999 posts
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 11:53:08 GMT
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Post by Backdrifter on Mar 15, 2019 11:53:08 GMT
I honestly couldn't care less now whether we stay or leave You should, and will.
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573 posts
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 12:24:28 GMT
Post by Dave25 on Mar 15, 2019 12:24:28 GMT
The EU can still reject an extension. I know a lot of leaders have had enough of this whole situation. In my opinion that would be the best choice, because it would force the UK to hold a 2nd referendum immediately. This was only rejected yesterday, because the UK clearly doesn't understand the situation yet, and every divided politician is trying let it drag on for as long as possible to get their way. If they really understood the deadline, they wouldn't have done that.
If the extension is rejected a hard Brexit is forced. That will change perspective. In any case, also a soft Brexit or a deal Brexit, is still disastrous for the economy and households in the UK and other countries. Any Brexit has only losers.
Nobody wants this. But, at the same time, the EU leaders are too forced into a corner now, and after the 2nd referendum rejection, too scared that a no deal Brexit would happen, so they will probably approve of the extension, in hopes of a cancellation in the future. I hope May's 3rd attempt (she is trying to scare and manipulate people in the UK with the no-deal Brexit too as a strategy) will fail. The EU leaders actions may be guided by fear, I hope the British people won't do the same but instead, reject the deal again. Then the net will eventually close and no other option is left than to cancel Brexit.
Also, about the "ego" question, if there will be some kind of people's vote for or against a new referendum, that basically means the people who voted are admitting they were wrong/not rightly informed/lead by emotion the first time round. That is a public matter, not a government matter. That is more respectful to the people than what is happening now.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 12:46:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 12:46:08 GMT
The EU can still reject an extension. I know a lot of leaders have had enough of this whole situation. In my opinion that would be the best choice, because it would force the UK to hold a 2nd referendum immediately. As it stands, the law is clear - we are leaving with no deal. Even if May’s deal passes on the third vote next Tuesday, we still have to ask the EU for an extension in order to implement it. Our MPs have failed us and placed every ounce of power into the hands of the EU. To say we will not walk away from negotiations with nothing was short of criminal imo - you don’t reveal how much you want something in a negotiation. They haggle better on Bargain Hunt. The best position would have been to win the vote of leaving without a deal, forcing the EU to blink first. Personally I’m hoping the EU don’t give us an extension and we just leave and get on with it. But the decision not to grant an extension doesn’t mean a 2nd referendum at all - the original mandate still stands and that was to leave the EU. If the politicians couldn’t find the best way for us to do that then we have to address that in elections - but it doesn’t and shouldn’t stop Brexit from happening on the 29th March.
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952 posts
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Post by vdcni on Mar 15, 2019 13:00:37 GMT
Yes it's always important in negotiations to leave the option of shooting yourself in the head on the table.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 13:37:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 13:37:00 GMT
Yes it's always important in negotiations to leave the option of shooting yourself in the head on the table. Depends what you’re negotiating 🙈 No deal may not be preferred, but honestly, everyone acts like it’ll be the end of civilisation as we know it. I’m happy with no deal and would prefer to start sorting out the country from that stance, than working off a deal no one likes. We can make it work and shouldn’t be afraid of it.
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573 posts
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Post by Dave25 on Mar 15, 2019 14:52:54 GMT
You should be afraid of it.
This mindset is the cause of the whole problem, people not seeing danger. It has disastrous consequences for households in the UK.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:03:02 GMT
I get the impression a lot of people think that "no deal" means some sort of default position that allows everything to carry on while we sort things out. It doesn't. No deal is like changing your bank and forgetting to update all your standing orders and direct debits: there's not some safety net that kicks in to make sure you don't get all your utilities cut off and don't have your house repossessed.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:14:18 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:14:18 GMT
You should be afraid of it. This mindset is the cause of the whole problem, people not seeing danger. It has disastrous consequences for households in the UK. If it’s not a spider, I’m not afraid of it. My opinion is it’s mindsets like this that have got us where we are - the scare mongering that we shouldn’t leave, that we shouldn’t have no-deal, that we shouldn’t leave with the only deal on the table and the constant support for further referendums. People forget that Britain existed perfectly well without the EU before we were a member - we shall survive leaving it too. There is nothing to fear by leaving because we will get through whatever comes next - what choice do we have but to survive it? We are an island - we can weather a storm. If we get a deal then fine, but people shouldn’t complain about every single scenario and act like there’s a miaracle solution just around the corner that no one has seen yet. There isn’t one and an extension isn’t going to miraculously resolve that. I’m no Tory supporter but May is right in that no deal is better than a bad deal... and pretty much everyone thinks it’s a bad deal. So the path is clear.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:16:37 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:16:37 GMT
I get the impression a lot of people think that "no deal" means some sort of default position that allows everything to carry on while we sort things out. It doesn't. No deal is like changing your bank and forgetting to update all your standing orders and direct debits: there's not some safety net that kicks in to make sure you don't get all your utilities cut off and don't have your house repossessed. I don’t get that impression at all. But people act like if they forgot to change their direct debit details, the world comes crashing down and it’s game over. You deal with your mess and carry on with life.
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2,762 posts
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:19:41 GMT
Post by n1david on Mar 15, 2019 15:19:41 GMT
I’m no Tory supporter but May is right in that no deal is better than a bad deal... . Oddly enough she hasn't said that for a while... Maybe she doesn't believe it? Maybe she never did.
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4,156 posts
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:20:14 GMT
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Post by kathryn on Mar 15, 2019 15:20:14 GMT
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952 posts
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Post by vdcni on Mar 15, 2019 15:28:04 GMT
The argument that we were fine before the EU and can be again so no deal will be fine so spectacularly misses the point I despair sometimes.
The point is that we have existed within the EU for 40 years and therefore all our trade deals and agreements are through the EU (which has a hell of a lot more bargaining power than we will on our own). No deal puts us immediately back to square one and then have to negotiate our way from there so there will be a major economic shock and many other things like medical supplies will be put at risk. Even the ardent Brexiters starting saying it would take 30 odd years to get back to what we have got now.
And what actual benefit do we get from this 30 years of struggle, who knows.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:30:38 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:30:38 GMT
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:34:30 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:34:30 GMT
The argument that we were fine before the EU and can be again so no deal will be fine so spectacularly misses the point I despair sometimes. The point is that we have existed within the EU for 40 years and therefore all our trade deals and agreements are through the EU (which has a hell of a lot more bargaining power than we will on our own). No deal puts us immediately back to square one and then have to negotiate our way from there so there will be a major economic shock and many other things like medical supplies will be put at risk. Even the ardent Brexiters starting saying it would take 30 odd years to get back to what we have got now. And what actual benefit do we get from this 30 years of struggle, who knows. Personally I think that simplies thar argument, and quite ignorantly suggests supporters of a no-deal haven’t a clue what they’re talking about. Trade will not be prohibited. We can still trade. Will things get more expensive? Sure, some things will. But we knew that before we had the referendum and we still chose to leave.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 15:38:41 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 15:38:41 GMT
I should point out I don’t think no-deal will be a walk in the park. But it’s not the end of Britain, and I support the idea that we can get through it - it’s the idea that we can’t that I challenge. Every obstacle has a way of overcoming it.
The irony of course is we opted to leave the EU, but this week have handed back all control to the EU on how we exit and now need to ask them nicely for an extension. You can’t make it up.
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952 posts
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Post by vdcni on Mar 15, 2019 15:53:54 GMT
Well the walk in the park argument is what was originally sold to us about the negotiations and new trade deals, hasn't quite worked like that has it.
And I've seen lots of arguments along the lines, we survived the Blitz and the War so we can survive this, and it will be good for the younger generation to toughen up. Mostly from middle age men who weren't born until after the war, and completely ignores the struggles of that generation but never mind.
And as I say when even the Brexiters have moved to the it will take 30-40 years to get back to where we were which apparently every one who voted leave understood, yeah right, I just wonder what actually is it that is going to make potentially writing off a whole generations future worthwhile but no one can seem to give an actual concrete reason for that.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 16:00:25 GMT
Yes it's always important in negotiations to leave the option of shooting yourself in the head on the table. Depends what you’re negotiating 🙈 No deal may not be preferred, but honestly, everyone acts like it’ll be the end of civilisation as we know it. I’m happy with no deal and would prefer to start sorting out the country from that stance, than working off a deal no one likes. We can make it work and shouldn’t be afraid of it. I don't want to our lives to be made worse than they need to be and I definitely don't need other people telling me that I should.
On May's deal, I agree that it should be binned but for one simple reason only and that is nothing to do with its own merits (we are past that). It has been destroyed and to try and pick it out of the bin, smooth it out and pretend that it was okay all along will not wash with anyone. Not remainers, not leavers.
All those politicians who have switched to the same deal as now being absolutely fine when they had previously trashed it need to answer one question.
"Were you lying then or are you lying now?".
That alone means that it could never be the basis for a settlement that has any credibility.
So, we need to think again and that will take a couple of years. Maybe Norway, Canada or something but a month extension won't cut it. The government know that, the EU know that. I think there's a fair chance that the EU will offer a two year extension but that time to is include the transition period as well. A transition to whatever deal is passed by parliament and agreed by the EU in any time less than two years. It means there won't be any faffing around to the last minute yet it allows space to think properly rather than panic, as is now the case.
In that time it may well become the case that another referendum is needed but the EU will not demand it. The EU's interests lie in the UK making decisions that have wide support, and that the decisions are made by the UK.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 16:03:42 GMT
You should be afraid of it. This mindset is the cause of the whole problem, people not seeing danger. It has disastrous consequences for households in the UK. People forget that Britain existed perfectly well without the EU before we were a member - we shall survive leaving it too. That may be the case if it was eternally 1975 and that nothing had changed in the intervening years.
It is not 1975, the world and our interconnectedness have changed in ways that would have been unimaginable then.
What no deal will do is put us back nearly fifty years, whilst the rest of the world motors on without us.
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5,707 posts
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 17:04:43 GMT
Post by lynette on Mar 15, 2019 17:04:43 GMT
So in 1975 a four bed Victorian semi with a decent sized garden, ten minutes' stroll from a tube, Finchley Central to be precise, cost £16,000. We can play this game for ever, I know but just to show how 'things' have changed.
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Post by samuelwhiskers on Mar 15, 2019 17:19:34 GMT
You should be afraid of it. This mindset is the cause of the whole problem, people not seeing danger. It has disastrous consequences for households in the UK. If it’s not a spider, I’m not afraid of it. My opinion is it’s mindsets like this that have got us where we are - the scare mongering that we shouldn’t leave, that we shouldn’t have no-deal, that we shouldn’t leave with the only deal on the table and the constant support for further referendums. People forget that Britain existed perfectly well without the EU before we were a member - we shall survive leaving it too. There is nothing to fear by leaving because we will get through whatever comes next - what choice do we have but to survive it? We are an island - we can weather a storm. If we get a deal then fine, but people shouldn’t complain about every single scenario and act like there’s a miaracle solution just around the corner that no one has seen yet. There isn’t one and an extension isn’t going to miraculously resolve that. I’m no Tory supporter but May is right in that no deal is better than a bad deal... and pretty much everyone thinks it’s a bad deal. So the path is clear. It's not fear-mongering. There is no question that No Deal will do serious long-term damage to our economy, and that we will at the very least suffer short-term food and medicine shortages, which will lead to deaths. People, and it's usually relatively privileged people, always act like saying "people will die" is fear-mongering, but look at statistics from how many people have died due to cuts in the benefits system already. No, we won't have bodies piling up and panic on the streets, but many highly vulnerable people will die. The world has changed hugely since we joined the EU, and so has our country. It's naive to say "well we were okay before!" All our trading deals were negotiated as an EU member state, and will therefore become invalid when we leave. It's not like we just automatically revert to pre-EU status. And we currently import more than 40% of all our food, which is a massive increase from a few decades ago. The UK does not produce enough food to feed everyone and because we're so heavily dependent on food and medicine imports (especially considering the UK operates on a "Just In Time" import policy), means even minor disruption to imports -- imports that depend on trade deals -- can and will cause serious problems. Any deal is better than no deal. And there are many other, better options, number one being a new referendum.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 17:19:52 GMT
People forget that Britain existed perfectly well without the EU before we were a member - we shall survive leaving it too. That may be the case if it was eternally 1975 and that nothing had changed in the intervening years.
It is not 1975, the world and our interconnectedness have changed in ways that would have been unimaginable then.
What no deal will do is put us back nearly fifty years, whilst the rest of the world motors on without us.
I'm not so sure we did exist "perfectly well" prior to our membership of the EU. Most of the major cities in the country had slum areas in the 60's and early 70's, do we still today? Granted the value of money has increased so therefore overall standards have with it, but still, you only need to look at the photos at the link below and compare it wherever it is you live now and you'd be able to quantify how far the country has come and how overall quality of life has increased as a result of its EU membership. www.shelterscotland.org/lifeworthliving/
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 17:36:19 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Mar 15, 2019 17:36:19 GMT
Be funny if we had European elections in June.
We won’t crash out without a deal, as there is no political will for this to happen.
Justin Tomlinson the Brexit supporting MP for Swindon North, should be down at the Honda Factory on his knees begging forgiveness.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 18:23:12 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 18:23:12 GMT
That may be the case if it was eternally 1975 and that nothing had changed in the intervening years.
It is not 1975, the world and our interconnectedness have changed in ways that would have been unimaginable then.
What no deal will do is put us back nearly fifty years, whilst the rest of the world motors on without us.
I'm not so sure we did exist "perfectly well" prior to our membership of the EU. Most of the major cities in the country had slum areas in the 60's and early 70's, do we still today? Granted the value of money has increased so therefore overall standards have with it, but still, you only need to look at the photos at the link below and compare it wherever it is you live now and you'd be able to quantify how far the country has come and how overall quality of life has increased as a result of its EU membership. www.shelterscotland.org/lifeworthliving/Those who forget that Britain was known, on the continent as well as here, as ‘The Sick Man of Europe’ by the late sixties need it tattooing on their eyelids to make sure they don’t forget. Devaluation of the pound, Three Day Week and, just after we had joined, the embarrassment of going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout. We were no longer coping well on our own and likely would struggle again. I remember it, just, and I wasn’t very old. A lot of those voting to leave should remember this full well, yet seem to have no memory of it.
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Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 18:33:07 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 18:33:07 GMT
Depends what you’re negotiating 🙈 No deal may not be preferred, but honestly, everyone acts like it’ll be the end of civilisation as we know it. I’m happy with no deal and would prefer to start sorting out the country from that stance, than working off a deal no one likes. We can make it work and shouldn’t be afraid of it. I don't want to our lives to be made worse than they need to be and I definitely don't need other people telling me that I should.
On May's deal, I agree that it should be binned but for one simple reason only and that is nothing to do with its own merits (we are past that). It has been destroyed and to try and pick it out of the bin, smooth it out and pretend that it was okay all along will not wash with anyone. Not remainers, not leavers.
All those politicians who have switched to the same deal as now being absolutely fine when they had previously trashed it need to answer one question.
"Were you lying then or are you lying now?".
That alone means that it could never be the basis for a settlement that has any credibility.
So, we need to think again and that will take a couple of years. Maybe Norway, Canada or something but a month extension won't cut it. The government know that, the EU know that. I think there's a fair chance that the EU will offer a two year extension but that time to is include the transition period as well. A transition to whatever deal is passed by parliament and agreed by the EU in any time less than two years. It means there won't be any faffing around to the last minute yet it allows space to think properly rather than panic, as is now the case.
In that time it may well become the case that another referendum is needed but the EU will not demand it. The EU's interests lie in the UK making decisions that have wide support, and that the decisions are made by the UK.
Time to think again? About what, exactly? We want to leave the EU and we have a date to leave. That was the public mandate. A few years to rethink does nothing - it simply delays the process. We have had years to think. We have a deal the government and EU agree on but parliament does not. Fine - it doesn’t have to approve it. But it comes back to the idea that people are holding out in the hope the EU will offer something better. They won’t - there is no other deal and our only bargaining tool was to tell them we would walk away and do it without them: which they won’t allow because that’s not in their interest. But no, we’ve told them we won’t do that. We backed down first and are now in the weaker position got it. We now go to them, cap in hand, asking for an extension in the hope they change their mind and thus give them all the power. There will be no second referendum. There won’t even be a change of PM as May cannot be challenged until December 2019 and I don’t see her going unless she wins the vote on her deal next week. I really hope one of the 27 countries refuses to grant the extension and forces us out so the we can just get on and deal with whatever mess we find ourselves in. Then we we vote every MP out and never give them a second thought again.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2019 18:38:56 GMT
Leave without a plan was never what was voted for. Look back and you will find no major figure promoting it. It is the option with the least support as per the referendum and the campaign.
If people are not being given what was promised then they must be shamed for it, for going around conning us that it actually was promised, in spite of all of us knowing that it’s a lie.
The big problem is being lied to by politicians. A no deal leave is a massive, two fingers up lie to the electorate who were promised much better. Government incompetence being gussied up as a positive thing. Told by liars, believed by hypocrites.
Anyone promoting a no deal Brexit is dangerous and must be stopped (something I said in this very thread way back).
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