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Post by sparky5000 on Dec 2, 2019 18:23:02 GMT
I’m just so depressed by this election. I consider myself pretty centre ground when it comes to politics so by default will probably vote for the Lib Dem’s this election, because I can’t stand Corbyn or Johnson. But I’m so uninspired by Jo Swinson and the Lib Dem’s also, and even though I voted remain, and still hope that somehow we can still get that, I don’t particularly like that the Lib Dems would revoke article 50 without even another Referendum. Even though I hated the result, as a democracy, you can’t give the people a vote on something and then refuse to implement if you don’t like the result! But anyway it doesn’t really matter for me, because I live in the Tooting constuency which is a safe Labour seat.
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Post by sparky5000 on Dec 2, 2019 18:26:28 GMT
The way I see it is Blair moved Labour towards the centre and Cameron did the same in order to win. It makes each party more palatable and as a country I think we are starting to sit more in the middle. The overall problem is that Corbyn and Boris are of the more extreme position of their parties and imo the public isn’t interested in a hard left or hard right.... and the Lib Dems have reinvented themselves back into a hard central left position which - Brexit stance aside - quite appeals. No one represents the majority of the country. The Tories might win a small majority, but gone are the days of a decent sweep. It’s all very well trying to represent your party, but when all leaders put their party’s position above one the majority of the country actually wants, you end up with 2019 politics. I think we’ll end up with a small Tory majority and hopefully Labour will realise Corbyn just can’t win and a hard left position just doesn’t work. They need to regroup and rethink. I still blame this entire mess on Labour - including Brexit - as David Miliband was such an obvious party leader and could have beaten Cameron and stopped his second term. I mean why anyone thought Ed could lead is beyond me. I wouldn’t have followed him out of a bloody hedge maze. This, basically! |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 2, 2019 19:43:37 GMT
Why labour? This is the sort of thing that the “young” now watch and that the mainstream media no longer produce. Evidence based. Watch this (excuse the bad language if you don’t like that sort of thing) and then tell me you don’t understand why it has to change A LOT. The middle ground is not going to sort this. novaramedia.com/2019/12/02/housing-is-fked/ |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 20:35:00 GMT
Novara Media is the Fox News of the left. Anyway, seeing as principles are, apparently, ore important than power, I presume that I’m okay to vote for who I want to rather than voting tactically.
Younger people used to wonder how the Conservatives were in power for eighteen years between 1979 and 1997.
This is how.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 2, 2019 21:22:11 GMT
Novara Media is the Fox News of the left. Anyway, seeing as principles are, apparently, ore important than power, I presume that I’m okay to vote for who I want to rather than voting tactically. Younger people used to wonder how the Conservatives were in power for eighteen years between 1979 and 1997. This is how. Did you watch it? What do you think is untrue? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 22:17:42 GMT
Novara Media is the Fox News of the left. Anyway, seeing as principles are, apparently, ore important than power, I presume that I’m okay to vote for who I want to rather than voting tactically. Younger people used to wonder how the Conservatives were in power for eighteen years between 1979 and 1997. This is how. Did you watch it? What do you think is untrue? I wasn't gainsaying the particular video and housing and the baby boomers have been raised by me a number of times here, it should be a massive election issue. Look deeper and you find more troubling views, however. Sarkar is good and a good communicator, Bastani is most definitely not (by the by, both are self described communists). writing dangerous, unsustainable theories that get mixed that with truthful stuff so nobody knows what is right or not. It's the detruthing of journalism. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2019 18:28:18 GMT
If Corbyn loses the election unless there was a chance of another election next spring/summer if we got into hung parliament territory then I'd figure he'd offer up his resignation fairly soon. With Tom Watson stepping down as an MP the Party will need to elect a new deputy and so to both contests at once would seem a no brainer. JC would stay on until a new leader was chosen.
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 4, 2019 8:41:46 GMT
Did you watch it? What do you think is untrue? I wasn't gainsaying the particular video and housing and the baby boomers have been raised by me a number of times here, it should be a massive election issue. Look deeper and you find more troubling views, however. Sarkar is good and a good communicator, Bastani is most definitely not (by the by, both are self described communists). writing dangerous, unsustainable theories that get mixed that with truthful stuff so nobody knows what is right or not. It's the detruthing of journalism. Hmmm. So that video is Ok? I think the BBC has been doing a fine job of both “detruthing journalism” and not bothering to educate us on important matters. Fact check helps but is often given lower prominence than the original piece. An example? Marr and Johnson when Johnson claimed his Queens Speech was blocked by parliament...and Marr said nothing. The whole shebang is complete when no-one believes anything any more and switches off. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 16:02:17 GMT
The Election campaign and all the ramifications of when or will we have one seem to have been going on for weeks, thankfully only a week just over until we hopefully get some stability.
The Bookies are still favouring a Tory majority of 30 to 40 ( 30 in numbers but nearer 40 in practice if the Irish Republican MPs don't take their seats).
Wonder which former MPs we might see in the Jungle next year, Jo Swinson was complaining about not getting on the ITV debate, but we could see her eating Emu penis next year if SNP win her seat again.
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 4, 2019 16:28:07 GMT
The Election campaign and all the ramifications of when or will we have one seem to have been going on for weeks, thankfully only a week just over until we hopefully get some stability. The Bookies are still favouring a Tory majority of 30 to 40 ( 30 in numbers but nearer 40 in practice if the Irish Republican MPs don't take their seats). Wonder which former MPs we might see in the Jungle next year, Jo Swinson was complaining about not getting on the ITV debate, but we could see her eating Emu penis next year if SNP win her seat again. Was going to like this post then remembered you advocated a Tory majority of 30. But the last sentence is very funny |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 4, 2019 16:33:28 GMT
The Election campaign and all the ramifications of when or will we have one seem to have been going on for weeks, thankfully only a week just over until we hopefully get some stability. The Bookies are still favouring a Tory majority of 30 to 40 ( 30 in numbers but nearer 40 in practice if the Irish Republican MPs don't take their seats). Wonder which former MPs we might see in the Jungle next year, Jo Swinson was complaining about not getting on the ITV debate, but we could see her eating Emu penis next year if SNP win her seat again. You are kidding aren’t you? I mean even if Brexit gets “done” by the end of January we have to negotiate a deal with the EU by the middle of the summer (I mean count the weeks they have to do this!)....or it’s cliff edge again at the end of 2020....and if that happens more negotiations after we crash out....and US....and.... Plus I’m not sure all those people freezing on the streets or kids going hungry....are going to be happy with “stability” The way I see it the only good outcome to “get Brexit sorted” is Labour going back, negotiating a soft Brexit (shouldnt be too hard as can copy Norway-style agreement) and putting it back to the people vs remain. Business would like it (at least more than The Conservative offer). Has to be less risky than the half baked plans of the Tories. |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 4, 2019 16:34:51 GMT
Sorry....I’m not quite into comedy mode yet.....  |
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 4, 2019 16:36:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 18:50:14 GMT
I wasn't gainsaying the particular video and housing and the baby boomers have been raised by me a number of times here, it should be a massive election issue. Look deeper and you find more troubling views, however. Sarkar is good and a good communicator, Bastani is most definitely not (by the by, both are self described communists). writing dangerous, unsustainable theories that get mixed that with truthful stuff so nobody knows what is right or not. It's the detruthing of journalism. Hmmm. So that video is Ok? I think the BBC has been doing a fine job of both “detruthing journalism” and not bothering to educate us on important matters. Fact check helps but is often given lower prominence than the original piece. An example? Marr and Johnson when Johnson claimed his Queens Speech was blocked by parliament...and Marr said nothing. The whole shebang is complete when no-one believes anything any more and switches off. The BBC isn’t detruthing, what it is doing is falling prey to both sides-ism, giving equal time to competing views, yet making little effort to analyse and make judgements on them. For years they put in climate change deniers to ‘balance’ an eminent climate scientist. It comes down to fear, they rely on the government of the day so are too scared of going against them. It’s also, as with pretty much all media, guilty of dumbing down. The difficult debates about what next have barely been mentioned, the sheer complexity of trade deals and replacing the EU with British bureaucracy is completely lost to people arguing about what happens in the next few months. |
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Post by lynette on Dec 4, 2019 19:03:19 GMT
A friend told me of a friend of hers, a 25 year man with mild learning difficulties, who didn’t understand the issues of the Election. This is a real condemnation of our media. He ought to be able to watch the telly and be taken through the issues. IMO the telly journos are too cutesy and too fond of themselves, thinking we all know what the ins and outs are. This , if nothing else, will take us go down the road to perdition.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2019 1:38:12 GMT
As I tend to use the bookies odds as a guideline alongside the opinion polls, it reminded me of a story in the Sporting Life in the summer of 1986. The Tories were only quoted as evens for the next election - if you bet £1 and you win you get back £2 - your £1 stake and £1 winnings. A well known racing journalist of the time advised people to take these odds on Mrs Thatcher and you could then emigrate when she likely won the next election.
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Dec 5, 2019 10:05:22 GMT
They really don't make the polls up. Had a call from IPSOS / MORI today, and did an online one last week. !!!??!!! So you're to blame  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2019 21:31:34 GMT
I had a phone call on behalf of the Conservative Party this evening.
I registered with the Telephone Preference Service a long time ago to stop this sort of thing. Obviously you can't expect dodgy companies to pay attention to the law and I've received loads of calls from various suspicious businesses, but it still comes as a bit of a surprise that the Conservatives engage people who couldn't care less about the legality of their actions. Not as much of a surprise as it should be, though.
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Post by londonpostie on Dec 8, 2019 13:31:29 GMT
I don't doubt the pollsters go through the process. In the final 48-hours of the 2017 GE, polling got within 0.5% of the final Conservative vote.
They also underscored Labour by 5%. Which, in some scenarios, is the difference between a majority one way and a majority the other - completely missing minority government.
I'm not sure how the pollsters are reaching an accurate representation of the 3.2 million new voters, or how they understand the huge numbers of undecided/tacticals in the 60 key seats. It's pin a tail on the donkey stuff, imo.
Fwiw, what I have noticed this time that's different - apart from the spectre of Brexit, which is Johnson's single mantra for very good reason - is the vast scale of activism for Labour, and the skill of the deployment of resources.
With 4 days remaining, it seems to boil down to tactical voting - on an unprecedented scale - and whether it will reduce the Conservatives to a minority Gov, or not. People literally all over the country having to hold their nose on this one.
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Dec 8, 2019 13:47:46 GMT
I emailed my MP (Lucy Powell) three times this year asking salient questions about labour’s european policy and never once got an acknowledgement let alone a reply.
Needless to say as soon as the GE was announced she started spamming me like mad.
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Post by NeilVHughes on Dec 8, 2019 13:55:05 GMT
Agree londonpostie remainers and those who want to protect public services need to be savvy and vote tactically in the 60 or so marginal seats, the multitude of tactical voting sites are beginning to fall in line with each other but as always check a few before deciding and there was a good summary in the Guardian today. Likelihood is we heading for a hung Parliament and therefore if worried about some of the Labour policies or Corbyn himself there will be balances in place from the coalitions which form. |
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Post by Latecomer on Dec 8, 2019 17:58:23 GMT
Agree londonpostie remainers and those who want to protect public services need to be savvy and vote tactically in the 60 or so marginal seats, the multitude of tactical voting sites are beginning to fall in line with each other but as always check a few before deciding and there was a good summary in the Guardian today. Likelihood is we heading for a hung Parliament and therefore if worried about some of the Labour policies or Corbyn himself there will be balances in place from the coalitions which form. Guardian was a bit rubbish on tactical recommendations in places. There will be an updated YouGov poll (big one 100,000 people was the last one) on 10th Dec. It does it by constituency....google YouGov election 2019.... suspect that is the best place to go and look when it comes down to making last minute judgements. I am in safe Conservative seat but even Henley has found it hard to stomach the current bunch, so will hold my nose and vote Lib Dem, as they stand a tiny chance. I have gone to “swap my vote” and arranged a swap with a Lib Dem Voter who will hold his nose and vote Labour in his area (it works on good old fashioned honesty) That way I feel a tiny bit better about voting for a party that I do not support. Yes, don’t think there is any chance of Labour Majority Gov but I like their plans for Brexit better than the weird Conservatives ones....could live with a choice of Soft Brexit vs Remain. |
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Post by olliebean on Dec 8, 2019 22:15:53 GMT
I'm not sure how the pollsters are reaching an accurate representation of the 3.2 million new voters, or how they understand the huge numbers of undecided/tacticals in the 60 key seats. It's pin a tail on the donkey stuff, imo. I'm not sure they are, tbh. A lot of it is bound to be guesswork, and from past experience when pollsters guess most of them tend to do so in favour of the Tories.
Unfortunately my constituency is one where Labour possibly could have beaten the Tories were it not for the Lib Dems (a very distant 3rd place in 2017) weaponising the idea of tactical voting and blitzing the area with leaflets talking up their chance of winning and rubbishing Labour's. As it is, even allowing for polling guesswork the anti-Tory vote looks likely to be split right down the middle and the seat will be held by the Tories.
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Post by lynette on Dec 8, 2019 22:58:33 GMT
I'm not sure how the pollsters are reaching an accurate representation of the 3.2 million new voters, or how they understand the huge numbers of undecided/tacticals in the 60 key seats. It's pin a tail on the donkey stuff, imo. I'm not sure they are, tbh. A lot of it is bound to be guesswork, and from past experience when pollsters guess most of them tend to do so in favour of the Tories.
Unfortunately my constituency is one where Labour possibly could have beaten the Tories were it not for the Lib Dems (a very distant 3rd place in 2017) weaponising the idea of tactical voting and blitzing the area with leaflets talking up their chance of winning and rubbishing Labour's. As it is, even allowing for polling guesswork the anti-Tory vote looks likely to be split right down the middle and the seat will be held by the Tories.
You in FGG? Sounds a bit like mine, olliebean. |
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Post by olliebean on Dec 8, 2019 23:30:59 GMT
You in FGG? Sounds a bit like mine, olliebean. Yep, that's the one. Labour are up against it here because of the demographics of the area, but I still reckon they'd have been in with a chance if the Lib-Dems were out of the picture. And I don't think the LDs ever had a chance of winning here, in spite of the dodgy poll result they used on one of their early leaflets, that they don't seem to have managed to reproduce since. |
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Bit of fun anyway ...
