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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 7:51:29 GMT
70% fewer severe cases is still considerably greater numbers of severe cases, in view of the greater number of cases overall due to how much more transmissible it is. A much greater number of cases if we all "crack on without restrictions." Well that's in a non vaxxed area. With triple boosters, the 70% less severity will be even more pronounced. Its nor a straight mathematical calculation Sorry, what you're saying here makes absolutely no sense. This cannot be determined from the research paper you initially posted. Aside from this, a population level study like this is difficult to transpose directly into a much older uk population. Please don't make statements like this, which are categorically untrue. We all have a responsibility to ensure we aren't creating or spreading misinformation
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 22, 2021 7:48:11 GMT
Can you show me the source here. This just looks and sounds like a poorly written speculative article. It's so important to limit the spread of misinformation here
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 20:42:56 GMT
There you go. 70% less severe means we should all crack on without restrictions This is good news. What this doesn't tell us though is how much of this is down to population immunity. We should also be cautious in comparing population analysis with South Africa, where the median age is 28 years, compared with the UK at 41 years All in all, this is promising but in no means should be taken as a 1:1 comparison with how things will/are playing out in the UK
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 14:37:51 GMT
Imperial College London research, published 3 days ago, which has been somewhat largely ignored shows that "the omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses". In fact, the research found that with 2 vaccines, you're only protected by between 0%-20%... and even with the booster, you're more at 55%, rather than the 80% we are being told.
Urgh, it feels like every time I get vaccinated & think I can worry less, along comes something to show that the vaccines are less effective than previously announced so I can't worry less.
Hoping to put your mind at rest a little here: It's really important that we differentiate between effectiveness against 'severe disease' and 'symptomatic infection' here The 55% figure in Anthony's post above is the booster's effectiveness against symptomatic disease. You'd expect this to be lower than the effectiveness against severe disease which is around 80%
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 21, 2021 14:32:15 GMT
You do realise it's not about death rate, it's the ability of hospitals to cope with the number of additional patients, whilst being able to operate other essential treatments. This has absolutely nothing to do with being anti-tory
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 20:52:22 GMT
Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side. That is not exactly encouraging to read! I think at the moment my arm is less painful than it was for my first jab, though worse than the second. I'm hoping that now I've had one Pfizer if I have to have more boosters in the future that the side effects won't be as bad, in the same way my 2nd AstraZeneca wasn't nearly as bad as the first. ETA: Damn, I've just remembered that people who started with Pfizer seemed to get worse side effects from the 2nd jab than the 1st, so that doesn't bode well! This was usually if they'd had no prior infection. Those that had been infected prior to their first Pfizer jab often experienced worse/similar symptoms on their first as opposed to their second jab. Source: covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-pfizer-effectsI don't think it would be unreasonable to suggest that a prior dose of any vaccine would yield similar results to this
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 18:45:42 GMT
I think it's far too early to say that cases are stabilising here. No it isn't. Cases are not a good enough guide now, not with a variant that is more viral but less life-threatening.
Hospitalisations are the guide, and in particular unavoidable hospitalisations rather than 'we have Covid bed capacity we should use it'.
No, hospitalisations are absolutely not the guide as to whether cases are stabilising here due to the lag in between infections and hospitalisation As of yet there is little evidence to support that this variant causes less severe disease. If you can present evidence to counter this, please do as I'm interested to read it
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2021 18:03:14 GMT
He's buying himself a week becasue there is a chance the hospital and death data won't deteriorate very much, even though infection rates have increased. There is also the issue central to Tory thinking of the tail wagging the dog - the unvaxed small minority (but 90% of deaths) determining Gov policy.
Fwiw, 920K vaccinated yesterday.
You might have something there. Cases very much appear to be stabilising rather than increasing exponentially. The number of patients in hospital with covid has been between 7-8000 for the past month of data, again no exponential rises. Average deaths per day has barely changed in a month. I think it's far too early to say that cases are stabilising here. The graph here, looking at cases by specimen date shows the latest 'complete' day as the highest so far, with the later bars indicating that labs appear to be a few days behind in terms of processing. There is also extreme pressure on testing in London. I have been unable to get hold of LFT tests for days and people are queing for hours to access PCR testing sites It's also important to remember that the England data excludes re-infection and we know from Denmark that we have seen a 200% increase in re-infections, so these figures are lower than they should be. Here's the ZOE covid data in comparison, which although uses a lot of modelling has actually been pretty reliable throughout the pandemic
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:49:57 GMT
I was referencing disease severity here as opposed to infectivity apologies Apology accepted. Would you like me to disprove the second part of your claim now ? I'm more than happy to be proved wrong on the severity side, in fact I'd love to be given the way things are going. What's super important to remember in all this though is that you have to look at this through the lens of previously unifected individuals, infected with a new variant and compare this to a similar sample being infected with the original variant . Decreased hospitalisation/mortality rates in a population with some level of immunity, be that through prior infection or vaccination, isn't indicative of decreased variant severity, it's indicative of increased levels of immune response. At present, from the research I've looked at, this appears to a key driver in what we're observing in South Africa. If you do have research that indicates something else though, I'd really love to have a read as it's all pretty interesting
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:38:17 GMT
Feel free to take a look at my other posts in this thread over the past few days which should confirm this. It was a simple wording error, my apologies
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 21:02:46 GMT
there's no evidence supporting any of this at present Surprise, surprise# ] Yes there is - Omricon up to 70 times more infecteous- I was referencing disease severity here as opposed to infectivity apologies
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 20:01:05 GMT
The key word in this is 'may' there is far more at play with severe covid than just infectivity of lung tissue. The report goes onto mention this. Effectively what this report does confirm is that the virus replicated faster, they've then gone on to suggest a further hypothesis with regards to severity that is not proven in this paper
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 19, 2021 18:36:28 GMT
Apparently the new version is more contagious (but much milder) and we are all going to get it. there's no evidence supporting any reduction in severity at present
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 18, 2021 20:59:53 GMT
it will be interesting to see if I get pinged by the NHS Covid-19 app. I'd be super surprised if performers bring their phones onto stage with them, so I should imagine you won't be pinged
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Post by Dan213 on Nov 17, 2021 10:36:14 GMT
I agree, it’s like Primark being mentioned in Lion King or Aladdin, it makes no sense I completely missed this when I saw it. What was the joke? This wasn't in last Thursdays performance. The Nabalungi mispronunciations change all the time
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 30, 2020 23:59:28 GMT
I forgot to add, we also use Google Classroom which is the G-Suite equivalent of Teams. It’s a lot more stripped back and has less features. The school has an Office 365 subscription as well but for some reason we were told to use Google. Google Meet is also much more basic than Teams video, eg you can’t have multiple meetings as Classroom doesn’t have different channels/breakout rooms, so therefore small group work is out of the question. I'm sure you can do this. The company I work for uses G-Suite primarily and all internal meetings use hangouts. I would have thought its just a case of sending a hangout link to the group you are working with and theyll all be able to access that
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Post by Dan213 on Dec 20, 2020 13:58:04 GMT
I think the government is grossly incompetent and has been throughout this whole mess but I'm not convinced they are lying about this new strain spreading faster. They may or may not be over-reacting to this new strain, but they're not lying as scientists have been tracking this: "The variant described today in the House of Commons contains a novel set of mutations associated with a lineage spreading rapidly in the South East of England (and more widely) that is the subject of ongoing investigations by the UK Public Health Agencies, coordinated by Public Health England and supported by COG-UK." I suspect that the government is doing much as one might if they saw someone venturing into what appears to be a mine field... get the person to stop moving until the danger can be assessed properly. I don't think there's any denying that the new strain exists but the government have jumped on this as the reason for the change in restrictions. They have portrayed it as 'new information' in order to make it appear less of a u turn when this was identified weeks ago. In reality new strain or not, they ignored the science until it was too late.
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Post by Dan213 on Oct 31, 2020 22:44:04 GMT
This won’t be happening now will it? They were due to open on the 30th so not on that day, but maybe sometime in December if they do online rehearsals and we are able to open things up then? There wouldn't be any need to rehearse online. If you are unable to work from home, you are able to go to work if your workplace is Covid secure. Obviously new legislation will mean a delayed opening but it shouldn't impact rehearsals
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Post by Dan213 on Mar 24, 2019 10:45:44 GMT
It isn’t a live recording as far as I’m aware The bit that always makes me think it must be a live recording to some degree is on the opening track And you don't even know it at exactly 2.50 after the line "it's a tiny little thing", the music stops and there is the definite sound of audience reaction, not the company, audience. Its weird there is no applause or reaction after every song though so i suppose this could have just been added in so there isn't dead silence after that line. Strange. So the backing track for And You Dont Even Know it is the same as the one used on the concept albums (the show orchestration is a little different) so I think it’s been added to get rid of the silence. It’s a bit of an odd choice really
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Post by Dan213 on Mar 22, 2019 19:02:11 GMT
Nope. It’s a bit weird in places and I never really got the whole extended version of Out of The Darkness at the end. It was produced very early on in the run and I’m guessing that also meant a low budget too Is that nope it wasn't recorded live, or nope you're not sure? I love the extended Out Of The Darkness. I wish it was slightly faster with a bigger beat, like a real dance track. Make a proper finale.
It isn’t a live recording as far as I’m aware
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Post by Dan213 on Mar 21, 2019 22:52:56 GMT
A question about the London cast recording. Was it recorded live? It seems like there are 2 bits where you hear an audience reaction, usually in the middle of songs, but there is no clapping or anything else from the audience. Any ideas? Nope. It’s a bit weird in places and I never really got the whole extended version of Out of The Darkness at the end. It was produced very early on in the run and I’m guessing that also meant a low budget too
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Post by Dan213 on Feb 24, 2019 17:25:05 GMT
This video reminds me. Does anyone know why they all exit the stage and re-enter again so many times in the Blood Brothers curtain call. Always thought it was a little odd
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Post by Dan213 on Feb 20, 2019 23:07:40 GMT
Saw this this afternoon and thought it was brilliant. A great piece of theatre. Love how the band are involved on stage at times
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Post by Dan213 on Feb 18, 2019 23:01:49 GMT
New trailer:
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Post by Dan213 on Nov 18, 2018 10:19:06 GMT
I hate to break it to you but you’re all wrong. It’s frustrating because you’re all being blinded by the bright lights and theatrical smoke. I don’t need to prove it to any of you, I was just trying to educate. Don’t say I didn’t tell you so when the truth finally comes out. Looks like you know absolutely nothing about live theatre. All of the ensemble wear concealed hairline mics and sing live. They’re quite easy to see if you look hard enough. Think you need to do a little bit of research before coming back again XD
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