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Post by vdcni on Jun 4, 2024 15:21:25 GMT
I haven't seen a single poll that looks like that.
Do you want to point them out?
BBCs polling average has Labour at 45%, Con at 24% and Reform at 11%. Nothing like what you're claiming
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Post by d'James on Jun 4, 2024 15:47:40 GMT
Reform look like at most winning 1 seat. Can't really make a coalition from that. Some surveys indicate a three-way split in the late 20's% for Con/Ref/Lab with Lib/Green/Other taking the crumbs. I still think a hung parliament is possible, particularly as Farage gives the ABL's an alternative to spoiling their papers. What does ABL mean? |
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Post by ceebee on Jun 4, 2024 15:56:23 GMT
Some surveys indicate a three-way split in the late 20's% for Con/Ref/Lab with Lib/Green/Other taking the crumbs. I still think a hung parliament is possible, particularly as Farage gives the ABL's an alternative to spoiling their papers. What does ABL mean? Sorry - "anybody but Labour". |
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Post by ceebee on Jun 4, 2024 15:59:39 GMT
I haven't seen a single poll that looks like that. Do you want to point them out? BBCs polling average has Labour at 45%, Con at 24% and Reform at 11%. Nothing like what you're claiming I'm referring to pre/post Farage-factor sentiment surveys in the Telegraph online. |
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950 posts
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Post by vdcni on Jun 4, 2024 16:05:26 GMT
I haven't seen a single poll that looks like that. Do you want to point them out? BBCs polling average has Labour at 45%, Con at 24% and Reform at 11%. Nothing like what you're claiming I'm referring to pre/post Farage-factor sentiment surveys in the Telegraph online. So are they actual properly conducted polls or online surveys on the Telegraph website. If the latter then not relevant. A link would have been useful. |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 4, 2024 17:14:37 GMT
Nigel Farage will win in Clacton, he will become an mp for the first time, congratulations- in a seat that Labour/Liberals have no chance of winning, it is also one less Tory seat, Nigel will boost Reform votes in the South of England at the expense of the Tories, which also will mean that Reform will not benefit by winning any seats, but the Liberals will. There are 25 seats that are marginal Tory/Liberal, if current opinion polls are anything to go by and a swing in these seat to Liberal, also it is a small number of seats for the Liberals to run a decent campaign in - Then that swing would be enough to make the Liberals His Majesty’s opposition. We could have a Canadian style meltdown. Gosh. That analysis seems so plausible. Is It Farage's plan? Destroy the Tory party so, either, he becomes Tory leader or Reform replaces the Tories? Do we end up with a proper three party system? Left, Middle and Right? Now that seems quite exciting. Who is the left party? |
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Post by ceebee on Jun 4, 2024 17:34:44 GMT
I'm referring to pre/post Farage-factor sentiment surveys in the Telegraph online. So are they actual properly conducted polls or online surveys on the Telegraph website. If the latter then not relevant. A link would have been useful. No, it's sentiment surveys of the general public rather than online readership. Check Telegraph.co.uk - if it's in the public domain it'll be in their in-depth election coverage section. If behind the paywall then you'll need a subscription. I'm not presenting it as definitive, just a perspective. P.S. Sentiment surveys are based on variable triggers rather than simple left/right/centre choices. As such, sentiment indexing is far more accurate in determining likely outcomes, as many voters decide on the day following a period of campaigning and profiling. |
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Post by n1david on Jun 4, 2024 17:48:41 GMT
I'm behind the paywall but a search for 'Sentiment' in their Election section provides no results. Searching for it in News produces nothing relevant. Mind you, that's more likely the fault of the Telegraph website search function.
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Post by vdcni on Jun 4, 2024 17:52:57 GMT
There was definitely one about the effect Farage standing in one of the byelections a few months back would have but that's a single constituency.
Obviously we'll see in the next few days what effect he has on polling but a leap from around 12% to high 20s feels highly unlikely.
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Post by ceebee on Jun 4, 2024 20:41:18 GMT
Heaven save us from them all, judging by the ITV debate.
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Post by oxfordsimon on Jun 4, 2024 20:46:16 GMT
I am very much a none of the above voter at the moment.
Nothing any of them are doing or saying is helping change that.
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Post by david on Jun 4, 2024 20:52:56 GMT
Watching the debate and quite honestly neither Starmer nor Sunak is coming across well in this for me. When the choice is between these two in a few week's time, it really is a depressing situation for the future of this country.
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Post by BVM on Jun 4, 2024 21:21:30 GMT
Absolute state of that “debate.”
Abysmal!
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Post by parsley1 on Jun 4, 2024 22:54:35 GMT
Watching the debate and quite honestly neither Starmer nor Sunak is coming across well in this for me. When the choice is between these two in a few week's time, it really is a depressing situation for the future of this country. No one is forced to vote If everyone abstains it will send a clear message Instead people are obsessed with “exercising their right” The plain truth is ANY government is too spineless to confront the issues we face in our society We have a nanny state with a populace unable to stand on their own feet either, financially and socially with no resilience This dependence cannot be reversed no one has the balls to do it Any solutions offered by either leader fail to see the scale and gravity of the problems we face Any tokens offered are a tiny speck and will make no tangible difference 300, 000 extra appointments in London per year under Labour People expect an appointment for one hour of sore throat or one day of a cough You can offer unlimited everything, appointments, education, support As long as people don’t know how to take what is on offer appropriately and it’s free it will never be enough |
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Post by Jan on Jun 5, 2024 5:53:35 GMT
Absolute state of that “debate.” Abysmal! I was interested to hear that Starmer's father was a toolmaker - lucky he said it twice otherwise I might have missed it. He should say that more often in case there are people who don't know. |
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Post by Someone in a tree on Jun 5, 2024 7:24:18 GMT
Last nights debate was a dreary affair that i suspect will put people off politics.
My only reason for wanting to watch another is to see if Keir receives any media training, something i think he greatly needs.
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Post by Jan on Jun 5, 2024 8:07:11 GMT
My only reason for wanting to watch another is to see if Keir receives any media training, something i think he greatly needs. I fear that he has already received it. Training only takes you so far if you have no talent for it in the first place. The best ones don't need any - I mean the likes of Galloway (if you ignore the content of what he's saying obviously). In this respect Starmer reminds me a lot of John Major - except his father, excitingly, was a music hall performer. |
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Post by karloscar on Jun 5, 2024 8:09:39 GMT
Watching the debate and quite honestly neither Starmer nor Sunak is coming across well in this for me. When the choice is between these two in a few week's time, it really is a depressing situation for the future of this country. No one is forced to vote If everyone abstains it will send a clear message Instead people are obsessed with “exercising their right” The plain truth is ANY government is too spineless to confront the issues we face in our society We have a nanny state with a populace unable to stand on their own feet either, financially and socially with no resilience This dependence cannot be reversed no one has the balls to do it Any solutions offered by either leader fail to see the scale and gravity of the problems we face Any tokens offered are a tiny speck and will make no tangible difference 300, 000 extra appointments in London per year under Labour People expect an appointment for one hour of sore throat or one day of a cough You can offer unlimited everything, appointments, education, support As long as people don’t know how to take what is on offer appropriately and it’s free it will never be enough [br Yeah, take away voter's rights and ditch the "nanny state" and make everyone fend for themselves. Are you Nigel Farage, Parsley??? |
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Post by Someone in a tree on Jun 5, 2024 8:20:33 GMT
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Post by Jan on Jun 5, 2024 8:32:09 GMT
[br Yeah, take away voter's rights and ditch the "nanny state" and make everyone fend for themselves. Are you Nigel Farage, Parsley??? Abstaining isn't "taking away voter's rights" - it is exercising their rights. In countries where voting is mandatory they have to provide a "None of the above" alternative on the ballot which is the same thing. Just out of interest which of the Farage/Reform policies would you class as making "everyone fend for themselves" ? You shouldn't jump to the conclusion that populist politicians are all economically Thatcherite in all respects - for example Le Pen in France has an economic policy well to the left of Starmer - nationalization of some of the banks for example, and opposition to privatization and free trade. |
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Post by jojo on Jun 5, 2024 9:22:44 GMT
My only reason for wanting to watch another is to see if Keir receives any media training, something i think he greatly needs. I fear that he has already received it. Training only takes you so far if you have no talent for it in the first place. The best ones don't need any - I mean the likes of Galloway (if you ignore the content of what he's saying obviously). In this respect Starmer reminds me a lot of John Major - except his father, excitingly, was a music hall performer. The 'best' communicators happen to be the best liars. I'm not saying that the ability to communicate well isn't an important part or the role of serious politician, but if you have little regard for facts and are prepared to brazen it out and spin a yarn then it's easier to appear interesting. But there is a type of politician - and you get them across the political spectrum, like Galloway, Johnson, Farage and Salmond whose total belief in their own importance and lack of self-doubt makes them convincing salesmen. To the sort of person that doesn't want to check under the bonnet. As much as I loathe Farage and pretty much everything he stands for, I wouldn't mind if he were actually elected this time. He might have to do some work and be held accountable instead of swanning around stirring up hatred. |
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Post by Jon on Jun 5, 2024 9:58:54 GMT
I fear that he has already received it. Training only takes you so far if you have no talent for it in the first place. The best ones don't need any - I mean the likes of Galloway (if you ignore the content of what he's saying obviously). In this respect Starmer reminds me a lot of John Major - except his father, excitingly, was a music hall performer. As much as I loathe Farage and pretty much everything he stands for, I wouldn't mind if he were actually elected this time. He might have to do some work and be held accountable instead of swanning around stirring up hatred. Nigel Farage would honestly make Galloway look hardworking. I don't think he ever did any actual work as a MEP, he'd struggled with dealing with local people and local issues. |
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Post by Jan on Jun 5, 2024 9:59:45 GMT
I fear that he has already received it. Training only takes you so far if you have no talent for it in the first place. The best ones don't need any - I mean the likes of Galloway (if you ignore the content of what he's saying obviously). In this respect Starmer reminds me a lot of John Major - except his father, excitingly, was a music hall performer. The 'best' communicators happen to be the best liars. I'm not saying that the ability to communicate well isn't an important part or the role of serious politician, but if you have little regard for facts and are prepared to brazen it out and spin a yarn then it's easier to appear interesting. But there is a type of politician - and you get them across the political spectrum, like Galloway, Johnson, Farage and Salmond whose total belief in their own importance and lack of self-doubt makes them convincing salesmen. To the sort of person that doesn't want to check under the bonnet. As much as I loathe Farage and pretty much everything he stands for, I wouldn't mind if he were actually elected this time. He might have to do some work and be held accountable instead of swanning around stirring up hatred. Of course if we had PR voting Farage, Galloway and Corbyn would permanently be MPs, unable to be removed and unaccountable to the voters, and with about 5-15% of all MPs each. The LibDems never explain quite why that would be a good thing. |
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Jun 5, 2024 10:06:28 GMT
No one is forced to vote *mod edited for brevity full post upthread* Yeah, take away voter's rights and ditch the "nanny state" and make everyone fend for themselves. Are you Nigel Farage, Parsley???Can we try to do a bit better than this type of comment please? It doesn’t move the discussion on in any way. Thanks. |
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Post by Someone in a tree on Jun 5, 2024 10:34:27 GMT
As much as I loathe Farage and pretty much everything he stands for, I wouldn't mind if he were actually elected this time. He might have to do some work and be held accountable instead of swanning around stirring up hatred. Nigel Farage would honestly make Galloway look hardworking. I don't think he ever did any actual work as a MEP, he'd struggled with dealing with local people and local issues. I hold similar views and think it would be 'good' for the nation to see just how bad (or good) farage is |
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