Which musical will be the next one to close?

I'd say based on how easy it is to ticket tickets, and at a discount I'd say Back to the Future possibly in the first half of 2023.

I would say we'll soon be looking at Back To The Future, Pretty Woman (although I know that is definitely off early 2023) and Jersey Boys as the next three to go.

All 6 of the above by end of next year I’d say for sure.
I believe Only Fools is due to close at the end of current booking period if murmers are to be believed.

I'm honestly impressed OFAH is still running. 

I loved this stage show just as much as I love the series - people are very attached to OFAH and it has done outstandingly well. No doubt when it closes it'll go on tour and do equally well.

I’m amazed that & Juliet haven’t announced closure yet. When I saw it again in May it was still in great shape but the Saturday evening show was empty, and was like that most Saturdays that month. That was with Keala. The one show that consistently surprises me as a long runner is Book of Mormon.

Yes, but they’re not ‘that’ discounted are they? The show clearly has a pretty manageable break-even and if they are continuing to run at it they’ll be fine. The Shaftesbury is one of the only ‘independently’ owned W/E theatres so doesn’t run in quite the same way as others, and is happy to have a long running moderate success rather than the run of ‘three monthers’ that it used to be known for.

I believe they are recasting & J so that does not suggest an imminent closure~~~

Tell it to the Cinderella cast...

I don't actually think they're closing &J just yet and I hope it has longer yet, but I am constantly amazed at how poorly sold it is.

Yes I think the cost of living is a far bigger thing. Its not just theatres, I know quite a few leisure venues that have noticed a drop, especially families.

I think the majority are now comfortable with living with covid so it factors far less than the cost of things. Plus the striking makes it harder to plan as you may not actually be able to get to London.

Regarding the recent announcements of Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away, does anyone know if it was the producers that decided to end the run, or was it the theatres that gave them notice to leave? (Mary Poppins was always intended as a limited run, apparently, and Cameron probably already had other intentions for the show and the theatre).

I only ask as most shows are struggling to sell out at the moment, so if it was the theatre owner's decision, were sales so bad that they are confident that a new show will provide them greater audience numbers?

*EDIT* I'm probably answering my own question here, but I've just remembered that both Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away are also closing on Broadway, which suggests that the producers have decided to close. But still interested to hear if anyone knows differently.