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Post by olliebean on Jan 14, 2022 22:28:16 GMT
Boris' Red Wall and Trump's Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan) are both interchangeable, both won big on the respective general election 2019 and 2016 US Presidential Election and Trump in the 2020 US Presidential election lost all and big in the Rust Belt to Biden, the same will happen to Johnson, the polls in the red wall looks especially dreadful. It won't happen to Johnson, because Johnson will be gone by then.
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Post by olliebean on Jan 13, 2022 22:46:15 GMT
Labour are doing well because of the Prime Minister’s own goals, such as changing law to save a colleague, which ended up in a completely disastrous by-election, wall paper and now lockdown parties. The worry is that the Conservatives slump in the polls when Boris’ gaffes and not when the opposition oppose. As much as it is a test for Boris, it is also a bigger test how good the opposition is. My worry is that the lower they slump in the polls, the harder they will bounce back when they finally get rid of him and put someone less obviously dreadful in charge.
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Post by olliebean on Jan 13, 2022 22:39:40 GMT
I'm not sure anything much has changed in practice; you still have to isolate for up to 10 days until you get negative lateral flow tests on two consecutive days, and anecdotal evidence suggests most people aren't getting negatives yet on days 5 and 6.
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Post by olliebean on Jan 9, 2022 18:04:37 GMT
Nahawi said the Sunday Times story isn't true. Who do I trust to be telling the truth - the Murdoch press, or a minister of the current government? A bit of a Hobson's choice, to be sure.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 30, 2021 22:15:05 GMT
Given that Sky Arts is on Freeview, is there any way to watch this on catch-up without a subscription? The only options I can see are Sky Go or Now TV, both of which require one.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 28, 2021 11:47:10 GMT
Once again: if it's 1/3 as likely to put you in hospital as Delta, but more than 3 times as many people get it at once than Delta, that's more people in hospital than with Delta.
Also, on a personal level: if it's 1/3 as likely to put you in hospital as Delta, but you're more than 3 times as likely to catch it as Delta, then you're more likely to end up in hospital than with Delta.
Um... not really. As an exampe If a group of people are 33% likely to go to to the hospital from delta but now are 11% likely with omicron, it doesn't mean we can exactly 11% of people getting it in a group needing the hospital. A reduction in illness is a GOOD thing. Not sure why people are poo pooing it every time it's raised. If the group of people is everyone who gets it then yes, that's exactly what it means.
A reduction in the chance of serious illness is good from the point of view of an individual person who has Covid. But if you are currently Covid-free, your overall chance of ending up in hospital due to Covid is a function not just of how likely you are to go to hospital if you get Covid, but also of how likely you are to get Covid. If the latter increases by a greater factor than the former reduces, that's not a good thing.
Think of it like this: suppose planes were redesigned to make them more resilient in a crash, with the result that on average 1/3 as many passengers will die if the plane crashes. You might instinctively think that was a good thing. But if the change adversely affects the aerodynamics, so that planes crash 4 times more often, then overall 4/3 times as many people will die in plane crashes. So not such a good thing after all.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 28, 2021 10:12:34 GMT
On the second point, omicron is looking milder than Delta for sure.it seems. If it kills of Delta, that's a good thing Once again: if it's 1/3 as likely to put you in hospital as Delta, but more than 3 times as many people get it at once than Delta, that's more people in hospital than with Delta.
Also, on a personal level: if it's 1/3 as likely to put you in hospital as Delta, but you're more than 3 times as likely to catch it as Delta, then you're more likely to end up in hospital than with Delta.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 26, 2021 23:19:48 GMT
I've seen plenty of stories of hospitality workers being told by their employers that they have to go into work regardless of symptoms unless and until they have a positive PCR test result, in some cases even after a positive LFT. Absolutely wrong-headed and certainly against the guidance, if not the law (I'm a bit vague about exactly what is legally prohibited now, since it's considerably less than I was avoiding doing anyway).
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Post by olliebean on Dec 25, 2021 19:14:16 GMT
Indeed, it is the same concert!
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Post by olliebean on Dec 25, 2021 10:13:55 GMT
The musical has better songs, though.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 24, 2021 22:34:20 GMT
BBC Four has "John Williams Live - Music from the Movies" at 7:10pm tomorrow: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0013c0rIt's about the same length (pretty much identical if you correct for a slightly different frame rate), so I can't help wondering if it's the same concert. The BBC website is, to say the least, short on details.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 24, 2021 10:19:27 GMT
No, they weren't wrong. They didn't say it would definitely happen. They said it was plausible. Which it was, given the available data at the time.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 24, 2021 10:12:29 GMT
I think there are three more books in the series, so there's plenty of additional material to make a second film. But I really can't see the wisdom behind splitting the existing musical into two films, if that's what the plan is (which I doubt).
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Post by olliebean on Dec 22, 2021 9:56:03 GMT
From that article:
Which is pretty much what I said the last time you made the point about Omicron being milder - if we carry on as normal with no restrictions, the increased transmissibility will likely more than cancel out the reduced virulence, when it comes to absolute numbers of severe cases.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 21, 2021 23:01:39 GMT
70% fewer severe cases is still considerably greater numbers of severe cases, in view of the greater number of cases overall due to how much more transmissible it is. A much greater number of cases if we all "crack on without restrictions."
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Post by olliebean on Dec 20, 2021 18:44:57 GMT
That's pretty much how I felt the day after my booster, although in my case it was the post-jab arm pain that had kept me awake most of the night. Yes, the arm pain did not help my attempts to sleep last night. I usually sleep on both sides alternately, swapping over a number of times in the night, so being stuck witn only one available side was a pain both literally & figuratively. Me too, but that first night the pain was so bad that it kept me awake even laying on my other side. Thankfully it started to get better the next day and I was able to sleep on subsequent nights, but it was about a week before I could comfortably lay on that side.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 19, 2021 23:10:39 GMT
I had pretty much no symptoms at all after my first Pfizer, slightly sore arm and a bit tired but that was it. So far I'm on sore arm & not exactly a headache but a sort of woolly-headed feeling. Though it's difficult to know if that's entirely due to the vaccine or partly due to tiredness, as I didn't sleep well last night due to pre-jab nerves. That's pretty much how I felt the day after my booster, although in my case it was the post-jab arm pain that had kept me awake most of the night.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 19, 2021 19:11:03 GMT
Apparently the new version is more contagious (but much milder) and we are all going to get it. there's no evidence supporting any of this at present There's certainly evidence that it's much more infectious. Whether or not it's milder is still inconclusive.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 18, 2021 21:51:24 GMT
Broadway HD? Or is it on another one too?
The Rob Marshall movie version is on BBC4 on 28th December, for what it's worth, but you'll have to stay up late for it (11:20pm) - or catch it on iPlayer afterwards.
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Post by olliebean on Dec 8, 2021 22:37:31 GMT
The Government have now created a situation where if you don't follow the rules you are endangering others but if you do you feel complicit in their lies.. If you follow the rules then it means you're not taking the government as your role models. I'm going to do the right thing because I'm a better person than Boris Johnson. Perhaps the Labour Party should start a mask-wearing campaign with the slogan "Be Better than Boris."
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Post by olliebean on Dec 5, 2021 11:56:31 GMT
FWIW, the Meet the Queens episode is up on YouTube for free:
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Post by olliebean on Nov 28, 2021 18:21:19 GMT
Mods - can we ‘muzzle’ this person in the real sense with a swift block? I’m all for free speech but don’t come to this board for trolling which surely this person is otherwise there’s really no hope... This is the Covid thread and I'm talking about Covid. I'm not saying anything rude to anyone just expressing a different (and widely held) opinion to others on here. Earlier you posted this: I'm triple jabbed as most people will be soon. Enough is enough. Let's crack on and deal with any extra deaths if we have to which strikes me as either trolling or sheer callousness.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 26, 2021 23:33:28 GMT
We might have to through if this variant is worse case scenario. Or simply let thousands and thousands of people die. Business as usual for this government, then.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 26, 2021 11:37:11 GMT
Some of those people who think they just have a cold probably have Covid - the symptoms of the current variant, particularly in vaccinated people, are far more similar to colds than earlier variants, and the government, for reasons best known to themselves, don't seem to be interested in publicising this fact, or in changing the now outdated list of symptoms that qualify you for a free PCR test. Most people are still using LFT tests, which would pick it up if that was true. Most people also probably just have a cold. I saw today that according to the ZOE Covid Symptom Study, approx. a quarter of people with cold symptoms actually have Covid. I thought it was interesting and informative to put a number on it - a higher number than I would have guessed. It's likely to be a little lower than that in public, as some people will have been responsible and got tested and be isolating if it was positive, but food for thought, at any rate - especially as the government guidance still doesn't recognise the updated symptoms, or officially allow you to get a test on the basis of them.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 25, 2021 22:47:50 GMT
I thought it was a fair result from that episode, although she wouldn't have been my pick from the whole season. The other two felt to me like they'd not realised it was the final, and weren't bringing their A game. Ella in particular.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 21, 2021 18:15:04 GMT
Anyone else wishing they could see Superbia after watching this?
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Post by olliebean on Nov 20, 2021 23:22:48 GMT
This is from over a month ago and it has since been established that the negative PCR results were wrong, I think because of problems at the lab. The LF tests rarely give false positives (but frequently give false negatives).
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Post by olliebean on Nov 20, 2021 14:12:32 GMT
Some of those people who think they just have a cold probably have Covid - the symptoms of the current variant, particularly in vaccinated people, are far more similar to colds than earlier variants, and the government, for reasons best known to themselves, don't seem to be interested in publicising this fact, or in changing the now outdated list of symptoms that qualify you for a free PCR test. Most people are still using LFT tests, which would pick it up if that was true. Most people also probably just have a cold. Self-administered LFT tests have around 40% false negative rate, meaning if someone has Covid the LFT test won't pick it up around 40% of the time. So that could still be a lot of people believing they don't have it when they do.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 20, 2021 11:43:39 GMT
Winter illness is definitely in full swing - most people who don't have Covid seem to have some sort of cold, and the amount of coughing on the Tube is much higher than it has been. And the Tube is ridiculously busy in rush hour now, before 9am it's close to pre-pandemic levels sometimes. Some of those people who think they just have a cold probably have Covid - the symptoms of the current variant, particularly in vaccinated people, are far more similar to colds than earlier variants, and the government, for reasons best known to themselves, don't seem to be interested in publicising this fact, or in changing the now outdated list of symptoms that qualify you for a free PCR test.
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Post by olliebean on Nov 18, 2021 22:45:15 GMT
I have read about people suffering side affects but absolutely nobody among my pals had had other than a slightly sore arm or feeling tired. I would urge people to go get the booster. I think it will be an annual event! I had side effects (flu like aches, shivers, general feeling of being unwell) after all 3 Pfizer jabs but they lasted a day and a half at most (except the sore arm which was a few days) and I’d happily take it once a year. So would I, but from comments I've seen on the web a lot of people who've had vaccine side effects seem to have assimilated the idea that the vaccine makes you ill, but not the idea that the virus can make you iller.
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