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Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 17:40:23 GMT
What about wanting to leave but not on the ‘deal’ presented? I’m just saying that a second Ref should have exactly the same q on it as the first. We kinda know what ‘leave ‘ means now don’t we? Sounds like you and Jeremy Corbyn are like minded on this one |
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 17:41:20 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 17:41:20 GMT
By what margin will defeat mean victory next time; 44%? 46%? 48% ?
So you didn't read the reply the last time you posted that?? |
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 17:43:39 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 17:43:39 GMT
We are now in the Schrödinger's Brexit phase, all options are open and only when we open the box tomorrow we will know it’s true state. At the moment the rumours are that Johnson is caving in on all the EU sticking points to get a Deal and avoid an extension request, willing to leave Northern Ireland in the Customs Union with a border in the Irish Sea until a solution is found for the Border issue (in reality forever) and even potentially agreeing to a level playing field leaving the UK remaining in the single market by proxy with all the regulatory and working rights this entails. This is a Deal that could get through Parliament as it is close to what Labour required of a Deal but a complete capitulation and a softer Brexit then the May Deal and will enrage both the Brexiteer Tories and DUP.The Benn-Act could ironically set up the soft Brexit that Corbyn has always really wished for. Things are moving so fast that on posting this will most likely be complete bull, all states remain in play and cannot believe even Johnson would cave in that much and I’m sure some in Parliament can be ‘bought’ to get the numbers. You'll have to explain that one further?? Do you mean Johnson may have conceded more than Theresa May so that means he is closer to the Labour party position? |
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 17:44:20 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 17:44:20 GMT
Relieved so many football fans from a Empire of Virtue member state didn't have to endure for a minute longer those ignorant, bigoted, In-ger-lan supporters last night. Irony? |
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 18:29:43 GMT
Post by Snciole on Oct 15, 2019 18:29:43 GMT
Anyone off to the march on Saturday? I will be wearing my Buffet B*tch against Brexit t-shirt. |
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Post by vdcni on Oct 15, 2019 18:34:56 GMT
He's trying to pretend Remainers view the EU as perfect so that Bulgarian Football supporters being racist somehow damages the remain argument even though no one claims the EU or any of the individual countries are perfect.
Of course if we're using football fans as representatives of countries then England doesn't come off very well either.
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 18:46:38 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Oct 15, 2019 18:46:38 GMT
theglenbucklaird If the rumours are true then 1. Customs Border in the Irish Sea, Northern Ireland stays in the Customs Union in all but name. The EU found the dual border proposal unworkable under country of origin requirements. e.g. chicken comes from the UK, pie made in Northern Ireland, exported to Ireland, what tariff do you apply to the chicken and where? 2. Level Playing Field France primarily want the level playing field to remain as they do not want a lower regulated, low tax nation on its doorstep. If we take what Labour/Corbyn wanted from a Deal was remaining in the Customs Union and the Single Market which this Deal if true will likely achieve. 1, will be a compromise with the likelihood this will be short term, the only way to get away from WTO requirements with the EU will be a requirement to meet the majority of EU current Customs Tariff requirements and therefore we will remain in the Customs Union by proxy and therefore default to the current ‘free trade’ rules. 2. The only way a level playing field is to remain in the single market by proxy. Therefore the Deal does away without any pretence that we are only leaving the EU by name, with the Customs Border in the Irish Sea the give away. What has never really been stated is that leaving the EU is a myth. To export to any Country or Trading Block you have to meet their standards, to ship medicines to the USA we have to comply with FDA requirements and we in the UK have no influence on these requirements only the requirement to comply and to trade with the EU we will have to meet their Regulatory requirements, we may bring back the Kite Mark (showing my age) but to ship our products to the EU we still have to meet CE requirements. The only perceived advantage of leaving the EU are that we can set our own tariffs, in reality, are we going to be able to negotiate individually better terms than a trading block of 28 Nation states and our tariffs with the EU will likely stay the same but there is nothing stopping them putting them up on some items a la Trump and China compounded by the fact all the other Nations outside the EU will have us over a barrel as we will be desperate to get off the WTO tariffs. in reality all we will have done is given up our Free Travel Arrangements, our ability to influence the regulations and direction of our biggest trading partner which our products will have to meet, introduced the need to generate export paperwork and collect the tariffs individually for 27 Countries, all to save the £125 per person we pay to the EU each year.
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Oct 15, 2019 18:48:23 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 18:48:23 GMT
The reasoning, I believe, is that we had a referendum with a decision ‘in principle’ and that, to complete the democratic response, there should be a referendum on the deal reached ‘in practice’. This makes sense, to me, and the logic is compelling. It also clarifies the mess created by the first referendum and means that, as it is a vote on something that is factual rather than hypothetical, it would be complete in a way that the first one clearly wasn’t. Vote Labour then I don’t trust Corbyn for one second on Brexit. It would take a lot to tempt me to back Labour again and I was shocked at how they came across at their conference. It reminded me of the dark days of the early eighties when rigid ideological purity held sway and that purity of opposition helped to destroy the lives of working class people across the country. If any Labour MP enables Brexit by voting for it, it’s similarly going to be a long, long way back to them being trusted again. A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. |
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2,340 posts
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 19:05:40 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 19:05:40 GMT
I don’t trust Corbyn for one second on Brexit. It would take a lot to tempt me to back Labour again and I was shocked at how they came across at their conference. It reminded me of the dark days of the early eighties when rigid ideological purity held sway and that purity of opposition helped to destroy the lives of working class people across the country. If any Labour MP enables Brexit by voting for it, it’s similarly going to be a long, long way back to them being trusted again. A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. I thought it was a good conference, some good policies debated |
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Oct 15, 2019 19:09:45 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2019 19:09:45 GMT
He's trying to pretend Remainers view the EU as perfect so that Bulgarian Football supporters being racist somehow damages the remain argument even though no one claims the EU or any of the individual countries are perfect. Of course if we're using football fans as representatives of countries then England doesn't come off very well either. It’s a completely myopic view of the importance of international institutions and co-operation. Divide international institutions and then countries and then regions into smaller and smaller political entities and you weaken the power of people to organise against things such as racism. This, and issues such as climate and worker’s rights and food standards and so on need to be pan-national. If that means a racist in Bulgaria is subject to censure from groups in other member countries then that is a good thing. It may be distasteful to share a parliament with scum like Orban but we can join with Bulgarians, Hungarians etc. who challenge such things. Take away those institutions and, while it might make some feel better, it will condemn our fellow Europeans (or whatever wider identity is being offered). |
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2,340 posts
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Brexit
Oct 15, 2019 20:00:19 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Oct 15, 2019 20:00:19 GMT
theglenbucklaird If the rumours are true then 1. Customs Border in the Irish Sea, Northern Ireland stays in the Customs Union in all but name. The EU found the dual border proposal unworkable under country of origin requirements. e.g. chicken comes from the UK, pie made in Northern Ireland, exported to Ireland, what tariff do you apply to the chicken and where? 2. Level Playing Field France primarily want the level playing field to remain as they do not want a lower regulated, low tax nation on its doorstep. If we take what Labour/Corbyn wanted from a Deal was remaining in the Customs Union and the Single Market which this Deal if true will likely achieve.1, will be a compromise with the likelihood this will be short term, the only way to get away from WTO requirements with the EU will be a requirement to meet the majority of EU current Customs Tariff requirements and therefore we will remain in the Customs Union by proxy and therefore default to the current ‘free trade’ rules. 2. The only way a level playing field is to remain in the single market by proxy. Therefore the Deal does away without any pretence that we are only leaving the EU by name, with the Customs Border in the Irish Sea the give away. What has never really been stated is that leaving the EU is a myth. To export to any Country or Trading Block you have to meet their standards, to ship medicines to the USA we have to comply with FDA requirements and we in the UK have no influence on these requirements only the requirement to comply and to trade with the EU we will have to meet their Regulatory requirements, we may bring back the Kite Mark (showing my age) but to ship our products to the EU we still have to meet CE requirements. The only perceived advantage of leaving the EU are that we can set our own tariffs, in reality, are we going to be able to negotiate individually better terms than a trading block of 28 Nation states and our tariffs with the EU will likely stay the same but there is nothing stopping them putting them up on some items a la Trump and China compounded by the fact all the other Nations outside the EU will have us over a barrel as we will be desperate to get off the WTO tariffs. in reality all we will have done is given up our Free Travel Arrangements, our ability to influence the regulations and direction of our biggest trading partner which our products will have to meet, introduced the need to generate export paperwork and collect the tariffs individually for 27 Countries, all to save the £125 per person we pay to the EU each year. Just don't get that leap |
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Oct 16, 2019 13:04:03 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 13:04:03 GMT
I don’t trust Corbyn for one second on Brexit. It would take a lot to tempt me to back Labour again and I was shocked at how they came across at their conference. It reminded me of the dark days of the early eighties when rigid ideological purity held sway and that purity of opposition helped to destroy the lives of working class people across the country. If any Labour MP enables Brexit by voting for it, it’s similarly going to be a long, long way back to them being trusted again. A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. Jess Phillips is one of the local MPs in Birmingham and is in the press quite a lot with her views but I just don't see her as an electable Labour Leader. She could be portrayed by the press as a batty feminist and she has pro-Israel views which wouldn't sit well with the JC faction. I think the next Labour Leader will be someone still more from JC's ideology but will be a younger more media friendly person who can potentially galvanize the younger voters who could be flirting with the Greens for example. A lot would depend on what happened at any election or the likelihood of another election soon. If JC didn't win a majority at next election then I'll figure he'll likely go. If another election was likely within a year or two then Labour have to go for someone who is seen immediately as electable. If next election was going to be 4 or 5 years away then maybe go for a younger person who can grow into the role. I haven't voted Labour for 29 years but I've tried to give a non-judgemental view above. |
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Oct 16, 2019 13:57:46 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 13:57:46 GMT
I don’t trust Corbyn for one second on Brexit. It would take a lot to tempt me to back Labour again and I was shocked at how they came across at their conference. It reminded me of the dark days of the early eighties when rigid ideological purity held sway and that purity of opposition helped to destroy the lives of working class people across the country. If any Labour MP enables Brexit by voting for it, it’s similarly going to be a long, long way back to them being trusted again. A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. Jess Phillips is one of the local MPs in Birmingham and is in the press quite a lot with her views but I just don't see her as an electable Labour Leader. She could be portrayed by the press as a batty feminist and she has pro-Israel views which wouldn't sit well with the JC faction. I think the next Labour Leader will be someone still more from JC's ideology but will be a younger more media friendly person who can potentially galvanize the younger voters who could be flirting with the Greens for example. A lot would depend on what happened at any election or the likelihood of another election soon. If JC didn't win a majority at next election then I'll figure he'll likely go. If another election was likely within a year or two then Labour have to go for someone who is seen immediately as electable. If next election was going to be 4 or 5 years away then maybe go for a younger person who can grow into the role. I haven't voted Labour for 29 years but I've tried to give a non-judgemental view above. The ones who are usually mentioned, Long Bailey and Pidcock are very average and not very compelling media performers. McDonnell is pretty good but hardly a breath of fresh air. |
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Oct 16, 2019 14:48:02 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 14:48:02 GMT
The ones who are usually mentioned, Long Bailey and Pidcock are very average and not very compelling media performers. McDonnell is pretty good but hardly a breath of fresh air. Rebecca Long-Bailey has been mentioned and was someone who I think could grow into a leader. Laura Pidcock I had to google to put a face to a name is realistically too young and may be better waiting. Plus the poor girl has that name. John McDonnell is 68 years old now so only a couple of years younger than JC plus he has had heart issues in the past which could count against him. I honestly think him and JC are a package and will finish together. Sir Kier Starmer is probably the sharpest of the Labour frontbench but would a Corbyn leaning party want him as leader? |
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Oct 16, 2019 18:14:57 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Oct 16, 2019 18:14:57 GMT
A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. Do you really have so little idea at all of Labour Party politics?
Anyway, I see the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Nicky Morgan has said today she is "open minded" when it comes to the BBC moving to a subscription service. Ministerial appointments in this Gov are temp my nature but I am reminded of a phrase that includes 'roost' and 'chickens'. BBC will have very few friends when this is all over.
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Brexit
Oct 16, 2019 18:23:12 GMT
Post by BurlyBeaR on Oct 16, 2019 18:23:12 GMT
I find Jess Philips “ever so ‘umble” act totally unconvincing.
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Oct 16, 2019 18:33:48 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Oct 16, 2019 18:33:48 GMT
I saw her earlier in the year at a Vauxhall fundraiser. Small-ish gathering of local people. She seems a nice, sincere person but she is lost at national level; naive/inexperienced, charging around like a moral knight with her trusty shield of Black Country honesty. I'd imagine even Tony Blair would have kept her at barge pole length.
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19,794 posts
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Brexit
Oct 16, 2019 18:48:52 GMT
Post by BurlyBeaR on Oct 16, 2019 18:48:52 GMT
That incident in the commons the other week where we were treated to the “ ooh I don’t understand Parliamentary procedure Mister Speaker, all I know is... blah blah”
You are paid £80k pa to know Parliamentary procedure dear. Learn it.
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Brexit
Oct 16, 2019 19:00:58 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 19:00:58 GMT
A party led by someone like Jess Phillips with a broadly centre left position would be cleaning up at the moment but apparently she’s not pure enough. Do you really have so little idea at all of Labour Party politics?
Anyway, I see the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Nicky Morgan has said today she is "open minded" when it comes to the BBC moving to a subscription service. Ministerial appointments in this Gov are temp my nature but I am reminded of a phrase that includes 'roost' and 'chickens'. BBC will have very few friends when this is all over.
Given that non Corbynites are, in the vast majority of cases, being reselected maybe the membership might be more surprising. I’m not holding my breath on that, though. Most of the shadow cabinet that have any visibility are just a joke, Gardiner and Burgon are particularly poor. Starmer and Thornberry are decent. The Beeb has definitely annoyed the left, I know. Add them to the already foaming ‘BBC is a tax’ group and it isn’t a good position for them to be in. I think, purely on the changes happening in broadcasting, that the BBC will likely be subscription based in a decade or so. Given the cost of streaming services, extra for sports and such, there is, however, a good argument that the poorest should have access to subsidised channels at the very least. The thought of people getting even more of their news from the wild west of social media isn’t something that any government should be encouraging. It’s perverting the idea of news as it is. |
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Oct 16, 2019 20:42:17 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Oct 16, 2019 20:42:17 GMT
BBC managers long ago perverted the notion of 'news', as the organisation itself has perverted its Charter obligation of impartiality. It's been a fascinating experiment in societal control but I suspect too many of those obliged to pay now recognise class-orientated propaganda when it's rubbed in their noses every hour on the hour.
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Oct 16, 2019 20:58:03 GMT
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 20:58:03 GMT
BBC managers long ago perverted the notion of 'news', as the organisation itself has perverted its Charter obligation of impartiality. It's been a fascinating experiment in societal control but I suspect too many of those obliged to pay now recognise class-orientated propaganda when it's rubbed in their noses every hour on the hour. So are you one of those who see the BBC as being a right wing scam then? My complaint is on a different matter, that they have been too bothered with spurious balance, so that where ideas were not equal there has been false equivalence. For far too long did they put a climate change denier on to ‘balance’ what the vast majority of those who actually know about these things believe, for example. Given the sheer mind blowing craziness of much of the press, that caused (yes, caused) Brexit, among other things, at least the BBC has given some voice to moderate viewpoints. When we are left with propaganda spread through social media and a press used as a frothing mouthpiece for the extremist views of their wealthy owners we will look back and wonder what idiots thought they were doing by leaving them to it. |
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Oct 16, 2019 21:15:06 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Oct 16, 2019 21:15:06 GMT
BBC managers long ago perverted the notion of 'news', as the organisation itself has perverted its Charter obligation of impartiality. It's been a fascinating experiment in societal control but I suspect too many of those obliged to pay now recognise class-orientated propaganda when it's rubbed in their noses every hour on the hour. So are you one of those who see the BBC as being a right wing scam then? What do the facts say ...
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Brexit
Oct 16, 2019 22:29:49 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Oct 16, 2019 22:29:49 GMT
Do you really have so little idea at all of Labour Party politics?
Anyway, I see the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Nicky Morgan has said today she is "open minded" when it comes to the BBC moving to a subscription service. Ministerial appointments in this Gov are temp my nature but I am reminded of a phrase that includes 'roost' and 'chickens'. BBC will have very few friends when this is all over.
Given that non Corbynites are, in the vast majority of cases, being reselected maybe the membership might be more surprising. I’m not holding my breath on that, though. Most of the shadow cabinet that have any visibility are just a joke, Gardiner and Burgon are particularly poor. Starmer and Thornberry are decent. The Beeb has definitely annoyed the left, I know. Add them to the already foaming ‘BBC is a tax’ group and it isn’t a good position for them to be in. I think, purely on the changes happening in broadcasting, that the BBC will likely be subscription based in a decade or so. Given the cost of streaming services, extra for sports and such, there is, however, a good argument that the poorest should have access to subsidised channels at the very least. The thought of people getting even more of their news from the wild west of social media isn’t something that any government should be encouraging. It’s perverting the idea of news as it is. I disagree with you on Barry Gardiner. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 22:48:09 GMT
Most of the shadow cabinet that have any visibility are just a joke, Gardiner and Burgon are particularly poor. Starmer and Thornberry are decent. I disagree with you on Barry Gardiner. He seems like a nice enough guy but he lacks authority and has a habit of getting flustered. Burgon just produces word salad a lot of the time. |
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Oct 17, 2019 15:25:53 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Oct 17, 2019 15:25:53 GMT
Initial thoughts.
From a personal perspective:
- would not lose sleep if the Deal as is went through, where I am in my life direct impact would not be great and most probably manageable.
- preferred way forward would be a confirmatory referendum as part of the Bill.
From a National perspective:
Opens up the possibility of the disintegration of the Union:
- Northern Ireland consent would mean the border in the Irish Sea would remain in perpetuity and in a generation the links with Ireland would become stronger than with the Union and an United Ireland would could to likely to occur naturally.
- Scotland will request a Leave referendum on ‘significant change’ basis and if you have to go through the pain of leaving the EU, why not go through the pain of leaving the UK and staying in Europe. Not sure if the numbers are there but cannot be discounted.
Trade & Regulation:
- As an individual nation can we really get better Tariffs than a combined entity of 27 Nations and deal with the vagaries of future Trumps playing with Tariffs for Political gain.
- Can we really compete with low wage / low regulatory nations with the potential impact on our living standards and wages.
- The EU will remain our biggest trading partner, to get a Free Trade Agreement likely we will have to continue to agree to EU rules over which we will have no influence.
- Future cost of compliance implications on trading with the EU.
Travel:
- Free movement in Europe is something I have enjoyed and taken advantage all my life.
- The opportunities to work overseas becomes more difficult.
I’m sure there are a lot more that will come to me but these are my initial musings and I’m sure more musings will be posted which I am looking forward to reading.
Leaving the EU is now more or less confirmed, whether it is Hard or Soft will be the next phase which could be just as painful as the advantages and disadvantages become more visible.
Impact on a General Election Thoughts:
It does not sound like Farage is ready to stand down as he thinks the Deal is not Brexit, if he has candidates in the GE they would likely eat into the Conservative votes and the Lib Dem impact on Labour would likely subside or even improve as from a size perspective if you want a softer Brexit (Custom Union / Single Market) only a Labour Government could negotiate these in the years of negotiations we have ahead of us.
Could this Deal be the opening Labour have been secretly waiting for! against the Deal in public on the Workers Rights/Environmental basis and then fighting a GE on only we can negotiate positively for these along with their for the many message.
Memories are short in Politics and the last General Election shows they are never fought on a single issue, without Brexit the focus would likely fall on Austerity and it’s impact on Public Services and the Welfare State, it is very rare even if you are in work with Tax Credits etc Most people will have been impacted in some way or other over the last 10 years.
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