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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 14:36:04 GMT
The point about shows running with smaller audiences revolves around the “weekly nut”, the point at which costs are covered and losses avoided. To have a production running with, say, a 20% downturn will put many into a loss making position, even 10% will make the difference. This is show but also business, so such a production will close. Theatres could reduce rent, employees take a pay cut but there is only a small margin that could be withstood, there’s a reason for high ticket prices. Hamilton? Probably fine, it’s also got a young audience who will feel much more safe, maybe the highest ticket prices will have to come down. Phantom? Lots of tourists missing, so very much touch and go. Phantom and Les Miserables are protected by the fact they are in theatres which are owned by their respective creatives and they've generated so much profit in the last 30 odd years that they could afford to dip into their cash reserves. Through equally they might just shut the doors for a year and revive them when theatre world is profitable again (through if international tourism never returns to anywhere near the old extent that might never be the case for the big musicals.)
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 14:29:46 GMT
It will till a vaccine comes. International tourism will be non-existent for months one way or another - internal tourism within the UK will take up some of the slack. Can't see lots of people going to London from the rest of the UK- people will replace international holidays with rural holidays in the UK.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 14:18:18 GMT
The thing is there are people out there now ignoring the social distancing rules and putting themselves and others at risk, even when deaths are at 900 a day. So I find it difficult to imagine that there wont be a significant amount of people that will be happy to sit with strangers when the powers that be have deemed it safe enough to do so, especially after being cooped up for so long not being allowed to do that. Less than there were before for a while, sure. But many will be more eager than they've ever been to do anything but stay at home. In regards to saving money, obviously everyone's employment and financial situation at the moment is different. But for those that continue to get any form of significant income, they currently aren't spending any of that on leisure, entertainment, travel, eating out etc. So they're already essentially saving money. And if we're honest, most of the people that can usually afford to regularly see West End or Broadway theatre at non-discounted prices probably aren't the ones struggling the most through these times. When this is over, people will move on to the next thing. Now we expect - and we hope - that whatever it will be wont be as life-changing as this has been. But regardless, it will dominate the news, the media wont shut up about it and coronavirus will soon enough be a distant memory for all but the most seriously affected. The less it gets talked about as the months go by, the less people think about it and the less they let it change how they live their lives. Look at the way brexit has gone from being the only think you'd ever hear about when you turned on the TV or radio to barely mentioned because they have something new to focus on. Most people are being sensible - don’t let the headlines about over zealous police fool you, and most of these stories come from outside of London, so has less to theatre I suppose (assuming we’re staying on topic). On the issue of finances, I’m sorry but you’re being not all together fair - many people in many industries have been furloughed or worse and are struggling financially. Not everyone can work from home and even if some people can, not everyone can be sure that a second wave will be dealt with in the same way it is now. West end tickets are expensive (at standard full price) and a night out for two, with food and transport etc, can lead into a £200+ very easily - well over £2k a year if done monthly. So yes, I can actually see people cutting back on this and opting to save instead because this is probably a wake up to a lot of people to start saving a bit more Thinking people will forget about Coronavirus though simply because a new issue will distract us is rather shortsighted of you. Regarding Brexit, we are in a transition period and the government has always said they will not seek to extent it. The only reason Brexit went on like it did in the media is because the politicians couldn’t get anything done and we didn’t know how or if we were leaving. That got sorted (more or less) and as a result of all of those dramas, the government are now using some of the contingency plans (for medicine, food etc) to deal with coronavirus. But Brexit coverage largely died down when we left in January. Over 10,000 British people dying on British soil hasn’t happened for god knows how many years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a day of remembrance sorted for it so no, I don’t think it will be forgotten. More than that die of several different types of cancer every year.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 14:16:27 GMT
Tourism isn't going to die. Stop suggesting it will. Tourism wont die but its not going back to 2020 levels for a few years. There will be fewer flights at higher prices for the foreseeable future. Which will kill toursm as simply only the rich and those going to see family or freinds will bother. Most of the People who have made city breaks to New York will not be crossing the Atlantic for a weekend in New York any time soon.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 14:13:27 GMT
tourism that won't come back - plenty of people very happy that lack of flights has helped pollution and will very hard to stop the levels before returning - lot's of talk of going on a flight is never essential and nobody ever needs to travel where a train cant get them too. Tourism isn't going to die. Stop suggesting it will. It will till a vaccine comes.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 12:26:04 GMT
Well, "quickly" is a flexible term - I don't expect everything to be back to normal within one or two months, but I also don't expect the doom-mongering here that sees theatres closed to the end of the year or even through 2021. Why? Because so many areas of the economy are based on people being in close proximity to each other: Public transport from the local bus to long-haul flights, all sorts of events from theatre and cinema to sports events to conferences, factories and large warehouses, every shopping street and market, every aspect of tourism... and when you look at just how hard a one-month-lockdown has already hit the global economy, it just isn't feasible to sustain this over six month (or more). I expect a step-by-step opening up: Small shops first, restaurants, smaller cinemas and theatres, too. And yes, if necessary with gaps between people. I mean, the cinema I regularly visit is rarely ever "full" and people cluster together in the middle section of the last 4-5 rows, so they can easily spread out. We may not see a packed Palladium for several months, but at least for the long-runs and producers with deep pockets it may be more profitable to run shows in front of 200 people than generating no income at all. It will be longer until big venues of +5000 seats (such as football stadiums) will open up again and I don't expect to see any rock festivals happening at all this year with 50,000 crammed together in front of a stage. But I do think it's possible to let a few hundred healthy people who are very observant of current hygiene rules (wash hands, use a face mask) within close proximity of each other in a theatre. Of course I could be wrong. This is just my personal thinking and hoping. I know that as soon as things are opening up again I will be on my way to London to support the industry I love so much... Well I said ‘quickly’ because you called out the people saying it would take ‘months’ to get back to normal. I agree that the economy can’t just shut down long term but let’s be honest - if it has to I suppose it will. Over 100,000 people have died globally from this and unless it is stamped out or vaccinated against, deaths will continue to occur - and until they stop or dramatically reduce to a position where the NHS can cope with the number of daily admissions, we are going to have to stay as we are... normality be damned. Spain and Italy are lifting some restrictions this week - with Germany not that far behind I’d have thought - so let’s see how they deal with it. France however are planning to remain in lockdown for a lot longer, and the US depends on the mood of The Trumpet in any given day. I just don’t see audiences rushing back to the theatre. Italy and Spain are simply allowing things the UK has never banned.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 12:16:02 GMT
Many will probably disagree, but I like to think I am just a 'regular' person, surrounded by other 'regular' people, so at the risk of this post coming back to bite me, here's what I think are the thoughts of the man on the Clapham omnibus. The British are, on the whole, rule takers...but only up to a point. Since mid-March we've had mostly stick, but over the coming weeks I think we'll be incentivised with more carrot...something along the lines of "Follow the regulations until the VE Day weekend, then we'll look at gradually relaxing them." If we're still in anything like the current lockdown by the late May bank holiday, I can genuinely see widespread, and unstoppable, civil disobedience. The Waynes of this world are already taking to Twitter to complain that their parents have paid, upfront, the 3K ground rent for their caravans, but have only been able to visit Skegness twice this year. And whilst professing to be the NHS's biggest supporters, those on the far-left will take a certain pride in disobeying a Conservative administration, and signalling it to their 15 followers! Depends on economics - the main reason people will rebel is fear of destitution. Italy and Spain have both passed their peak with weeks of lockdown to go - be interesting to see how people are reacting there in the coming weeks.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 12:13:40 GMT
I was musing last night as to whether there might be push-back from employers against their employees doing things like going to the theatre when officce re-open. Imagine how a company would feel if one employee went to somewhere with hundreds of people such as a theatre, caught coronavirus, & gave it to everyone else in the office. The company would then be paying out sick pay for weeks/months. So could companies add something to employees' contracts forbidding them to do activities outside work that increase the risk of coronavirus?
That is happening in South Korea - someone I know online is an EFL teacher in Seoul and his bosses tell him not to visit the city centre.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 11:23:24 GMT
Theatre will be back, but what makes you think it’ll be back quickly? Genuine question as I’m on the other side of the fence but would love to be wrong. Well, "quickly" is a flexible term - I don't expect everything to be back to normal within one or two months, but I also don't expect the doom-mongering here that sees theatres closed to the end of the year or even through 2021. Why? Because so many areas of the economy are based on people being in close proximity to each other: Public transport from the local bus to long-haul flights, all sorts of events from theatre and cinema to sports events to conferences, factories and large warehouses, every shopping street and market, every aspect of tourism... and when you look at just how hard a one-month-lockdown has already hit the global economy, it just isn't feasible to sustain this over six month (or more). I expect a step-by-step opening up: Small shops first, restaurants, smaller cinemas and theatres, too. And yes, if necessary with gaps between people. I mean, the cinema I regularly visit is rarely ever "full" and people cluster together in the middle section of the last 4-5 rows, so they can easily spread out. We may not see a packed Palladium for several months, but at least for the long-runs and producers with deep pockets it may be more profitable to run shows in front of 200 people than generating no income at all. It will be longer until big venues of +5000 seats (such as football stadiums) will open up again and I don't expect to see any rock festivals happening at all this year with 50,000 crammed together in front of a stage. But I do think it's possible to let a few hundred healthy people who are very observant of current hygiene rules (wash hands, use a face mask) within close proximity of each other in a theatre. Of course I could be wrong. This is just my personal thinking and hoping. I know that as soon as things are opening up again I will be on my way to London to support the industry I love so much... People won't buy tickets that are non refundable if a simple cough means they can't go.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 11:06:51 GMT
What use would spaced out seating be when everyone would be crowded into the foyer/toilets/corridors etc anyway? Fewer ticket sales means shorter queues for the toilets, and social distancing (as opposed to self isolation) isn't supposed to be about eliminating all risk, it's about reducing it. So spending three minutes in a toilet queue is still better than spending five minutes in a toilet queue AND two hours with a group of entirely new people who might not be trusted to stay at home if they have a temperature sitting half a metre behind you. Sitting side to side isn't going to be such a big problem in itself if everyone is spending most of the time facing the front, but getting in and out of rows would be. I'd say it's a possible half-way house for those who are a bit more bold, which isn't risk free, but is significantly less risky than now. However, I'd say a big problem with it is that the very fact you are spread out acts as a constant reminder that it's still not entirely safe out there. The financial viability is another thing. But if the alternative is for them to be empty then it might be a way for some theatres to generate some income. No-one will be getting rich by operating that way, but it might keep a few people in employment and pay towards general upkeep. I'd like to think that some theatre owners or producers with deep pockets will use the time to refurbish some theatres. Perhaps spread the seats out a bit for the purposes of leg-room if nothing else. The public transport network will be fully functioning long before theatres can reopen. I fully support the value of the arts, but people need the tube to get about for essential work, and to visit family and friends. If anything, authorities will be keen to keep theatres shut, as well as encouraging people to keep on working from home where possible, to keep the tube network as empty as possible for those who do need to use it. Temperature checks on the door might work but theatres would have to be willing to exchange or refund for those refused entry or no one will buy tickets. It's tourism that won't come back - plenty of people very happy that lack of flights has helped pollution and will very hard to stop the levels before returning - lot's of talk of going on a flight is never essential and nobody ever needs to travel where a train cant get them too.
Are they any figures of how much reliance on tourism is there in the West End.?
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 10:34:27 GMT
The TUBE is still running - first it be more people working then being allowed to go shopping. But sitting in a confined space like a theatre will literally be the last thing back bar massive outdoor events.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 10:17:26 GMT
Which is also why I don't agree with some of the doom mongering here how "theatre is dead" and won't be around for many months to come. Humans are built around communities and communal experiences, whether it's shared excitement over a sports event, singing along together at a rock concert or the experience of 1000 people being deeply moved by a play/musical on stage. Maybe we won't see big West End houses filled to capacity for a while if they need to ask people to spread out to keep their distance, but theatre will be back. Theatre will be back, but what makes you think it’ll be back quickly? Genuine question as I’m on the other side of the fence but would love to be wrong. I don’t think social distancing inside a theatre is practical at all - the queue for the bathrooms are infamously long and horrendous without 2m gaps, the bar is always 5 or 6 people deep at intervals and other than the long runners, I don’t think a show can dramatically reduce capacity and survive. Most west end theatres already make you feel like you’re sat on top of each other, so you’d need a good 2 or 3 seats empty either side of you, and I dare say 2 rows in front of you and behind you too. Then how do you stop people getting in and out of the one or two exists safely, without crowds forming? It’s bad enough when someone coughs at the theatre anyway, but now if someone coughs it’s going to take you out of the moment and make you worry. So I don’t see theatres re-opening until it’s completely safe to do so... and even then, there’s the question of audiences feeling safe enough to sit with strangers, alongside the question of personal finances: I imagine a lot of people will not be spending money on luxuries and will actually start to save once this is over - for fear of a repeat bought of hardship. Then of course is the question of how you fund new productions, whether shows can afford to return or whether they will survive and endure once the government lifts the ban (which presumably will be before public confidence has been restored). Returning to full form is going to be a long game as - and unless I’m missing something, this current situation is much more than just an industry pause. We will get more virtual streaming. With borders shut things should stream for international people - countries like New Zealand are no entry or exit until a vaccine comes.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 13, 2020 9:47:23 GMT
I don't think it's a "first world problem" - live entertainment is as old as humanity. Sure, the overpriced glitzy shows in the West End and on Broadway are very much a first world thing, but people have congregated around fires to listen to stories being told/acted out/sung in every corner of the world for millennia. It's a communical experience like no other. Even today, when things are geared towards being consumed alone at home, people meet again on the internet to "live-tweet" along with TV shows and such to share the experience with others. Which is also why I don't agree with some of the doom mongering here how "theatre is dead" and won't be around for many months to come. Humans are built around communities and communal experiences, whether it's shared excitement over a sports event, singing along together at a rock concert or the experience of 1000 people being deeply moved by a play/musical on stage. Maybe we won't see big West End houses filled to capacity for a while if they need to ask people to spread out to keep their distance, but theatre will be back. When all of this began only 6-8 weeks ago, nobody really knew a thing. I remember that for my last theatre trip, they had put tables in the foyer with bottles of hand disinfectant that were blithely ignored by most. I think now people would be very much aware of following rules such as hand-washing/disinfecting, wearing masks to protect others and stay at home when they feel ever so slightly ill. Perhaps theatres need to be more lenient for some time, making it easier to return/refund or exchange tickets to discourage the usual "oh, it's only a slight cold, of course I'll use my ticket as I don't want to lose my money" logic. That might need government legislation to ensure it happens even through without you are encouraging the spread considering high ticket prices.
Can any thetre run on spaced out seating- that seems like it wont happen. Afterall if the seating has to be spaced out so will everyone on stage - so that rules out most musicals and plays.
Cinemas might be able to function like that but not sure theatres can.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 12, 2020 15:27:10 GMT
I will. It's one of my favourite places in the world and when it is safe to do so I will be supporting the tourism industry there It is ludicrous to think that most places won't open up again in some capacity as soon as they reasonably can - too much of the economy and too many livelihoods depend on tourism for there to be any other outcome. Of course some people will be more cautious than others or otherwise incapable of going anywhere anytime soon, but for every one of those there is someone else who is fortunate enough to remain in employment, is saving a lot of money and will be first on a plane when travel does resume. I'll certainly be scheduling a NY trip and others as soon as I can. The question isn't whether there will be people travelling, it is when will that travelling be possible. I agree, this idea that nobody will go travelling or go on holiday for a long time is just doom mongering. Not Doom mongering but the truth.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 12, 2020 15:24:17 GMT
Economic war will happen with China, without doubt. It will be made to pay for the economic vacuum it created by allowing its ramshackle wet markets to continue. Expect to see Huawei lose UK deal, and sanctions in future. Hollyowood will go bust - none of the blockbusters are sustainable without China.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 12, 2020 9:37:37 GMT
I can see Broadway streaming shows in the UK to replace the need for Brits to go the USA. I doubt anyone in the uk will go to new york just to be a tourist for a very long while. Places like Majorica will only be for tourists who can go by boat or private jet - many don't think cheap flights will resume on economic or environmental grounds, Sorry to be harsh but the world has changed permanently a lot more than many on here are ready to accept.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 23:33:29 GMT
Don't a lot of shows rely on overseas tourists to keep them going in the summer. It doesn't mean theatre owners will be closing up their theatres as they'll always be shows looking for theatres. Not if it is uneconomical for shows to run in the west end.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 22:49:03 GMT
I doubt only we'll see 40% of theatres close in the West End or in general. Don't a lot of shows rely on overseas tourists to keep them going in the summer.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 17:32:04 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring. I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time. May I ask if you think that's because we will require long-term social distancing measures that will not be compatoble with the buildings? Or because of lack of demand? Or because the buildings will fall into disrepair? Or what? Working from home would increase the amount of people who never go out due to lack of friends. My likely future employment is office based but working from home would kill any chance of friendship making. I've been going out to work for 13 years & I still have no friends! Lack of demand.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:12:59 GMT
Anyway in a lot of london majoirty of commuters are the not able to work from home types.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:11:47 GMT
Working from home would increase the amount of people who never go out due to lack of friends. My likely future employment is office based but working from home would kill any chance of friendship making.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:10:00 GMT
I think shows will also be made for touring. I think no more than 60% of the current 500+ seaters in the west end will still be usable in 5 years time.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 16:06:20 GMT
I'd certainly like a share in a business that specialises in training people to work from home effectively, although that was already a trend before the virus (TfL had noted commuting in London dropped 5% while employment maxed out). I can't yet see how that isn't good news for the arts - instead of going how exhausted from work and having a pinged dinner in front of the tv, more people will surely need to escape the work/home for gossip and general sanity. I'm also quite hopeful the trend towards a shorter working week, spending part of the week at home, and better integration of childcare (inc. term-time only) will gain more impetus. Perhaps the greatest shift could be away from the growth model; we have all the wealth we need to create a fair and well funded social settlement - Germany and France are already way down that path from the UK. It might be the Green New Deal gets a new life. In terms of London, I'd cancel the new hotels, convert them to social housing and introduce quotas for tourists. Enough of this lunatic allure of growth. theatres rely on tourists - less tourists means some theatres will get demolished.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 12:23:25 GMT
basdfg I think that's unnecessarily apocalyptic and certainly not the view of my employer. Depends on what your industry is. Those who tend to suffer in a recession will still suffer but others will cope well.
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Post by basdfg on Apr 11, 2020 12:05:26 GMT
It's all speculation but to give a less pessimistic view - when I speak (virtually) to friends, one thing that comes up all the time is how much people miss communal experience, whatever that might be - the pub, parties, clubs, gigs, cinema and theatre; one person who is a confirmed atheist even said she feels sad walking past churches and feels a need to go inside and find a service she can join. There seems to be a general craving to experience things together in a way that technology just can't replicate. And many people, particularly in London, are working from home being paid exactly the same and therefore are saving loads of money because there's nothing to spend it on currently. I can easily foresee a huge splurge on all the things we've missed when restrictions are lifted and a greater appreciation of them. Yes, there will probably be a residual nervousness about big gatherings amongst some people for a while since we are now internalising a sense that other people are potentially dangerous to us and us to them, but people are generally adaptive and forgetful; the new normal quickly pushes out the old normal, as these strange days show. I will certainly be back in the theatres as soon as they open. And definitely pubs and restaurants as well, I have already had enough of my own cooking. And I predict there will be queues around the block for a haircut as soon as the hairdressers open again...! Most of the companies working from home now will still have to make job cuts or go bust in the next two years.
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