effect, which takes some weeks to start to become apparent. People who have limited symptoms, who are asymptomatic and who are not decreasing their mobility have kept this steady low level transmission increasing. Children, young people, indoor pub/restaurant goers and holidaymakers ensuring spread around the country and coming in from international destinations. This then spread through public facing workers, taxi drivers are being particularly hard hit here, for example. Most are Asian, many are in multigenerational households.They do a lot of airport runs and, for myself, I’ve seen the high numbers of taxis ferrying young pub goers who abide by no distancing or masks. Within the few days where these public facing workers have no symptoms it rips through their families.

The virus is biding its time, waiting for the opportunity. We didn’t get the rate of transmission down anywhere near enough to stop this. When people get together, in indoor spaces, without masks, talking to each other, it spreads and, through aerosolisation, it remains in that space in a viable form for much longer than thought.

Put people back in indoor spaces in numbers and you are in trouble. Do it without respect for masks and you are doubly so. Guess what the UK government’s plan is as we move into September?

I’m not sure whether to be saddened, unsurprised or shocked that people don’t yet understand the way that the virus travels through air and hangs there. This is why scientists need to be more visible and not governments.

A more fluffy piece on this.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02058-1

Much more technical but this is a pretty unanimous view among scientists in this area.
www.medscape.com/viewarticle/934837?src=uc_mscpedt&faf=1#vp_1

Referred to as ‘the smoking gun’, Study that shows virus remains viable and able to replicate in aerosol form.






In simple form, what not to do.




If I could get anything through to people for the coming months, it is this. Don’t gather in groups indoors, invest in air filtration systems. If you can’t, then you must wear masks.

Well I’m very sorry if you're saddened, surprised or shocked but the fact of the matter is that not everyone is as “into” this as some people seem to be. some people are just following the instructions and trying not to allow this disease to be the sole focus of their existence. 

Either way your earlier post, without any supporting facts to back up your statements, potentially fell into the scaremongering and misinformation category which we’ve asked people not to do. 

Thanks for the detail now provided. 

The rules about scaremongering and misinformation are the same for everyone. There isn’t a two tier system where some members are taken at face value as being reliable where others are not. You’re just like the rest of us, someone on a forum with an opinion. In the case of the post I referred to you were talking about the disease “ripping through families”, personifying the virus by implying that it has an intent “biding it’s time” “waiting for an opportunity “, all  arguably inflammatory and have the potential to induce anxiety in people who read. We have reports from people who have complained about this sort of thing, and as a result some members have been warned and ultimately banned. People must back up their ‘facts’ with sources and where posts are felt to be deliberately trying to frighten people they’ll be removed. 

Oh I completely understand, and I'm glad they are. It's just cinemas are in the particularly tricky situation of needing to sell food and drink or else they go out of business and that simply doesn't work with masks!