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Post by lynette on Nov 22, 2020 20:18:26 GMT
Either there is serious danger or there is not. It doesn’t go away on December 23/24/25 just because... I’m sorry but I think we should hold on a bit longer.
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Post by kathryn on Nov 22, 2020 20:28:27 GMT
Better to miss seeing each other in person this Christmas than be missing someone for every Christmas thereafter.
But I can see how it's going to be very difficult to stop parents from seeing all of their grown-up children and their families over the Christmas period. Particularly if they are living alone. I was just talking to a friend whose dad is in a locked down nursing home - confined to his room with no visitors because they have an outbreak - and whose mum is living on her own. There's just no way her and her brothers are not going to see their mother over Christmas. They're not going to leave her on her own, and not being able to see their dad is hard enough, there's no way they are pulling straws to see who gets to see their mum.
The reality is that a lot of people will find ways around the household mixing rules that they think are perfectly reasonable and safe, and once people have gotten in the habit of substituting their own judgement for the rules maintaining adherence will just get harder.
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5,709 posts
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Post by lynette on Nov 22, 2020 20:38:24 GMT
Fast reliable tests. Would have saved all this agony.
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Post by NeilVHughes on Nov 22, 2020 20:52:53 GMT
At the moment looking to book somewhere over from the 24th to 26th to get out of the flat for a few days, Hotels are taking bookings and just finalising where to go but will leave booking until the week before.
If there are only limited controls on booking hotels this could be a way round some of the constraints if affordable.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2020 23:04:40 GMT
FWIW - Dr Anthony Fauci is brilliant and someone I listen to. If he is going to tell me that even after a vaccine I can't hug my (also vaccinated) family and friends, then at that point I will stop listening to him.
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Post by sfsusan on Nov 22, 2020 23:09:16 GMT
There's not a chance people are going to do that after the vaccine is rolled out. I will. A) why not hedge my bets? B) the vaccine isn't 100% efficacious, so there's still some risk C) those same measures also reduce the chance of getting flu
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Post by kathryn on Nov 22, 2020 23:57:25 GMT
FWIW - Dr Anthony Fauci is brilliant and someone I listen to. If he is going to tell me that even after a vaccine I can't hug my (also vaccinated) family and friends, then at that point I will stop listening to him. You know, he is the expert here. He's spent his whole career in public health. He's not saying anything for the fun of it, he's not making money out of it, he's saying it to protect you, your friends, and your family. Do you think he is just anti-hugs? If he says after you've had your vaccination, you shouldn't go around hugging people, there's a good reason for that. (Probably the fact that it'll take two vaccinations over a 6 week period for you to actually be protected, and given how staggered across different groups the immunisation rollout will be, there's going to be a period where everyone is at different stages of the process. Everyone hugging is going to lead to illness and deaths even among people who have been vaccinated, and prolong the pandemic.)
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Post by londonpostie on Nov 23, 2020 6:02:31 GMT
Either there is serious danger or there is not. It doesn’t go away on December 23/24/25 just because... I’m sorry but I think we should hold on a bit longer. Indeed. It's not a clinicial decision it's not an economic decision it's purely short-term politics avoiding the obv. Scrooge-type headlines.
As always, keep an eye on what Johnson's father does becasue it won't be what his son says is fine for everyone else.
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Post by londonpostie on Nov 23, 2020 9:04:05 GMT
Well, Oxford/AstraZeneca will do just fine for me: 20K participated in the trial, not for profit/no share price to pump, up to 90% effective with the second dose. Merry Christmas
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Post by lichtie on Nov 23, 2020 9:21:32 GMT
Not quite right - up to 90% effective after the second dose if the first was a half-dose. The headline 70% is two equal strength doses. Quite what the margin of error on the half dose trial is I wouldn't like to say since we're still talking small numbers here (only about 140 in total contracted the virus, with just over a hundred of those on the placebo).
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Post by londonpostie on Nov 23, 2020 9:26:30 GMT
I think you'll find I was exactly right. You wanted to add more info.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2020 14:29:21 GMT
If he is going to tell me that even after a vaccine I can't hug my (also vaccinated) family and friends, then at that point I will stop listening to him. You know, he is the expert here. He's spent his whole career in public health. He's not saying anything for the fun of it, he's not making money out of it, he's saying it to protect you, your friends, and your family. Do you think he is just anti-hugs? If he says after you've had your vaccination, you shouldn't go around hugging people, there's a good reason for that. (Probably the fact that it'll take two vaccinations over a 6 week period for you to actually be protected, and given how staggered across different groups the immunisation rollout will be, there's going to be a period where everyone is at different stages of the process. Everyone hugging is going to lead to illness and deaths even among people who have been vaccinated, and prolong the pandemic.) Did you read my post? I said I would hug my family and friends AFTER all involved had been vaccinated (and you can assume it would be with their consent as well). I will be in one of the last groups vaccinated, so I'm talking about it being probably close to 2 years since I last hugged a friend by the time I actually get to do it. So no, I won't be waiting once all my family and friends are as protected as they can be. And you can bet at least 90% of people will think the same, because everyone's patience has a limit and once they have been given a vaccine people will undoubtedly relax, or stop listening. Illness and death is a fact of life, and I'm not sure how any likelihood that more people who have vaccinated will die by hugging other vaccinated people than they would if they didn't hug anyone is any different to any other vaccine in existence, which doesn't require stopping close contact. The whole point of the vaccine is that is will permit the close contact that is currently banned. It won't eradicate the virus entirely, nothing will, so if you think that the world is going to continue social distancing forever then you should think again, as that simply won't happen. Humans (or most at least) thrive on physical contact and many will not want to continue living without it for more than the extremely long period it has already been. They will therefore either break the rules, or take the other way out, which is the problem many on this thread seem determined to sweep under the carpet. Perhaps because many don't live alone and therefore don't understand the damage that a lack of physical contact can do.
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4,156 posts
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Post by kathryn on Nov 23, 2020 14:35:22 GMT
I don't know where this idea that anyone wants social distancing to continue forever has come from. No-one wants that.
Any guidelines around the continuation of social distancing will be to ensure public heath and safety in the interim period while the vaccination programme is rolling out.
You know how doctors always tell you to complete the course when they prescribe antibiotics? It's like that. You follow the instructions to make sure the treatment is effective and does not have adverse effects in the long term.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2020 15:00:50 GMT
I don't know where this idea that anyone wants social distancing to continue forever has come from. No-one wants that. Any guidelines around the continuation of social distancing will be to ensure public heath and safety in the interim period while the vaccination programme is rolling out. You know how doctors always tell you to complete the course when they prescribe antibiotics? It's like that. You follow the instructions to make sure the treatment is effective and does not have adverse effects in the long term. We are talking at cross-purposes, as I am referring to the period after vaccination (knowing full well the only people to receive it after me will be those in their teens and 20s who aren't in any higher priority group, so I am well down the list). If he is saying you cannot have close contact AFTER vaccinations, then I ask again how you expect people will adhere to that, because that would be indefinite social distancing!
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4,156 posts
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Post by kathryn on Nov 23, 2020 15:27:55 GMT
I don't know where this idea that anyone wants social distancing to continue forever has come from. No-one wants that. Any guidelines around the continuation of social distancing will be to ensure public heath and safety in the interim period while the vaccination programme is rolling out. You know how doctors always tell you to complete the course when they prescribe antibiotics? It's like that. You follow the instructions to make sure the treatment is effective and does not have adverse effects in the long term. We are talking at cross-purposes, as I am referring to the period after vaccination (knowing full well the only people to receive it after me will be those in their teens and 20s who aren't in any higher priority group, so I am well down the list). If he is saying you cannot have close contact AFTER vaccinations, then I ask again how you expect people will adhere to that, because that would be indefinite social distancing! Again, where on earth have you got the idea that he is saying that?! No-one is suggesting that social distancing will need to continue indefinitely.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2020 17:37:58 GMT
We are talking at cross-purposes, as I am referring to the period after vaccination (knowing full well the only people to receive it after me will be those in their teens and 20s who aren't in any higher priority group, so I am well down the list). If he is saying you cannot have close contact AFTER vaccinations, then I ask again how you expect people will adhere to that, because that would be indefinite social distancing! Again, where on earth have you got the idea that he is saying that?! No-one is suggesting that social distancing will need to continue indefinitely. I said IF that is essentially what he is suggesting. But regardless, it is a fundamental issue as to when social distancing will be relaxed, as I think people have unrealistic expectations of how much the majority of the general public will tolerate it once the vulnerable groups are vaccinated. That disconnect between reality and the science is dangerous, as we have already seen the government's messaging fail to deal with what people are actually concerned about, and so you get widespread public outcry about stories like the woman who got arrested for picking up her mother out of a care home to take her home. And equally why you get so many illegal gatherings in homes and parks. If the government is going to ask people to keep distancing once the vaccinations have started, even temporarily, they need to have convincing messaging about why that is necessary, because as the minute all the reporting is about the vulnerable being protected, and so it will be inevitable that many people will see the trigger for relaxing as being when the vulnerable are vaccinated, not everyone.
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 23, 2020 21:14:18 GMT
I feel so sorry for retail workers. As though Christmas isn't already the worst time of the year for them, now Marks and Spencer is open until midnight Christmas Eve and Primark might be going 24 hours!
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Post by theatreian on Nov 23, 2020 23:25:14 GMT
I feel so sorry for retail workers Yes from one who had worked in Retail for almost all my working life(recently retired now) , retail has had the rough end of it with little praise really. At the best of times retail is a tough hard business. Covid has seen poorly paid workers still having to work really hard through the pandemic(particularly food and essential). These Christmas opening hours and very tough, but in some ways understandable to try and get some lost trade back. To anyone who does work in retail, you have my respect. I finished my career in charity retail and they have had it tough too, losing valuable weeks trade and when open being inundated with donations due to the previous closures. Also having to quarantine donations in a limited storage areas. Well done to you all.
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 24, 2020 18:29:34 GMT
The rules, such as they are, for Christmas:
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2020 19:08:31 GMT
And those three households are Boris Johnson and his two best mates.
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Post by sfsusan on Nov 24, 2020 22:10:39 GMT
If the government is going to ask people to keep distancing once the vaccinations have started, even temporarily, they need to have convincing messaging about why that is necessary Apparently the virus takes 6 weeks or so (and two jabs) to become effective, so yes, distancing will be necessary for a time even after you (and those you wish to hug) have started the process. As for the community, I would think distancing in public would be necessary until some high percentage of the population have completed the vaccination sequence. On a different note, I read today that those taking the vaccine should be prepared to feel mild COVID symptoms after getting the second shot.
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Post by londonpostie on Nov 25, 2020 7:11:11 GMT
Regarding te Oxford vaccine, I was trying to understand what '90% effective' means and came across this in the BBC report. It seemed pretty reassuring, although it presumably doesn't include the vulnerable or elderly: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635
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4,996 posts
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Post by Someone in a tree on Nov 25, 2020 8:50:10 GMT
Regarding te Oxford vaccine, I was trying to understand what '90% effective' means and came across this in the BBC report. It seemed pretty reassuring, although it presumably doesn't include the vulnerable or elderly: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635Plus its got a higher success rate compared to the flu jab. Plus it's much cheaper compared to the American ones - Go Oxford!
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Post by theatreian on Nov 25, 2020 10:33:54 GMT
And it can be stores in a normal fridge so far easier to process and deal with. This is especially important for poorer countries with less infrastructure. I read that India which has massive cases would benefit from the easier procedures for giving the oxford vaccine.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2020 10:34:05 GMT
Regarding te Oxford vaccine, I was trying to understand what '90% effective' means and came across this in the BBC report. It seemed pretty reassuring, although it presumably doesn't include the vulnerable or elderly: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635Plus its got a higher success rate compared to the flu jab. Plus it's much cheaper compared to the American ones - Go Oxford! Plus it's far easier to transport than the other vaccines, which is important for much of the world.
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