51 posts
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Post by easilypleased on Jun 9, 2017 21:51:55 GMT
Whatever your broader politics though Corbyn would be bad for theatre. In the shorter term higher taxes on higher earners would mean they would have less discretionary spend, and theatre going has to be one of the most marginal activities spend wise. There'd be fewer angels wanting to take a punt too. Medium term inflation would take off and again that would hit the theatre. Actors who vote Labour must be very altruistic because it would definitely hurt them if they ever got into power.
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 9, 2017 22:33:48 GMT
Someone please correct me if I have the details wrong, but Labour proposed an additional 5& income tax on earnings above the first £80,000 per year. That's a marginal increase for the 5% of taxpayers who can most easily afford it.
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2,706 posts
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 9, 2017 23:26:51 GMT
Seems to me she's very lucky that she did ever so marginally better than the Exit Poll suggested. At their predicted 314, even the 10 DUP seats wouldn't have been enough. She would have just squeaked a working majority. 650 seats less the Speaker (can't vote) and 7 Sinn Fein (don't attend) gives 642 voting MPs. Half of 642 is 321, so you need 322 to have a working majority. So, 314 Tory (exit poll) plus 10 DUP would have given a working majority, just! But, as you say, even tighter than the actual outcome. For those who saw This House or who remembers 1977 to 79 we are in similar territory and governing could quickly become impossible. A bye election loss or two, someone falling ill, a defection away from a new election. In the meantime the opposition can run them ragged. Anyway, I'm so glad younger voters turned out, democracy is in trouble if only certain parts of society feel that it matters.
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2,706 posts
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 9, 2017 23:31:26 GMT
Getting into bed with them isn't a good look for the Conservatives though, and being part of a coalition no matter how informal will sadly legitimise the DUP (in their own eyes if no one else's) and ensures another five years of misery for women who want control over their own bodies or same-sex couples who just want the same legal protections as opposite-sex ones. A better government could have led to long overdue social change in Northern Ireland. This is not that better government. Hopefully the added exposure will cause the British public to realise how vile, backward and damaging to Northern Ireland the DUP are. DUP members and at least one of their MPs have links to loyalist terrorism. So are we going to get a big splash in the Mail and Sun about that one do you think?
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2,051 posts
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Post by infofreako on Jun 10, 2017 1:18:36 GMT
Wasnt really the winner either, gained more seats than labour had pre election but not enough to make a real difference. Who knows what happens from here Not enough to make a difference?? Oh it is just starting I think.
I was hearing rumours of a majority of 60 from HQ at 9pm. Pretty down really after all that work and not the answer I was getting on the ground. Was going to pack up and have an early night sleep.
Then Bullingdon Boy announces the exit poll at 10pm and it is grab another beer. Strap in here. This is going to be a bumpy ride. A nights sleep missed on adrenaline and plenty of coffee today.
It's a beautiful evening after, I have baby gold finches and baby robins in the garden. And life is good.
Besides, a good election to lose this one...
Interested. I responded to your comment oh he wasn't a loser. Youve responded telling me why he wasn't but then ended your post with a comment that it was a good election to lose??? Which is it?
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4,039 posts
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Post by kathryn on Jun 10, 2017 7:41:31 GMT
I believe it. It rings true. No one can know it was a lie. I believe it was a lie, but the fact that it was such an easily believable lie is a whole issue unto itself. I believe it was a lie, and that most people know deep down there's no evidence to support it, but it was such an entertaining lie against someone who was disliked by large portions of the population that they just didn't care if it was true or not. There's a phrase journalists use: 'too good to check'. A story that has inherent appeal and that they want to be true, don't want to check it out properly and find out that it's not.
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4,631 posts
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 10, 2017 9:07:16 GMT
No one could say Theresa run a bad election campaign, you had to have a campaign in the first place, they didn't
How does this homophobic DUP sit with Ruth Davidson: Queen of Scots? How will Ken Clarke, Anna Sourby and a host of backbenchers work with this new government, this is the coalition from hell, they won't be able to inact law and any chance of getting any law, they will need to do deals with other parties and this includes Labour, who would want backing for their own laws, no such thing as a free lunch.
This election was meant to strengthen the government and deliever a weaker opposition, the exact opposite has happened.
Ms May hasn't shot herself in the foot, she has blasted her foot off and maybe her leg, she is a dead woman walking with a heavy limp.
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 9:24:18 GMT
we now have CERTAINTY of choas
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2,706 posts
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 10, 2017 9:55:53 GMT
Conservatives would have been better off getting fewer seats than labour, they will have to try to govern whilst infighting and being hopelessly divided on policy such as Brexit, whilst labour can just complain and pick away whilst being able to iron out their own contradictions (presumably and necessarily).
This is what is meant by a good election to lose, the focus is not on the actual loser but the winner. Put another way, it's ana election that the conservatives will come to wish that they had lost.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 10:02:03 GMT
I guess we'll have another election in a few months time at further substantial cost to the taxpayer. I think the Tories will be punished further by the electorate.
History is not going to be kind to Theresa May.
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 10:05:22 GMT
But Theresa May has always believed she is free to do all the Brexit negotiations without reference to the UK Parliament, so she can only be thwarted in that by either a vote of no confidence or a Tory Party leadership coup.
I agree that all the UK Parliament legislation will be chaotic, but she doesn't have any plans for much Parliamentary business anyway.
It's all about doing Brexit her way without consulting anyone, or at least attempting to do that before being shafted by the EU.
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1,103 posts
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Post by mallardo on Jun 10, 2017 11:13:51 GMT
Though I'm not a citizen here and cannot vote I'm vicariously thrilled that my district, Kensington, went for Labour after 3 recounts - by 20 votes! See, not everyone's posh in Kensington.
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1,936 posts
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Post by wickedgrin on Jun 10, 2017 11:16:22 GMT
TM said either "strong and stable" or "a coalition of chaos" - she has delivered a coalition of chaos! It would be hysterically funny if it wasn't so serious. There is a great play in this somewhere, but would it be a farce or a tragedy?
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2,706 posts
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 10, 2017 11:22:06 GMT
But Theresa May has always believed she is free to do all the Brexit negotiations without reference to the UK Parliament, so she can only be thwarted in that by either a vote of no confidence or a Tory Party leadership coup. I agree that all the UK Parliament legislation will be chaotic, but she doesn't have any plans for much Parliamentary business anyway. It's all about doing Brexit her way without consulting anyone, or at least attempting to do that before being shafted by the EU. Leadership coup? Surely not? (watches the news) Hold it, so May is being forced to sack her team otherwise there will be a leadership challenge? Who would have guessed that this was going to fall apart within days? (says nobody)
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716 posts
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Post by theatre-turtle on Jun 10, 2017 11:22:23 GMT
Tories looking more and more out of touch, especially TM. The best thing she could do is step down immediately.
Ruth Davidson is their only hope for the future in my opinion.
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2,452 posts
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Post by theatremadness on Jun 10, 2017 12:39:41 GMT
Pretty brilliant that the Daily Mail now have a Labour MP as their constituency leader.
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Post by samuelwhiskers on Jun 10, 2017 12:44:40 GMT
Not enough to make a difference?? Oh it is just starting I think.
I was hearing rumours of a majority of 60 from HQ at 9pm. Pretty down really after all that work and not the answer I was getting on the ground. Was going to pack up and have an early night sleep.
Then Bullingdon Boy announces the exit poll at 10pm and it is grab another beer. Strap in here. This is going to be a bumpy ride. A nights sleep missed on adrenaline and plenty of coffee today.
It's a beautiful evening after, I have baby gold finches and baby robins in the garden. And life is good.
Besides, a good election to lose this one...
It's a beautiful evening because Labour lost an election and will be on the opposition benches again? The Conservatives are the Government and with the DUP will be able to go at least another 2-3 years without needing to call another General Election as long as the deal which emerges stands firm. If you think the Conservatives will run a campaign as bad as this one next time around I believe you are deluding yourself. There's almost no chance the coalition will stand for 2-3 years. We have an unelected religious extremist far right wing fringe party who received 1.5% of the votes essentially running the country on the say of an unelected PM who has run what is universally acknowledged to be one of the worst election campaigns in history, in an entirely unnecessary vanity election. The coalition will struggle to get any laws passed against such opposition. There will certainly be massive pressure on May to resign. It's highly unlikely May will remain in power much longer, and the coalition is highly unstable. The most realistic option is May's resignation, a new PM (maybe Boris?) and a strong possibility of another election in October. Will they be able to run a better campaign in a matter of months following such a disastrous pasting, while neck-deep with the loathed and feared DUP and in the middle of constant internal fighting and strife? Yes (they could hardly be worse) but will it be a decent campaign? May has zero chance of winning another election, could Boris? Labour certainly will be able to run a more successful campaign going from their gains and the current momentum and popularity, and by using what they learned from this campaign which after all was thrown at them without warning.
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2,452 posts
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Post by theatremadness on Jun 10, 2017 12:51:55 GMT
A friend did some (very, very rough) calculations and divided the 650 seats based on the parties actual vote share. He says some fractions have rounded up and down to get whole seats and there are still some spare so it's not wholly accurate, but it's a more accurate representation of the country than what FPTP seems to be:
Conservative - 276 Labour - 260 Liberal Democrats - 48 SNP - 20 UKIP - 12 Green - 10 DUP - 6 Sinn Fein - 5 Plaid Cymru - 3 Social Democratic & Labour Party - 2 Ulster Unionist Party - 2 Alliance Party - 1
Is the above sufficient evidence to want to change our voting system or would it complicate matters further?
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Post by d'James on Jun 10, 2017 12:56:00 GMT
Tories looking more and more out of touch, especially TM. The best thing she could do is step down immediately. Ruth Davidson is their only hope for the future in my opinion. I would agree with that but I don't think she wants to be an MP.
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2,206 posts
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 10, 2017 13:36:17 GMT
Not enough to make a difference?? Oh it is just starting I think.
I was hearing rumours of a majority of 60 from HQ at 9pm. Pretty down really after all that work and not the answer I was getting on the ground. Was going to pack up and have an early night sleep.
Then Bullingdon Boy announces the exit poll at 10pm and it is grab another beer. Strap in here. This is going to be a bumpy ride. A nights sleep missed on adrenaline and plenty of coffee today.
It's a beautiful evening after, I have baby gold finches and baby robins in the garden. And life is good.
Besides, a good election to lose this one...
Interested. I responded to your comment oh he wasn't a loser. Youve responded telling me why he wasn't but then ended your post with a comment that it was a good election to lose??? Which is it? Did you see my post on the previous page? I'm not typing all that again.
Took an hour to write, if that doesn't explain the context to the comment please do ask again.
Don't think anyone would like to go in to an election to lose, you would need to be a pretty strange cat to do that. And I certainly didn't invest time and effort to do that.
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2,206 posts
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 10, 2017 13:38:57 GMT
Well, I'm obviously thick so could you spell it out please? RIP Blairism. Ta ra kidda. Goodbye tory light blue Labour.
All I have seen on the news in the last 24 hours is ummuna, straw, alexander, balls. Alistair bloody Campbell on QT.
Called that one a bit early. Watch your backs Corbynistas
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 14:00:57 GMT
Though I'm not a citizen here and cannot vote I'm vicariously thrilled that my district, Kensington, went for Labour after 3 recounts - by 20 votes! See, not everyone's posh in Kensington. They all own property of high value and were voting against the Tory manifesto pledge to impose a dementia tax on the sale of the property of the deceased who received social care at home.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:29:59 GMT
I doubt another election
Will be anytime soon
Will piss people off
3 votings within 18 months
And in the middle of brexit negotiations
Is also quite bad
And I don't think MPs have the energy for it
In fact I know they don't
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2017 14:35:18 GMT
I also think it's quite good
May has not sh*t her pants
And is willing to stay
To at least try and sort out the mess
Unlike Cameron
Who called a vote
And then left when it didn't go his way
To have no leader at all
Would make us precariously unstable
In the view of the world
We already look stupid internationally as a nation
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2,706 posts
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 10, 2017 14:49:06 GMT
It is out of their hands, a couple of MPs die off (and they tend to be older) and it's over. Or, as the liberal wing are up in arms against a DUP link, anyone of Soubry, Vaizey, Morgan and many others could follow their conscience and just withhold support.
As for Brexit, likelihood is that it may well be the catalyst in the first place for another election.
Since 2010 there hasn't been an election where a majority large enough for contentious legislation has been gained. Given that may well be the case again, for Brexit we are left with the choice of a National Government as per the thirties (highly unlikely), unstable governmemt pushing a deal through (likely but electoral suicide and liable to be dismissed at a subsequent election) or an all party committee set up to negotiate Brexit (messy, likely impossible to organise and maintain in order to get a mutually acceptable conclusion).
There is no good option because there is no mutually acceptable Brexit. I really have no clue as to how we get out of this mess.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Jun 10, 2017 14:57:41 GMT
I can, however, suggest what we could do if we had a time machine - that is, to do homework on the nature of referendums and set rules which make any result stick.
1) a super majority rather than a simple majority needed, to avoid minor shifts in opinion overturning any original decision. 2) a question that stipulated a replacement rather than leaving some open ended rainbow of possibilities. 3) a proviso that any negotiated deal needed a second referendum.
Cameron did a number of good things but a lack of clarity on this was a derogation of responsibility.
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 15:13:25 GMT
First, the Prime Minister decided to call an election when she heard voices as she walked in Welsh hills.
Then, the Cabinet approved this u-turn.
Finally, the vast majority of the UK Parliament agreed to it, overturning the Fixed Term Act.
They all share responsibility for the present situation.
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 15:19:28 GMT
There is no good option because there is no mutually acceptable Brexit. I really have no clue as to how we get out of this mess. It's really not a problem. The EU is ready for the negotiations, with agreement amongst its member states. Essentially, the UK will have two choices - either to accept the EU proposals (Deal) or to walk away (No Deal). Perhaps we could send Noel Edmonds or The Banker to sort this out?
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Post by Honoured Guest on Jun 10, 2017 15:27:49 GMT
Nick Timothy has a very Russian appearance with that beard. I wonder if he was a Russian mole, diligently working away to destabilise the UK?
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3,927 posts
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Post by Dawnstar on Jun 10, 2017 15:43:03 GMT
See, not everyone's posh in Kensington. Actually, I had no idea the area had changed quite much... Is it the area that has changed? It seems to me more that the voting patterns of the classes has changed, with the urban upper-middle class now more likely to vote Laobour while the working class are more likely to vote Conservative than in the past.
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