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Post by toomasj on Nov 22, 2023 10:39:40 GMT
I think it will do phenomenal business and will likely sell out or go very close. It has over six months to sell a huge advance before opening, with Olivier wins to add to the marketing later, in a smallish house on a limited run. And having come off a hugely successful sell out run at the Donmar. So yeah, all the evidence suggests this will be a smash. I always think of Oklahoma though, which is infinitely more well known, and died on its ass for basically its entire West End transfer. Very similar situation - good reviews, strong cast, sold out a small theatre. Lost basically its entire investment and limped through a West End run at the same theatre. Nothings a given. Good point - but I think the Oklahoma run was overly ambitious. In my opinion, the brand recognition actively worked against them. I saw it at the YV and was disappointed, many of the comments around me being that essentially elements of the audience for this type of show want a more traditional “comfy” telling of the story. Not that there’s anything wrong with trying new things; but people who traditionally see shows like Oklahoma, TSoM and their ilk want things done a certain way. Where I think the difference lies is that Next to Normal is targeting a completely different demographic. It will never be a money draw like Hamilton or Wicked, with family night out appeal, but it will lock into a certain demographic as it did at the Donmar and do well off that alone. Time will tell, of course, but I think it will do superbly well for the length lf the run it has booked and the positive word of mouth it received already. Not every production needs to run for years, I think it will do a very strong limited run and then pop off to Broadway. |
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Post by apubleed on Nov 22, 2023 10:46:31 GMT
Exactly. I have more confidence in the N2N transfer because of easier marketing & the word of mouth for the show I suspect will be stronger than Oklahoma (as much as I love Oklahoma). Next to normal is truly a show that appeals to wide demographic and I think everyone can find a way in some way to relate to the show. But yes let's not pretend it's going to be an instant sell-out. I think they will do fine but I suspect we won't have to worry about availability or discounted options throughout the entire course of the run.
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Post by punxsutawney on Nov 22, 2023 10:46:58 GMT
I think it will do phenomenal business and will likely sell out or go very close. It has over six months to sell a huge advance before opening, with Olivier wins to add to the marketing later, in a smallish house on a limited run. And having come off a hugely successful sell out run at the Donmar. So yeah, all the evidence suggests this will be a smash. I always think of Oklahoma though, which is infinitely more well known, and died on its ass for basically its entire West End transfer. Very similar situation - good reviews, strong cast, sold out a small theatre. Lost basically its entire investment and limped through a West End run at the same theatre. Nothings a given. Similar how you describe it, but misses the key difference in that YV Oklahoma! was a massively divisive reinterpretation which alienated a large chunk of the more casual audiences who went to see it. |
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Post by curiouskc on Nov 23, 2023 18:04:09 GMT
Caissie Levy is going to be performing a homecoming concert in NYC on December 13th and she's bringing Jack Wolfe over to guest star in it (predictably it's already sold out). Hope this continued mother/son bond means we'll see both of them return for the N2N transfer.  |
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Post by bobbievanhusen on Nov 24, 2023 1:47:49 GMT
I think it will do phenomenal business and will likely sell out or go very close. It has over six months to sell a huge advance before opening, with Olivier wins to add to the marketing later, in a smallish house on a limited run. And having come off a hugely successful sell out run at the Donmar. So yeah, all the evidence suggests this will be a smash. What are you selling the show on to get a huge advance before opening? Having a successful run at the Donmar doesn't mean anything to most people.
The Oliviers aren't until April and the show opens in June, if it wins anything.
I don't see any evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.
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Post by bobbievanhusen on Nov 24, 2023 2:04:34 GMT
but people who traditionally see shows like Oklahoma, TSoM and their ilk want things done a certain way. Like those folk who want their Sunset Boulevards with a Mansion, turbans and kaftans! Where I think the difference lies is that Next to Normal is targeting a completely different demographic. It will never be a money draw like Hamilton or Wicked, with family night out appeal, but it will lock into a certain demographic as it did at the Donmar and do well off that alone. I completely agree that it will appeal to a different demographic, but I suspect its a younger demographic who don't necessarily book far in advance and won't want to pay full price to see it. the Donamr also has a built in membership to fill their productions in the 250 seat space, which doesnt always carry over to the transfers. I do hope it's a success and i'll certainly be going to see it again when it opens. I wonder if Jamie Parker will go with it. I do hope so. I can't iagine how draining it is to have to have a convincing breakdown every night. |
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Post by toomasj on Nov 24, 2023 4:56:12 GMT
This is going to do fantastically well. Can’t wait to see it again. As everyone above says, this is going to do great business. Can’t wait!!!
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Post by BVM on Nov 24, 2023 6:19:17 GMT
It is incredibly unlikely this will have a massive advance, as bobbievanhusen says. Firstly because almost nothing does; I mean you need to be a Moulin Rouge or similar to have one of those. And secondly because ultimately it is a niche piece. The changes in ticket buying habits combined with the demographic of the show means the advance is likely to be small. People said the Donmar was gonna sell our instantly and yet in reality it was possible to get tickets for months. |
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Post by BVM on Nov 24, 2023 6:22:01 GMT
I think it will do phenomenal business and will likely sell out or go very close. It has over six months to sell a huge advance before opening, with Olivier wins to add to the marketing later, in a smallish house on a limited run. And having come off a hugely successful sell out run at the Donmar. So yeah, all the evidence suggests this will be a smash. What are you selling the show on to get a huge advance before opening? Having a successful run at the Donmar doesn't mean anything to most people.
The Oliviers aren't until April and the show opens in June, if it wins anything.
I don't see any evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.
Could't agree more. Plus Sunset Boulevard is gonna win everything! |
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Post by punxsutawney on Nov 24, 2023 10:53:21 GMT
I think it will do phenomenal business and will likely sell out or go very close. It has over six months to sell a huge advance before opening, with Olivier wins to add to the marketing later, in a smallish house on a limited run. And having come off a hugely successful sell out run at the Donmar. So yeah, all the evidence suggests this will be a smash. What are you selling the show on to get a huge advance before opening? Having a successful run at the Donmar doesn't mean anything to most people.
The Oliviers aren't until April and the show opens in June, if it wins anything.
I don't see any evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.
The same thing that saw it sell out the entire Donmar run weeks before even first preview, probably. |
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Post by Being Alive on Nov 24, 2023 11:38:35 GMT
I think N2N has two realistic shots at Oliviers now - Jack and Elle, the rest are nominations they won't win.
It's doing double the length of time, in a theatre more than 3 times the size of the one it was in.
You could get tickets to this sold out run at the Donmar for just about every performance (everyone I know who didn't book before the sell out managed to get in somehow).
I hope you're right and it's a sell out and does hugely well, but I can't personally see evidence that points to the fact it's a sure fire smash.
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Post by curiouskc on Nov 24, 2023 12:30:34 GMT
I think N2N has two realistic shots at Oliviers now - Jack and Elle, the rest are nominations they won't win. Are we really counting out Caissie for a potential win then? |
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Post by Being Alive on Nov 24, 2023 12:42:03 GMT
I think N2N has two realistic shots at Oliviers now - Jack and Elle, the rest are nominations they won't win. Are we really counting out Caissie for a potential win then? I think I am unfortunately - as much as I would love her to win, Scherzinger has more press behind her, and ATG is a much bigger machine than the Donmar |
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Post by andrew on Nov 24, 2023 13:00:08 GMT
Caissie would never win an Olivier for this, Scherzinger or not, her singing was sublime but her acting was not award winning. I'd love to see Jack, James and Elle get nominations but I wouldn't hold on to any wins when they most likely have Thaxton, Francis and Hodgett Young in the same categories.
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Post by budd on Nov 24, 2023 13:12:56 GMT
I thought Stemp was getting that actor gold, commercial disappointment notwithstanding
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Post by mrbarnaby on Nov 24, 2023 13:29:48 GMT
What are you selling the show on to get a huge advance before opening? Having a successful run at the Donmar doesn't mean anything to most people.
The Oliviers aren't until April and the show opens in June, if it wins anything.
I don't see any evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.
The same thing that saw it sell out the entire Donmar run weeks before even first preview, probably. You do know the Donmar is way smaller in capacity than Wyndhams right? And those most eager to see it- have done so already |
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Post by punxsutawney on Nov 24, 2023 13:57:18 GMT
The same thing that saw it sell out the entire Donmar run weeks before even first preview, probably. You do know the Donmar is way smaller in capacity than Wyndhams right? And those most eager to see it- have done so already I'm not saying it's going to sell out the run. A significant number of those will make return visits, a significant amount will have missed out on the initial run either due to not getting tickets or not hearing about it in time. I just think it's rather silly to say there's no evidence it will sell well for a very limited run over the summer. We've seen many things come into the West End destined to struggle to sell tickets for a full run, this is not one! |
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Post by Jon on Nov 24, 2023 14:45:04 GMT
People are putting high expectations on the transfer expecting it to sell out before it opens which I don't think is realistic given the Wyndham's is triple the capacity of the Donmar.
It's good this has got a transfer but we need to keep expectations in check in terms of success.
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Post by bobbievanhusen on Nov 24, 2023 14:49:48 GMT
What are you selling the show on to get a huge advance before opening? Having a successful run at the Donmar doesn't mean anything to most people.
The Oliviers aren't until April and the show opens in June, if it wins anything.
I don't see any evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.
The same thing that saw it sell out the entire Donmar run weeks before even first preview, probably. The show had been on sale for a year by then. All the anticipation of this coming to the UK and it only sold out a 250 seat venue weeks before its first preview, and that includes all the Donmar members/friends/donors etc, Who aren't as likely to see it again at the Wyndhams. Tickets were not hard to get once it opened, either. The prices are likely to be higher than the Donmar and will all these returning customers want to see it again at full price? Unlikely. |
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Post by mrbarnaby on Nov 24, 2023 15:02:44 GMT
I suspect this will do decent business. It certainly deserves to.
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Post by punxsutawney on Nov 24, 2023 15:32:09 GMT
I think the idea that tickets were "not hard to get" during the show's run is a bit of a theatre fan fallacy. They weren't hard to get if you're the sort of person who goes to shows with great regularity and who is on a website like this. But a more casual theatre fan will see that it is sold out and not seek out any further.
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Post by apubleed on Nov 24, 2023 19:50:30 GMT
I think the idea that tickets were "not hard to get" during the show's run is a bit of a theatre fan fallacy. They weren't hard to get if you're the sort of person who goes to shows with great regularity and who is on a website like this. But a more casual theatre fan will see that it is sold out and not seek out any further. Exactly. I know many people that I recommended the show to who simply couldn't go because it was 'sold out'. People that are not obsessed with theatre like us do not refresh pages every day or line up at the box office to metaphorically 'beg, borrow, steal' a ticket. That's just what we do lol. Next to normal in the west end should have a little bit of a nice start simply from people who didn't get to see the show. Then hopefully word of mouth, reviews etc. carry it to success for the whole run. |
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Post by Oobi on Nov 24, 2023 23:28:52 GMT
All the anticipation of this coming to the UK and it only sold out a 250 seat venue weeks before its first preview, and that includes all the Donmar members/friends/donors etc, Who aren't as likely to see it again at the Wyndhams. It's a stretch to act like the potential audience for this show has been "used up". Not everyone keeps up-to-date with the works of tiny off-West End venues; most casual theatregoers probably weren't even aware of the Donmar Warehouse production's existence. Don't underestimate the power of a central London location and an ad campaign. Obviously nobody knows for sure, but Next to Normal ran on Broadway for two years (in an 800-seat venue). I'm optimistic. |
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Post by Jon on Nov 24, 2023 23:30:42 GMT
All the anticipation of this coming to the UK and it only sold out a 250 seat venue weeks before its first preview, and that includes all the Donmar members/friends/donors etc, Who aren't as likely to see it again at the Wyndhams. It's a stretch to act like the potential audience for this show has been "used up". Not everyone keeps up-to-date with the works of tiny off-West End venues; most casual theatregoers probably weren't even aware of the Donmar Warehouse production's existence. Don't underestimate the power of a central London location and an ad campaign. Obviously nobody knows for sure, but Next to Normal ran on Broadway for two years (in an 800-seat venue). I'm optimistic. I'd be very impressed if Next to Normal became a long runner but to me it's extremely unlikely. |
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Post by Oobi on Nov 24, 2023 23:32:11 GMT
I'd be very impressed if Next to Normal became a long runner but to me it's extremely unlikely. Oh, of course! I just brought up the length of the Broadway run to make the point that 14 weeks on the West End is hardly unrealistic. |
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