4,631 posts
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Brexit
Sept 5, 2019 20:16:01 GMT
Post by Phantom of London on Sept 5, 2019 20:16:01 GMT
so I mentioned earlier why can there not be a grand coalition and had interesting responses. Jeremy Corbin and Jo Swinson can stand aside from being Prime Minister sayiny that when they become Prime Minister it will be by the election box. Have Ken Clarke as the interim Prime Minister with a coalition government cabinet, standing against a no deal Brexit and get us a deal in Brussels.
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Post by jadnoop on Sept 5, 2019 20:31:22 GMT
Because their job is to act in the best interests of the country as a whole, not just a tranche of it. And the best interest of the country as a whole is not to create an entirely avoidable economic catastrophe by claiming people voted for a crash exit that wasn't an option on the ballot paper or a risk properly explained by those advocating leaving the EU. Parliament is entitled to correct mistaken decisions, and this is the biggest mistake in history... If I believed they were simply trying to stop no deal, I might agree with you. If I thought by blocking no deal we could still get a decent agreement with the EU, I might agree with you. That’s not what’s happening here. Some people have a mighty funny idea of democracy, that’s all I can say! The thing is that if you accept that the public voted for Brexit, but didn't vote on a No Deal leave (certainly, my view is that the public was largely being sold on 'we'll get a great deal', but I accept that's not what everyone thinks), then it's similarly true that the precise nature of any deal wasn't part of the referendum either.
Thus, even if all the MPs worked towards the goal of Brexit, we'd still get lots of different ideas of what is or isn't acceptable in any deal. And that probably reflects to some extent differences in what different Brexiteers want. I mean, I suppose as a Remainer it's easy for me to say, but I can imagine that across the general public who voted (and still want) Brexit, there'll be wildly differing views on the things like the Irish border, the likelyhood of Scottish independence, how money might be redistributed, our ongoing agreements with the EU, any final exit payments to the EU and so on.
And that's before we even get to the fact that the EU will have their own interests too.
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Post by Latecomer on Sept 5, 2019 21:24:10 GMT
No-ne has taken the trouble to work out what people actually wanted when they voted Leave. I shall leave aside the fact that there was proven electoral fraud and the overspending (illegal) in the last few days probably made enough difference to the vote to change the result. I have to acknowledge that lots of people just “wanted to leave” but when challenged on this most of the people I have talked to either wanted to “shake things up” or have swallowed the Daily Mail hate rhetoric and wanted someone (preferably another group) to blame for the lack of high wages/public services but I may be wrong.....
We need to go back to the beginning and have public assemblies throughout the country to work out what people want....until we do this will not be settled. And stop calling it Clean Break or No Deal, call it No idea deal.....as if we left with no arrangements we would then just have to negotiate in a panic from a position far weaker as we are hit far harder as a proportion of our economy. It will not be the end of anything....
Personally I think if they offered the deal we have now (opt outs whenever we want of things like Schengen, the Euro, rebate etc) we would love it!!!!
Revoke A50 with promise of proper consultation by people’s assemblies with strict timetable and then we can always resubmit if at a later date we work out what relationship we actually want that is better and will keep Ireland and Northern Ireland safe!
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Post by poster J on Sept 6, 2019 0:17:03 GMT
Some people have a mighty funny idea of democracy, that’s all I can say! And some people care about the future and avoiding chaos and an economic crisis that I will likely spend a great deal of my working life paying taxes and higher prices to resolve. I voted to Remain, I believe passionately in Remain even though I am not blind to the EU's inefficiencies (no institution is perfect, but a framework is workable and malleable whereas nothing is just nothing) and I very much begrudge my future being gambled on a knife edge by people who campaigned on lies and claim legitimacy from a vote where it is crystal clear that many, and possibly a majority, of those who voted and those who did not were fed and blindly believed that misinformation. That I cannot and will not look past. But despite that, I will take leaving with a deal because that is currently the least worst potentially achievable option. And because I have done enough reading and know enough from past studies to understand the depths of trouble that a no deal crash out would bring, without seeing any cogent argument in its favour. The people who have a funny idea about democracy are the people who think that an effective negotiating tactic is to threaten to throw their toys out of the pram and threaten to trigger the outcome which leaves the UK in the worst possible situation. The fact that they actually seem to think that would ever work in any context shows both their lack of intelligence and their arrogant self-importance. They are not my government and they never will be, and as far as I'm concerned they have no legitimacy - their party membership do not speak for me, in fact they speak for less than 1% of the population, that is how wafer thin the current government's mandate actually is.
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Post by vdcni on Sept 6, 2019 5:49:04 GMT
It's also ludicrous to describe leaving without a deal as an end point or getting Brexit over with. Whatever happens we will need to negotiate our future relationship with the EU as they are our biggest trading partners and neighbours. Currently we're doing that with the cushion of EU membership but after no deal we won't have that certainty.
Of course we are in a situation where the government expect us to believe that no deal is a big enough threat to force the EU to concede to our demands but at the same time something we have completely under control.
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Post by d'James on Sept 6, 2019 7:44:34 GMT
Disenfranchising yourself isn’t the answer though. Or spoiling ballot papers. You just leave the decisions with the extremists on all sides who WILL vote come what may. Spoiling a paper isn't disenfranchising. The spoilt papers are shown to the candidates and are recorded as such. It is a legitimate vote the same as all others - it is a means of voting without giving your vote to a particular candidate. I will though always vote as people in the past have fought and died to get me that right. For a few years now I have voted Green which in our electoral system is a total waste of time where I live. But I've voted, even if it gets no notice taken of it. I wonder if all the 'leavers' in the advisory referendum know that feeling. Gets easier to cope with over time. That's the attitude I take, and it is why I go to vote and will spoil, rather than not vote at all, for reasons as above. I get that, but even if over fifty percent of people spoiled their ballots in a particular constituency, it would surely be the unspoiled votes that were counted to determine the result? I’m genuinely asking because if it could actually make a difference then I’d consider doing it.
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Brexit
Sept 6, 2019 11:57:09 GMT
Post by missthelma on Sept 6, 2019 11:57:09 GMT
Is it just me or does Johnson seem rather at a loss at present? Of course it could all be part of the ongoing 'Bumbling Boris, your pal' schtick but he genuinely seems out of sorts and blindsided by the vicissitudes of politics. Now for somebody like Trump who was a political novice that attitude was to be expected but Johnson has been in and around politics for close to three decades so it seems bizarre that he is behaving as he is.
Was his privilege so ingrained that he expected everybody to just do what he said/wanted? Presumably whilst a heavenly choir serenaded. Or as I said before is this all some subterfuge? But he managed to make Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May look competent in comparison which surely can't have been the agenda. But mainly it's the public who seem to be throwing him off kilter.
For years we have been told the bumbling clown act was just that, an act, and underneath beat the heart of a true master of political acumen. So, what do people think is going on?
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Brexit
Sept 6, 2019 12:04:45 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 6, 2019 12:04:45 GMT
To quote Margaret Atwood, The Blind Assassin
“She (He) knows herself (himself) to be at the mercy of events, and she (he) knows by now that events have no mercy.”
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Post by d'James on Sept 6, 2019 12:14:19 GMT
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Post by jadnoop on Sept 6, 2019 12:26:45 GMT
Is it just me or does Johnson seem rather at a loss at present? Of course it could all be part of the ongoing 'Bumbling Boris, your pal' schtick but he genuinely seems out of sorts and blindsided by the vicissitudes of politics. Now for somebody like Trump who was a political novice that attitude was to be expected but Johnson has been in and around politics for close to three decades so it seems bizarre that he is behaving as he is. Was his privilege so ingrained that he expected everybody to just do what he said/wanted? Presumably whilst a heavenly choir serenaded. Or as I said before is this all some subterfuge? But he managed to make Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May look competent in comparison which surely can't have been the agenda. But mainly it's the public who seem to be throwing him off kilter. For years we have been told the bumbling clown act was just that, an act, and underneath beat the heart of a true master of political acumen. So, what do people think is going on? I wonder if it's not simply the slow realisation that his current situation (hated by huge portions of the population, unable to do anything he wanted to, likely to out of the job very soon, and in this bind about stating never to ask for an extension, but with no one to pick up the batton before Oct 31st) is pretty much what he's been working towards for his entire life. This short, painful few weeks will be the pinnacle of his career. I don't really see why anyone who wasn't completely deluded or happy to sacrifice themselves completely to whichver side they believe in would want to be PM right now.
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Brexit
Sept 6, 2019 14:22:31 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 6, 2019 14:22:31 GMT
He certainly looks to Churchill in what might seem to many an irrational way, perhaps rather as the boy or girl in the playground 'bends it like Beckham'.
I suppose there is a chance he has substance to him but he's via Eton - so almost by definition a snake oil salesmen in a very expensive suit. Cameron was the same.
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Post by kathryn on Sept 6, 2019 16:05:28 GMT
Because their job is to act in the best interests of the country as a whole, not just a tranche of it. And the best interest of the country as a whole is not to create an entirely avoidable economic catastrophe by claiming people voted for a crash exit that wasn't an option on the ballot paper or a risk properly explained by those advocating leaving the EU. Parliament is entitled to correct mistaken decisions, and this is the biggest mistake in history... If I believed they were simply trying to stop no deal, I might agree with you. If I thought by blocking no deal we could still get a decent agreement with the EU, I might agree with you. That’s not what’s happening here. Some people have a mighty funny idea of democracy, that’s all I can say! People didn't vote for Brexit in the spirit of wanting to leave the EU, come what may, at the expense of the economy, whatever it takes. All of the pro-Brexit campaigning was predicated on the idea that we'd have more money afterwards - more money for the NHS specifically. People voted for a deal - an advantageous deal, the easiest in history. Now obviously, those campaigns were lying - and anyone who'd done their homework knew they were lying. But a lot of people didn't. So it's the age old question that anyone in a service role faces - do you give the customer what they asked for, even though you know that's terrible, and deal with their inevitable complaints afterwards by saying 'but I gave you what I asked for!' Or do you attempt to get them what they actually want, even though it's not what they asked for? Democracy has to include the ability to change your mind when you get more information, and hold the people you elect to account when they don't keep their promises. The pro-Brexit campaigns made a lot of promises that couldn't be kept.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Sept 6, 2019 16:40:20 GMT
Is it just me or does Johnson seem rather at a loss at present? Of course it could all be part of the ongoing 'Bumbling Boris, your pal' schtick but he genuinely seems out of sorts and blindsided by the vicissitudes of politics. Now for somebody like Trump who was a political novice that attitude was to be expected but Johnson has been in and around politics for close to three decades so it seems bizarre that he is behaving as he is. Was his privilege so ingrained that he expected everybody to just do what he said/wanted? Presumably whilst a heavenly choir serenaded. Or as I said before is this all some subterfuge? But he managed to make Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May look competent in comparison which surely can't have been the agenda. But mainly it's the public who seem to be throwing him off kilter. For years we have been told the bumbling clown act was just that, an act, and underneath beat the heart of a true master of political acumen. So, what do people think is going on? “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”. Some said, ‘it’s just an act, he’ll be different in the job’ about Trump and now Johnson. How, despite all evidence to the contrary, can people be conned so easily?* Confidence in a character whose limited repertoire is exposed brutally by twenty four hour news, quickly dissipates.** * & ** because they rely on people not really paying attention to that news.
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Brexit
Sept 6, 2019 18:29:01 GMT
Post by londonpostie on Sept 6, 2019 18:29:01 GMT
People didn't vote for Brexit in the spirit of wanting to leave the EU, come what may, at the expense of the economy, whatever it takes. All of the pro-Brexit campaigning was predicated on the idea that we'd have more money afterwards - more money for the NHS specifically. People voted for a deal - an advantageous deal, the easiest in history. It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it isn't the case, it never was, and this relentless revisionism is embarrassing to witness.
As well as being factually inaccurate, it denies the basis of populism. After three years of ever-increasing evidence, it's unfortunate to still see this regurgitated.
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Brexit
Sept 6, 2019 18:42:51 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2019 18:42:51 GMT
Some people have a mighty funny idea of democracy, that’s all I can say! And some people care about the future and avoiding chaos and an economic crisis that I will likely spend a great deal of my working life paying taxes and higher prices to resolve. I hate to break it to you, but that’s what’s coming if we get a Labour government anyway! The chances of which are (potentially) increasing by the day. Agree a deal is the best option, but have always thought we need to maintain the leverage of a no deal threat to get one. And act on it if needed. It will be slightly hilarious if May’s deal, moderately tweaked, comes back round again and the bunch of hopeless non-entities actually vote for it this time...
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Sept 6, 2019 18:55:15 GMT
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Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 6, 2019 18:55:15 GMT
My gut feeling is a moderately tweaked Withdrawal Agreement (May Deal) is the likely outcome.
It is the only way that Johnson can achieve the 31st Oct promise and as part of the No-Deal Bill the original will be debated again.
Not sure what his paymasters will think and whether it is enough to pacify the Brexit Party but if we have left before the Election is there a reason for them to exist.
A Deal is in line with the current Democratic process and my only concern was that we would leave without a Deal and would accept this scenario.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Sept 6, 2019 18:58:28 GMT
Leaving with no deal, it will take years and years to get a deal that will still be worse than at present. If we are desperate to get a deal with the US and others quickly we will be taken to the cleaners.
Leaving with May’s deal, all of that applies but (with the backstop) we will have a period so that things don’t get so bad, so quickly.
Leaving but remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market, will have us retain most of the benefits but without any say in them. This would be quick but make us politically weaker. Similar with the Norway style Single Market but not Customs Union option.
Remaining will happen overnight and, the next day, the government can start to govern properly again.
If people want this to stop then neither no deal or May’s deal will do that.
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Post by poster J on Sept 6, 2019 21:48:02 GMT
Agree a deal is the best option, but have always thought we need to maintain the leverage of a no deal threat to get one. What leverage? It's no problem for the EU if we crash out with no deal - they will have us over a barrel for subsequent trade negotiations and they didn't have to back down - aside from some inconvenience in terms of process in the short term, it is win-win for them. I am genuinely interested to understand why you think No Deal is leverage, because I haven't seen anyone give a convincing explanation of that Boris argument yet.
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Post by poster J on Sept 6, 2019 21:53:53 GMT
People didn't vote for Brexit in the spirit of wanting to leave the EU, come what may, at the expense of the economy, whatever it takes. All of the pro-Brexit campaigning was predicated on the idea that we'd have more money afterwards - more money for the NHS specifically. People voted for a deal - an advantageous deal, the easiest in history. It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it isn't the case, it never was, and this relentless revisionism is embarrassing to witness.
As well as being factually inaccurate, it denies the basis of populism. After three years of ever-increasing evidence, it's unfortunate to still see this regurgitated.
What is embarassing to witness is people still trying to deny that Brexit will be an economic disaster at the very least in the short term, if not the long. The Leave campaign certainly did not explain that, so it isn't revisionism in the slightest to say they misled even if you don't agree that they lied (though they clearly did on the bus if nothing else). And that's beside the fact that anyone could have done their own research and easily discovered just how disastrous this was always going to be.
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Post by Phantom of London on Sept 6, 2019 22:09:30 GMT
Brexit has gone Animal Farm.
We have had Corbyn the chicken for not bending to Boris’ will.
Then on the news today we see Johnson with a bull, which pretty sums up Boris Johnson, I allow you to add an expletive.
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 8:13:43 GMT
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Sept 7, 2019 8:13:43 GMT
People didn't vote for Brexit in the spirit of wanting to leave the EU, come what may, at the expense of the economy, whatever it takes. All of the pro-Brexit campaigning was predicated on the idea that we'd have more money afterwards - more money for the NHS specifically. People voted for a deal - an advantageous deal, the easiest in history. It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it isn't the case, it never was, and this relentless revisionism is embarrassing to witness.
As well as being factually inaccurate, it denies the basis of populism. After three years of ever-increasing evidence, it's unfortunate to still see this regurgitated.
Bit revisionist that
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 11:10:06 GMT
Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Sept 7, 2019 11:10:06 GMT
It doesn't matter how often this is repeated, it isn't the case, it never was, and this relentless revisionism is embarrassing to witness.
As well as being factually inaccurate, it denies the basis of populism. After three years of ever-increasing evidence, it's unfortunate to still see this regurgitated.
Bit revisionist that There is a large degree of disagreement as to the basis and character of populism. It’s a somewhat simplistic shorthand term, which is somewhat ironic when it is used to describe those who deal in simplistic shorthand. Personally, I think we should embrace that irony, as the best way to defeat them is to turn their own methods back on them (well, apart from taking out the charismatic figurehead, seeing that relying on such individuals is a particular achilles heel of populism). Going right to the fundamental causes of populism, one aspect that I think is particularly important is that politicians are pushed, by the system they operate in, into making claims that they can do things when they are merely attempting to do something. There is no real discussion about the limitations that exist in having power. It’s part of the essential danger within democracy, whereby complex, interrelated issues are reduced to slogans. The nature of that reality as being in opposition to the simplicity of elections is a difficult one to overcome.
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 12:39:05 GMT
Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 7, 2019 12:39:05 GMT
For those wondering why there are ‘Defend Democracy’ and ‘Stop The Coup’ Demonstrations today despite the opportunity for a General Election.
The reasons as I see it are
1. Prorogation has not been ruled out, we need to ensure this option is not available in the future, we cannot close Parliament for Political gain.
2. The statements by Johnson that he is potentially not going to follow the law and implement a Parliamentary Bill is the destruction of the foundation of Parliamentary Democracy.
These UnDemocratic positions need to be resolved and pressure continued to be applied to ensure these situations cannot be considered in the future, only then can we have General Election.
Once resolved we can move on and introduce a Deal by the end of October or have General Election in November or early December.
A General Election will likely produce another hung Parliament and dependant on the way we vote we will either leave without a Deal or have a second referendum by the end of January. (Brexit Party/Tory Coalition or Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition)
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 12:54:22 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 12:54:22 GMT
For those wondering why there are ‘Defend Democracy’ and ‘Stop The Coup’ Demonstrations today despite the opportunity for a General Election. The reasons as I see it are 1. Prorogation has not been ruled out, we need to ensure this option is not available in the future, we cannot close Parliament for Political gain. 2. The statements by Johnson that he is potentially not going to follow the law and implement a Parliamentary Bill is the destruction of the foundation of Parliamentary Democracy. These UnDemocratic positions need to be resolved and pressure continued to be applied to ensure these situations cannot be considered in the future, only then can we have General Election. Once resolved we can move on and introduce a Deal by the end of October or have General Election in November or early December.A General Election will likely produce another hung Parliament and dependant on the way we vote we will either leave without a Deal or have a second referendum by the end of January. (Brexit Party/Tory Coalition or Labour/Lib Dem/SNP Coalition) Floating around now is the idea that the UK has dicked around for long enough with no real progression with regard to Brexit, as a result Macron and the EU are likely to enforce a 31st October exit. The political 'powers' at the helm currently continue to demonstrate their inability to deal with any real situation and as a result any bargaining power in Trade Deals etc is pretty non-existant now. What do you think the chances are of us ending with a EU enforced no-deal, despite laws passing this side to prevent that?
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Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 7, 2019 13:02:39 GMT
Unlikely, my understanding is the EU Position was garnered before the No-Deal Bill was considered and the Tory defectors only jumped ship when they were confident that the EU would agree to an extension.
This has further angered Cummings and Co as they see themselves as the only ones allowed so speak to the EU conveniently forgetting all Parties have MEP’s
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Post by NeilVHughes on Sept 7, 2019 13:20:30 GMT
As an aside, the report ion the impact of a No-Deal report is known as the Yellowhammer Report.
Not sure who came up with the name but could be an indication of what it contains, not sure if contemptuous or ironic genius.
‘The typical song of the Yellowhammer is often described as sounding a bit like the bird is saying ‘a-little-bit-of-bread-with-no-cheeeese’
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 13:38:37 GMT
Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 13:38:37 GMT
This becomes a bigger joke by the day, all the in fighting, insults etc. No-one will stand up and try to take a lead and get things sorted.
I voted for Brexit and want it done but a no deal could cause more issues so I really want an agreed withdrawal agreement done so we can get out and just get back with day to day politics.
No-one comes out of this week well - The Tories potentially throwing the Father of the House and Churchill's grandson out of the party. Labour who want an election but then they don't, the SNP who want to remain in Europe but take Scotland independent and effectively out of the EU and then back in again. A load of MPs who have defected from their parties and are running around trying to secure a political future elsewhere, a clearly impartial speaker who goodness knows what he'd do if there was another election as regards standing.
The courts seem to being dragged into everything and this could set a dangerous precedent as anything contentious going forward could end up before the courts then you could have MPs using parliamentary privilege to say things that would be liable or in contempt of court etc.
I can understand the opposition MPs not wanting to agree to an election if Boris and co could move the date to after Brexit deadline and with parliament dissolved nothing could be done.
We need an election but the campaign could get very bitter and would be dominated by Brexit which does no parties any real favours. With MPs possibly standing as independents and the Brexit party fielding a lot of candidates the votes in some areas could be totally split and we end up with some strange results. Throw in the likely purge of moderates from both main parties and it could be a really hostile campaign.
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Post by lynette on Sept 7, 2019 16:52:57 GMT
I am sure Soames is an excellent person and politician and loyal etc but the very fact that he is Churchill's grandson is interesting on two counts: that he is a member of a particular family should not matter, his opinions are his own, this is several generations on and nobody else from that family has made a particularly wonderful contribution to British life ( except the Duke of Marlborough well before Winston) and for the same reasons it is quite worrying that he is the grandson of Winston in that here is another example of the ruling class of families, on both sides of the House: the Benns have also created a dynasty every bit as much as anyone from Eton. I know being a doctor tends to run in the family but I personally would like to see this passing down of the governing elite concept to disappear.
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 17:00:27 GMT
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Post by n1david on Sept 7, 2019 17:00:27 GMT
lynette I couldn't agree with you more about 'generations of politicians' on both sides of the House. I think there's a real problem that the amount of scrutiny on politicians now, the possible abuse - not just to them but to friends and family - and the alarming cost of standing for election is greatly minimising the talent pool for our MPs and dissuading a lot of potential strong politicians. (Isabel Hardman's book "Why we get the Wrong Politicians" is great on this). I think the particular focus on Soames with respect to Johnson is that he has repeatedly and cynically used Churchill's name as a personal hero and an inspiration, to the extent of writing a (widely panned) biography of Churchill. I think that's why this has become a particular point of focus.
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Brexit
Sept 7, 2019 17:13:49 GMT
Post by theglenbucklaird on Sept 7, 2019 17:13:49 GMT
This becomes a bigger joke by the day, all the in fighting, insults etc. No-one will stand up and try to take a lead and get things sorted. I voted for Brexit and want it done but a no deal could cause more issues so I really want an agreed withdrawal agreement done so we can get out and just get back with day to day politics. No-one comes out of this week well - The Tories potentially throwing the Father of the House and Churchill's grandson out of the party. Labour who want an election but then they don't, the SNP who want to remain in Europe but take Scotland independent and effectively out of the EU and then back in again. A load of MPs who have defected from their parties and are running around trying to secure a political future elsewhere, a clearly impartial speaker who goodness knows what he'd do if there was another election as regards standing. The courts seem to being dragged into everything and this could set a dangerous precedent as anything contentious going forward could end up before the courts then you could have MPs using parliamentary privilege to say things that would be liable or in contempt of court etc. I can understand the opposition MPs not wanting to agree to an election if Boris and co could move the date to after Brexit deadline and with parliament dissolved nothing could be done. We need an election but the campaign could get very bitter and would be dominated by Brexit which does no parties any real favours. With MPs possibly standing as independents and the Brexit party fielding a lot of candidates the votes in some areas could be totally split and we end up with some strange results. Throw in the likely purge of moderates from both main parties and it could be a really hostile campaign. Not according to Pat
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