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Post by BurlyBeaR on Oct 20, 2022 18:07:41 GMT
Of course we will have a poll when we have a shortlist but who do you think will be throwing their hat into the ring?
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Post by NeilVHughes on Oct 20, 2022 18:15:25 GMT
I believe I am pencilled in for a Wed afternoon in December.
Anyone but Johnson, likely to be either Sunak or Mordaunt.
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Oct 20, 2022 18:27:46 GMT
Do you think Sue Ellen would have the nerve to apply?
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Post by alece10 on Oct 20, 2022 18:45:20 GMT
Why would anyone in their right mind put themselves forward?
Oh I know why!
Practically guaranteed knighthood
Guaranteed lifetime salary/pension
Big earnings from the speech circuit.
Directorships of big companies which pay very well.
So maybe worth doing the job for a few months to secure your future financially.
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Post by crowblack on Oct 20, 2022 19:44:10 GMT
Do you think Sue Ellen would have the nerve to apply? Or will Boris Ewing step out of the shower? |
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Post by karloscar on Oct 20, 2022 21:56:53 GMT
The fact that they're seriously considering Johnson as a possible candidate is frankly ridiculous. It's like trying to reuse a condom. It's already unraveled,is fundamentally damaged due to friction, no matter how much you wash it it's unsanitary and riddled with bacteria, and feels disgusting when you try it on.
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Post by olliebean on Oct 20, 2022 22:48:46 GMT
I could see it happening, perhaps, some way down the road, when enough time has passed for enough people to have let his faults and transgressions slip from their working memory, and I believe this was his plan; but Truss turned out to be rather more immediately and indefensibly useless than he had hoped for, and I can't see him getting back onto the ballot so soon. Especially with the Privileges Committee investigation still ongoing.
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Post by Jon on Oct 20, 2022 23:19:44 GMT
Boris will end up being like Kevin Rudd if he's reelected, Rudd became PM again after ousting Julia Gillard but was defeated months later in an election.
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Post by oxfordsimon on Oct 20, 2022 23:43:38 GMT
The issue isn't who can win the next election for the Tories. That just isn't going to happen.
The new PM has to save the party from oblivion and make sure they have at least 200 MPs after the General Election.
That is the best they can hope for now.
If Labour can survive Corbyn, the Tories can survive Truss. But it won't be easy.
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Post by Jon on Oct 20, 2022 23:50:06 GMT
They're heading for a massacre whenever the next election is but TBH it's not that surprising, we saw it happen in 1997 and in other countries such as Australia the equivalent to the Tories have seen masses losses, people tend to get tired of the ruling party after over a decade.
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 21, 2022 7:54:06 GMT
Do you think Sue Ellen would have the nerve to apply? Or will Boris Ewing step out of the shower? He he Ooh that is very good, needed repeating. So I did it |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 21, 2022 7:56:52 GMT
The issue isn't who can win the next election for the Tories. That just isn't going to happen. The new PM has to save the party from oblivion and make sure they have at least 200 MPs after the General Election. That is the best they can hope for now. If Labour can survive Corbyn, the Tories can survive Truss. But it won't be easy. I can't imagine being that invested in a political party, especially one that has done as much damage to the country over ten plus years and the last five prime ministers |
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Post by crowblack on Oct 21, 2022 9:07:33 GMT
Labour need a clear message though. We don't know what they stand for other than 'not Tories'. Their representative couldn't answer the question on a manifesto this morning - why aren't they ready with this? They should have been prepping for this moment for years (it's not like they've had much else to do other than infighting).
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 21, 2022 9:14:50 GMT
The only doubt about Johnson winning now and at the next election is whether it is too soon; another 6-months, even 3-months, would presumably have sufficed as due penance. But the Tories are shameless/hugely practical and so ..
The most important thing about Johnson is he understands the new alignments of UK politics, which we see that in his election results - an 80-seat majority, 60-seat overall. Everyone else remains in their Blair/Thatcher/status quo straight jackets.
The Red Wall was won on an economically liberal / culturally conservative platform, and Starmer cannot compete (matched on economics, stymied on culture/immigration). Someone might try to out-Johnson Johnson, and they might yet see him off, though once he starts with that contrition and bluster all bets are off.
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Post by Jan on Oct 21, 2022 9:17:19 GMT
If he actually stands Boris should fairly easily get 100+ MP nominations. In that case he beats any of them if it goes to the members. So, I predict Boris.
I say this partly because I see the names of the MPs nominating each candidate will be kept secret, so for example ministers who resigned from his government can still nominate him this time with no public charge of hypocrisy.
If it goes to the members without Boris the non-Sunak alternative will win.
Sunak's only path to victory is for him to get the most nominations, for Boris to get < 100, and for him to do a deal with the second-placed person where they withdraw even if they too have > 100.
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Post by oxfordsimon on Oct 21, 2022 9:21:46 GMT
Then Boris gets removed from the House as a result of the committee investigation and we are back to square one.
He is too tainted to be PM
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 21, 2022 9:23:50 GMT
Labour need a clear message though. We don't know what they stand for other than 'not Tories'. Their representative couldn't answer the question on a manifesto this morning - why aren't they ready with this? They should have been prepping for this moment for years (it's not like they've had much else to do other than infighting). But they are being Tories. Is there any difference between Cameron's policies and those proposed so far by Starmer, albeit he hasn't mentioned too many policies yet? A sheet of paper between them politically |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 21, 2022 9:26:46 GMT
Then Boris gets removed from the House as a result of the committee investigation and we are back to square one. He is too tainted to be PM Plus the Tory MP's who will revolt or resign if he returns. It's a big mess |
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Post by Jan on Oct 21, 2022 9:33:09 GMT
Labour need a clear message though. We don't know what they stand for other than 'not Tories'. Their representative couldn't answer the question on a manifesto this morning - why aren't they ready with this? They should have been prepping for this moment for years (it's not like they've had much else to do other than infighting). But they are being Tories. Is there any difference between Cameron's policies and those proposed so far by Starmer, albeit he hasn't mentioned too many policies yet? A sheet of paper between them politically Starmer is very boxed in on policies now that he's shown he approves of "the markets" setting economic policy. The same "markets" that didn't like unfunded tax cuts and massive unfunded spending (via the energy price cap) also won't like any extra spending by Starmer on whatever policies he wants, and of course "the markets" are predisposed to dislike Labour administrations anyway so he will immediately be facing a drop in sterling and interest rate rises. So far all he's got to counter this are windfall taxes but that's just a one-off that doesn't address the year on year deficit. Also his promised repeal of strike legislation is very likely to rebound unless he also commits to increasing all public sector wages in line with (high) inflation which "the markets" will hate - public sector and other strikes have been a feature of all the past Labour administrations I can remember. Interesting that Truss is being condemned for libertarian economics when in fact what did for her was the staggering unfunded cost of the energy price cap (up to £200bn) which is the closest thing to Corbyn's "People's QE" that's ever been tried. |
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Post by crowblack on Oct 21, 2022 9:56:29 GMT
Then Boris gets removed from the House as a result of the committee investigation and we are back to square one. He is too tainted to be PM Johnson being personally a bit dodgy and immoral was always factored in, though. I think the public will put up with Westminster Village stuff now they've experienced the genuine, hitting you in the pocket at home storms caused by the likes of Truss. Throwing away the Red Wall was an astonishing thing to do, and with Johnson the Tories could still claw it back (I say this as a Left-wing, on and off Labour Party member). |
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Post by og on Oct 21, 2022 10:19:26 GMT
As much as it pains and disgusts me to so say it, I'd put money on Johnson returning. And It'll be a dire as Meg Giry's return in Love Never Dies.
He will gloat and bask like a pig in mud, whilst evading all the issues and fracturing society even further.
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 21, 2022 11:10:38 GMT
Interesting that Truss is being condemned for libertarian economics when in fact what did for her was the staggering unfunded cost of the energy price cap (up to £200bn) which is the closest thing to Corbyn's "People's QE" that's ever been tried.
Keynesians to the Left, Keynesians to the Right, and here we are stuck in the middle with zero growth*
* excluding berserker property values for 12 years, and £trillions of QE to maintain shareholder value
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Post by vdcni on Oct 21, 2022 11:22:03 GMT
The markets knew the energy cap was coming and that absolutely wasn't the issue it was the massive unfunded tax cuts funded by more borrowing with no apparent plan to pay for it and cutting out the OBR which spooked them and led to the current disasters.
I think people have forgotten why Johnson went. His poll numbers were already behind Labour and had a string of terrible by-election losses. They wouldn't have moved against him no matter what scandals had engulfed him if they thought he was that much of an electoral asset.
Bringing Boris back isn't going to shift those polls that much. Plus his hearing over misleading the House of Commons is still to come, that could easily suspended from Parliament.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2022 12:44:50 GMT
Wait. This is the PM queue? Apologies. I thought it was for Tammy Faye Returns. Apologies.
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Post by Jan on Oct 21, 2022 13:17:00 GMT
The markets knew the energy cap was coming and that absolutely wasn't the issue it was the massive unfunded tax cuts funded by more borrowing with no apparent plan to pay for it and cutting out the OBR which spooked them and led to the current disasters. I think people have forgotten why Johnson went. His poll numbers were already behind Labour and had a string of terrible by-election losses. They wouldn't have moved against him no matter what scandals had engulfed him if they thought he was that much of an electoral asset. Bringing Boris back isn't going to shift those polls that much. Plus his hearing over misleading the House of Commons is still to come, that could easily suspended from Parliament. The tax cuts were also all known before too, plus the decision not to increase corporation tax, all except the 45% upper rate reduction which had a cost of £2bn, a hundred times less than the energy package potentially. The Truss energy package was the single biggest welfare programme in the history of the country and Tory MPs boasted it was 2-3 times more generous than any other country had implemented (it was). It was open-ended and had no maximum cost. All the tax cuts put together were trivial compared to it so the tax cuts themselves absolutely weren’t the problem. The lack of an OBR assessment and a failure to announce spending cuts at the same time were problems. The Hunt energy package is now the same as Starmer’s. It is still creating a massive hole in the finances (around £60bn) and neither of them will tell us how that gap will be plugged. |
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