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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2019 23:34:00 GMT
I'm not sure they are, tbh. A lot of it is bound to be guesswork, and from past experience when pollsters guess most of them tend to do so in favour of the Tories.
Unfortunately my constituency is one where Labour possibly could have beaten the Tories were it not for the Lib Dems (a very distant 3rd place in 2017) weaponising the idea of tactical voting and blitzing the area with leaflets talking up their chance of winning and rubbishing Labour's. As it is, even allowing for polling guesswork the anti-Tory vote looks likely to be split right down the middle and the seat will be held by the Tories.
You in FGG? Sounds a bit like mine, olliebean. Finchley and Golders Green has been polled twice, Labour have been third both times. Same for others in London like Wimbledon and Kensington. On the other hand seats like Putney and Chingford have Labour best set. The fear is that people only look at 2017 results, things have changed a lot. www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/finchley-golders-pollIs polling accurate? I see people on twitter and elsewhere imagining that any error can only hurt the tories, the history shows that it is 50/50 over elections this millennium, though. Pollsters have a habit of over correcting a previous election but they have made every effort to correct last time’s understatement of Labour’s share. Overall, I fear that a lot of Labour working class Northern (and maybe Midland and Wales seats) are going to show massive swings against them. Given that, even the most efficient tactical voting possible might not be enough. EDIT: just checked the tactical vote comparison site, all those giving an opinion say vote Lib Dem so it’s pretty clear cut. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 0:04:54 GMT
Tactical voting would likely help the Lib Dems or even the Greens as people who tend to be strong Tory or Labour voters would likely never consider voting for the main rival. It will be fun to see what happens in the seats where you have Rebel Independents standing and what effect the Brexit party may have on the seats they are standing in.
Scotland is likely to be strongly SNP with them getting upwards of 40 seats but there are 12 seats there where the majority is under 400. The SNP are defending 4 seats with a majority of 75 and under so if there is ever a case to mobilise the votes these will be the seats and the weather could potentially be a factor too.
The key as always will be that rump of marginal seats across the country. Labour and the Tories likely have about 350 safe seats between them which wouldn't normally expect to change hands maybe slightly more so it will be those key marginals where the election will be won.
The Bookies are tipping a Tory majority of around 35 at the moment with Labour not making ground but things could change over the next few days as a few thousand voters switching or not voting.
Both Boris and Jo Swinson should keep their seats so any fun ideas of them eating camel penis in the jungle next year is unlikely.
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 9, 2019 0:18:28 GMT
I've never understood the idea of 'unseating'. If Johnson loses in Uxbridge surely the Party just send someone in a safe seat to the Lords and Johnson jumps in at the by-election ...
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 9, 2019 11:03:03 GMT
My daughter lives in Uxbridge constituency and her and husband have each so far put in more than 50 hours knocking on doors (and both work full time). Even if Labour do not win this election it has created a network of young highly motivated activists for a different way to do politics. Both my young adults have never done any campaigning in the past. This is what gives me hope.
And it would be quite something to be rid of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and some of those other idiots.
I hate the idea of voting Lib Dem but this time I have to. Check your info as close as possible to the date and do what has to be done.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 9, 2019 11:04:37 GMT
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 9, 2019 11:05:52 GMT
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Post by Someone in a tree on Dec 9, 2019 11:07:40 GMT
Arlene foster states Johnson can't be trusted.
Eek. I'm agreeing her. What an earth is wrong with me?
If she got bunged a few more millions would she agree?
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 9, 2019 11:50:58 GMT
tbf, i think most of the electorate, inc. his former wives, got there earlier. It seems Dom Cummings' latest production 'Get Brexit done' (the follow up to the big hit 'Take back control') is doing quite well.
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 9, 2019 12:11:01 GMT
My daughter lives in Uxbridge constituency and her and husband have each so far put in more than 50 hours knocking on doors (and both work full time). Even if Labour do not win this election it has created a network of young highly motivated activists for a different way to do politics. Both my young adults have never done any campaigning in the past. This is what gives me hope. One problem from the Blair years is that they carpet bombed the left, which has left a gaping generational hole. Even at constitiuency level it was hard to get left candidates on the ballot. Corbyn himslef couldn't get - was it 15 members of Parliament - to sign his papers requesting to be included in the Leadership ballot.
What I found remarkable after Corbyn's election, and in the subsequent two campaigns, is the huge investment Momentum has put into training activists, and in every conceivable skill - from the traditional door knocking and board running, to pop up's of all types to chairing meetings and committee's.
From there they turn out on the streets and when before there would be 6 or 8 local die-hards, there are now huge numbers targetting specific areas in key seats.
The people running my constituency party now are all under 35 and they are all professional in their approach. The pace of transition has been somewhat extraordinary - you're also left wondering where on earth they all came from ..
The left has come from needing sympathy votes from MPs in order to get a left candidate on the Leadership ballot to this is 4 years.
Maybe at this election but certainly the next we will see the best coming through into Parliament to fill the void created by Blair.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 9, 2019 12:25:06 GMT
My daughter lives in Uxbridge constituency and her and husband have each so far put in more than 50 hours knocking on doors (and both work full time). Even if Labour do not win this election it has created a network of young highly motivated activists for a different way to do politics. Both my young adults have never done any campaigning in the past. This is what gives me hope. One problem from the Blair years is that they carpet bombed the left, which has left a gaping generational hole. Even at constitiuency level it was hard to get left candidates on the ballot. Corbyn himslef couldn't get - was it 15 members of Parliament - to sign his papers requesting to be included in the Leadership ballot.
What I found remarkable after Corbyn's election, and in the subsequent two campaigns, is the huge investment Momentum has put into training activists, and in every conceivable skill - from the traditional door knocking and board running, to pop up's of all types to chairing meetings and committee's.
From there they turn out on the streets and when before there would be 6 or 8 local die-hards, there are now huge numbers targetting specific areas in key seats.
The people running my constituency party now are all under 35 and they are all professional in their approach. The pace of transition has been somewhat extraordinary - you're also left wondering where on earth they all came from ..
Maybe at this election but certainly the next we will see the best coming through into Parliament to fill the void created by Blair.
Yes, couldn’t agree more. I was her age under Blair but never considered joining a political party, let alone being active. I think social media make it easier. It was very apparent during the 2017 election that the coverage of main stream media was poor (they showed hardly any of the huge outdoor rallies where people were spontaneously flocking to see Jeremy Corbyn) and the young now do not watch BBC news or read newspapers....they have developed their own media. Crowdfunding makes legal challenges possible, people like The Secret Barrister inform (so much so that Boris Johnson stole his analysis by copy and paste) and there is a whole different slant to the news. Even if Labour lose this election we will win the arguments in the long term as Labour have the brightest and the best supporting them You only have to look at the shambles of Government (a NI secretary who didn’t realise people voted down sectarian lines? A Brexit secretary who hadn’t read the Good Friday Agreement? Or realised how much of trade was done through Dover? ) |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 9, 2019 14:40:05 GMT
From this morning. To continue a theme in this thread, I suspect he speaks here not as a Conservative but as a Leaver.
In fact I'm slowly emerging from the other side of this now; having given up the license fee and tv, I am contemplating breaking the law as an act of civil disobedience - the current system is utterly infuriating and unsustainable, made so by BBC partiality: |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 9, 2019 20:29:20 GMT
BBC story is dead cat, thrown out there to distract from Johnson stealing journalist’s phone during an interview...like the bully he is.
They then followed up with another dead cat where Tories fed Laura Kuenssberg a false story that she tweeted out....all lies but claimed a Labour “activist” punched Hancock’s aide.....there was a video of it. Made Kuenssberg and Peston for that matter look like the gullible fools they are....
Look at pictures of the Bristol Corbyn rally (thousands). Look at the number of canvassers who turned up at Putney tonight (hundreds)
It’s a mystery....
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Post by lynette on Dec 9, 2019 20:43:52 GMT
I’ve been around for a few GEs but I can’t recall another so toxic, so unpleasant and full of deceit. Of course i wasn’t there back in the day when they used to roll up and buy the voters a beer but it isn't far off, is it?
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Post by NeilVHughes on Dec 9, 2019 21:24:26 GMT
Such a clusterf*ck of a day for Johnson, the fact that he flew instead of taking his bus for an hours drive is overlooked.
The Conservatives are as contemptuous of green issues as they are of our health and well-being, with the thousands turning out for Corbyn and the continued support for the Conservatives in the polls I can only assume we are a nation suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
Looking back at the momentous 1945 election here are some of the policies introduced
- National Health Service Act
- National Insurance Act (Unemployment benefits, Pensions)
Unemployment Allowance tripled
Welfare services for the elderly, disabled, poor children and those with mental health issues
Pensions increased to their highest levels
Sick leave
- Family Allowances Act
- New Towns Acts
1,000,000 new homes built
- Transport Act
- Education Act providing free education for all until 15
- Married Women’s Act removing restrictions on women owning property
- Criminal Justice Act improving probation services
- Shops Act providing protections for shop workers
- Legal Aid and Advice Act
Attlee was similarly derided as Corbyn but went on to introduce a visionary socialist agenda that set up what we now take for granted as core British values, we rebuilt Britain in 1945 we can do it now again.
When we choose to be radical that is when Britain becomes Great.
As for the cost, can we really afford not to, especially when we consider the Conservatives almost doubled the national debt (from £9.7b to £1.8t) whilst starving public services and increasing poverty. The question that we should be asking is where did this money go as it definitely didn’t improve the life of the many, only the few who have prospered at our expense.
What Labour is proposing is the balancing of this obscene lack of investment over the last 10 years and rebuilding the foundations of the welfare state which have been eroded over the last 30 years.
Sometimes you have to be brave and build the country we deserve and in reality we all believed we lived in, what we all need to do is begin to build that country so that the children of that young child will never have to go through the ignominy that he had to that night.
We would not expect to live in a mansion on the cheap but we all expect to live in a functioning society on the cheap.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 23:07:09 GMT
I’ve been around for a few GEs but I can’t recall another so toxic, so unpleasant and full of deceit. Of course i wasn’t there back in the day when they used to roll up and buy the voters a beer but it isn't far off, is it? 1924, culminating in the Zinoviev Letter. Before any of our times, though. |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 10, 2019 0:30:58 GMT
already posted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2019 8:17:02 GMT
Arlene foster states Johnson can't be trusted. Eek. I'm agreeing her. What an earth is wrong with me? If she got bunged a few more millions would she agree? Problem with that is that anyone sensible in NI knows that Arlene Foster can't be trusted either, so her views mean even less. Sadly I can't see the DUP losing many of their seats (though many people I know are trying very hard to make that happen!), and they are easily malleable by the Tories making the right promises, whether they can be kept or not. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2019 13:03:59 GMT
From this morning. To continue a theme in this thread, I suspect he speaks here not as a Conservative but as a Leaver.
In fact I'm slowly emerging from the other side of this now; having given up the license fee and tv, I am contemplating breaking the law as an act of civil disobedience - the current system is utterly infuriating and unsustainable, made so by BBC partiality: I always said this could be a huge working class vote winner and don't see why we should pay so much to pay a lot of privileged lefties - you Gary Lineker and greedy women - you Carrie Gracie! |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 10, 2019 18:05:29 GMT
urgh, opps
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Dec 10, 2019 19:05:24 GMT
Jonathan Ashworth though. Lol. With shadow cabinet members like that, who needs enemies Jeremy?
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 10, 2019 21:35:28 GMT
Try not to get distracted. it’s all incredibly simple really. Do we want to be a country of “I” and “me” or “us” and “we”. Do we want our society to care for the hopeless and vulnerable or just leave them to die if they are feckless and lazy? Do we want to be kind?
And don’t give me that “we can’t afford it” bu*****t. I just don’t believe you. Not if the alternative is putting up HUGE trade obstacles with our nearest trading partner that will decimate our industries and risk peace in Northern Island.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2019 22:14:51 GMT
Yes, absolutely the last thing we need right now is voters getting distracted by the fact a potential PM is also a potential security hazard! ;-)
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Post by anthony40 on Dec 10, 2019 22:19:38 GMT
Bois Johnson does Love Actually
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Post by Phantom of London on Dec 10, 2019 22:53:40 GMT
The Sun which is part of an organisation that hacks a dead child’s mobile phone.
As I said on another thread and me being a commuter who under the age of 40 reads a newspaper anymore? There circulation is in terminal decline, they’re not significant anymore.
Anyway Boris does look like Scrooge, who incidentally said ‘humbug’ at the murder of Jo Cox, however he doesn’t get cathectic conversion and remains humbug especially if you are one who is vulnerable and/or sick.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 10, 2019 23:33:38 GMT
Yes, absolutely the last thing we need right now is voters getting distracted by the fact a potential PM is also a potential security hazard! ;-) Do you mean Boris Johnson? Who takes Russian money and slipped his minders to party at that house with the Russian? And who refused to publish the report into Russia? And has Cummings as an advisor who has hid splippery hands all over the Vote Leave stuff? And stirs up hate of the Far Right with his comments about immigration? Get a grip. |
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