19,780 posts
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Jun 20, 2017 21:00:29 GMT
Is there a musical that you think has the legs to run a good few years?
I know we're not going to get another Phantom or Les Mis (or are we?) but is there a show that could go on and on in the WE and maybe sustain a tour too?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 21:33:24 GMT
Thank god. I thought you were going to announce a Bruce Sprinstein jukebox musical!
I dont think we'll ever see runs like Les Miz and Phantom ever again. They are big splashy spectacles and now classics.
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2,051 posts
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Post by infofreako on Jun 20, 2017 21:35:03 GMT
Thank god. I thought you were going to announce a Bruce Sprinstein jukebox musical! I dont think we'll ever see runs like Les Miz and Phantom ever again. They are big splashy spectacles and now classics. There is a musical based on born to run in the pipeline |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 22:05:31 GMT
I hope Matilda will run at least as long as Billy Elliot did, if not longer. I'm sure it has the legs for it!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 23:15:53 GMT
I suspect Wicked has a good few years left in it yet, and Matilda still seems to be selling well.
It'll be interesting to see if Hamilton becomes the same phenomenon here as it did on Broadway...
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7,183 posts
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Post by Jon on Jun 21, 2017 0:11:53 GMT
Mamma Mia! seems to be going strong as is The Lion King.
Mormon I reckon will either close or move theatres but I suspect it's still got a few more years in it
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Post by cheesy116 on Jun 21, 2017 0:33:08 GMT
Definitely Matilda, very obvious ones are Wicked and Hamilton
Kinky boots is touring from late 2018/early 2019 but I don't imagine it will stay in London while this happens
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2017 0:33:48 GMT
I'd say now Wicked has ran for 10 years and had tours, it can be counted amongst the ones with serious legs.
I think Matilda will start to falter once we get another family musical of the same standard.
The Lion King is such a known and loved property that I don't see it ever not attracting people.
I would say Mamma Mia could be the next long runner to close but with the film coming, it will probably attract a lot of business again.
Mormon is still doing very well and I think by the time it closes will have had a very respectable run, although I do wonder if sales will start to subside when Hamilton opens and it's no longer the must-see show in town.
If Hamilton has cast well and opens to rave reviews (the writing and direction is certainly worth raves so it's upto the cast now) and therefore starts off with massive buzz and hype then I think it will run for a long, long time. The sales so far have been remarkable for something that isn't based on anything most know or love well.
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2,778 posts
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Post by daniel on Jun 21, 2017 8:30:48 GMT
The Lyceum has the capacity of the Queens and Her Majesty's combined, and is still virtually selling out eight shows a week, so it certainly still has legs. Regularly the highest-grossing show in the West End, The Lion King is the only current show that expect will hit the 25/30+ years like Les Mis and Phamtom.
Mamma Mia is one I can't decide on - it's in its third venue, is a small production with low weekly costs, and is still popular. They don't discount regularly through TKTS/angencies but do regularly dynamic price down. As previously mentioned, the new movie may give it a boost - given that it's run for 18 years (I think?) I wouldn't be surprised if it did another 7-10, but equally I wouldn't be massively surprised if it did close.
Wicked - love it or hate it, it's going nowhere. Selling well in the biggest theatre in the West End. Almost 11 years so far, easily can go a bit further. Unless we get a mega movie-musical sure fire hit demanding the Apollo, I'd be surprised to see it close any time soon.
Kinky Boots as previously mentioned is touring from next year - I would expect the London production to close when this starts, but who knows.
The Book of Mormon I can't see going anyway for a while. It's a small theatre (by musical standards anyway) and they're still regularly dynamic pricing up to a very high price and is packing them in. I can't see it moving to another theatre in all honesty, the Prince of Wales is perfect for the show and has the perfect location for passing trade. I can't see it going for 25 years, but I could see it reaching 10. Again, going on tour in the next couple of years, I would imagine the West End production will say open but you never know.
Matilda still has plenty of life yet too. I could see it hitting 10 years, it could even downsize if necessary. Tour is selling very well, will be interesting to see if/how that impacts the London show
42nd Street/An American in Paris - I give both of these 12-18 months at most. Nothing against the shows they're both brilliant, but they're gunning for the same target market and both have absolute barns to fill.
School of Rock - hopefully will achieve a similar length run to Matilda as it's a brilliant show. Again blessed with the perfect sized venue for it, will have to see how things play out over the next few years. Tour starts 2018/19.
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7,183 posts
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Post by Jon on Jun 21, 2017 14:33:55 GMT
Matilda still has plenty of life yet too. I could see it hitting 10 years, it could even downsize if necessary. Tour is selling very well, will be interesting to see if/how that impacts the London show Isn't Matilda already in a smallish theatre, I can't see how it could downsize further. I think Stomp will close if the plans for the Sondheim are approved. |
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4,984 posts
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Post by Someone in a tree on Jun 21, 2017 15:00:11 GMT
Bend it like Beckham should of run for years. No justice in the world!
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