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Post by talkingheads on Nov 14, 2020 15:52:39 GMT
We've only been in lockdown for a week. Some of what we're seeing is the effect of people's behaviour in October. The vast majority of cases take around a week to be symptomatic so, in the last week we are seeing the post half term effect, with schools back (and all that entails), possibly followed by a spike from those who couldn’t help but have one last night out. Looking at the very weak effect on measures such as mobility that we are seeing, it is questionable that this level of measures is enough to get R under one for any significant period. I've certainly seen no signs of lockdown. Roads busier than ever, long queues at coffee shops and takeaways. |
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Post by londonpostie on Nov 17, 2020 14:32:20 GMT
Independent research and reasonable charting - looks like the US operations have created a two-week advantage over Oxford/Astra. We might hear about that quite a bit more as they push the price/value opportunity:
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 19, 2020 10:01:41 GMT
So what do we think the Government's response is eventually going to be regarding Christmas? Lots of reports saying we get five days off at Christmas 'in exchange' for a month lockdown in January, as though it's some kind of treat. Because they just don't have the nerve to actually put proper precautions in place in case they are accused of 'ruining Christmas'. The other point of course being that a lot of people will ignore restrictions whatever they are so it's an impossible situation to police.
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Post by Mark on Nov 19, 2020 10:05:52 GMT
So what do we think the Government's response is eventually going to be regarding Christmas? Lots of reports saying we get five days off at Christmas 'in exchange' for a month lockdown in January, as though it's some kind of treat. Because they just don't have the nerve to actually put proper precautions in place in case they are accused of 'ruining Christmas'. The other point of course being that a lot of people will ignore restrictions whatever they are so it's an impossible situation to police. It’s the most ridiculous idea imaginable. Another month of lockdown isn’t worth 5 days relaxation over Christmas, how are business meant to survive if we keep turning on and off the tap? How are people meant to plan anything for the new year? Call my biased but I’m working the 5 days over Christmas - do I then get to have my get togethers over New Year? And what about all those families who wanted (and let’s be honest, probably did anyway) to get together over Diwali? Either it’s needed or it’s not. They’re basically saying if they ease restrictions for 5 days over Xmas you can see your family but then people will die because of it anyway. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2020 11:11:32 GMT
So what do we think the Government's response is eventually going to be regarding Christmas? Lots of reports saying we get five days off at Christmas 'in exchange' for a month lockdown in January, as though it's some kind of treat. Because they just don't have the nerve to actually put proper precautions in place in case they are accused of 'ruining Christmas'. The other point of course being that a lot of people will ignore restrictions whatever they are so it's an impossible situation to police. It needs a hard hitting advertising campaign (yes, I know, they are incapable of it, with all the weak messaging so far). Something about ‘giving’ would be good. ‘Christmas is a time for giving but this year is special. You can give your grandparents a funeral or a stay in hospital, you can give your siblings long covid and their kids can go into school and give their friends an illness which they can pass on to their parents! This Christmas, you can give life, you can give a future, all you have to do is stay home’. Many will have seen this but this set of German adverts are great. The essence being that you will be a hero if you do nothing. |
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Post by Someone in a tree on Nov 19, 2020 11:19:25 GMT
So what do we think the Government's response is eventually going to be regarding Christmas? Lots of reports saying we get five days off at Christmas 'in exchange' for a month lockdown in January, as though it's some kind of treat. Because they just don't have the nerve to actually put proper precautions in place in case they are accused of 'ruining Christmas'. The other point of course being that a lot of people will ignore restrictions whatever they are so it's an impossible situation to police. It’s the most ridiculous idea imaginable. Another month of lockdown isn’t worth 5 days relaxation over Christmas, how are business meant to survive if we keep turning on and off the tap? How are people meant to plan anything for the new year? Call my biased but I’m working the 5 days over Christmas - do I then get to have my get togethers over New Year? And what about all those families who wanted (and let’s be honest, probably did anyway) to get together over Diwali? Either it’s needed or it’s not. They’re basically saying if they ease restrictions for 5 days over Xmas you can see your family but then people will die because of it anyway. I'm with you on this, as a key worker I'll be working over Jesus day so when is my break. I guess I'll get it with the with the Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims. January lockdown down though, epic chance to save money and put towards the biggest holiday ever when ever that maybe... |
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Post by theatreian on Nov 19, 2020 11:30:05 GMT
Another month of lockdown isn’t worth 5 days relaxation over Christmas The scientists this morning seem to agree and I have to agree too. Surely after all we have been through this year and being so close with a vaccine people would forego a normal Christmas just this once if it meant we would forego another lockdown. Everyone has made sacrifices this year and it does seem mad when the end is hopefully in sight to let it slip. As long as no one is on their own on Christmas day then surely having a more limited Christmas is more sensible than having a blowout where the consequences would be more severe. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2020 11:46:13 GMT
As long as no one is on their own on Christmas day. And therein lies the reason why however much you want them, restrictions over Christmas will be of limited effect. I need to take a bus, two Tubes, a mainline train and a plane to avoid being alone and make it to family for Christmas. None of my friends where I live will be around. And so I will be doing that unless my flight is cancelled, because after how s**t this year has been I will not be spending Christmas alone. Call me selfish if you want, but I've complied with the rules so far, I'm not going to be forced into even more loneliness and isolation because some idiots refuse to comply with the existing rules. |
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 19, 2020 11:49:19 GMT
Another month of lockdown isn’t worth 5 days relaxation over Christmas The scientists this morning seem to agree and I have to agree too. Surely after all we have been through this year and being so close with a vaccine people would forego a normal Christmas just this once if it meant we would forego another lockdown. Everyone has made sacrifices this year and it does seem mad when the end is hopefully in sight to let it slip. As long as no one is on their own on Christmas day then surely having a more limited Christmas is more sensible than having a blowout where the consequences would be more severe. I think the issue there is that lots of people will in fact be alone on Christmas Day. I'm not saying I think people should be mixing, in fact I think it's ludicrous to have this lockdown then say we can all have five days off as though the virus doesn't exist only to go back into lockdown to try and mitigate it, but the fact is that people will mix whatever the Government tells them and I suppose they have to say they relaxed the restrictions to make it look like they are being proactive when in fact it is the most reactive thing they could do. |
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Post by theatreian on Nov 19, 2020 11:54:23 GMT
I agree , whatever happens it isn't easy. I suppose depending on the advice we have to make our own decisions, but try and limit contact as much as possible. No one wants to pass on the virus to a relative or friend so will still need to be careful.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2020 13:45:36 GMT
Surely after all we have been through this year and being so close with a vaccine people would forego a normal Christmas just this once if it meant we would forego another lockdown. You'd hope so, but it's remarkably easy for people to understand the bigger picture while simultaneously behaving in a way that's in complete contradiction to it, as if what they personally do is isolated from what everyone else is doing. Everyone sees themselves as the special case that won't matter. |
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 19, 2020 16:08:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2020 16:25:03 GMT
I don't care what the rules are. I'm going to sit at home with my many Christmas puddings and eat them until I resemble one.
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Post by lynette on Nov 19, 2020 18:03:16 GMT
I thought I was alone in thinking that a relaxed Christmas as it were is not worth the subsequent lockdown, the economic fallout, the misery of January inside most of the day et etc. Galleries and the hospitality industry have worked like crazy to be covid viable and most have done very well. To face a winter close down which it will in effect be, is surely unthinkable, But I see others agree with me here.
All of the religious holidays this year have been compromised and mostly we have coped because communities have adapted and worked very hard to be inclusive and to use the internet until it glows with sweat to make a festival something we can hang on to. I feel that if the Church and I suppose here I mean volunteers and underpaid clergy, will continue this stretch, this amazing effort to keep us all going, then Christmas can ‘work’ for most people. I know some people will be alone. It has always been, to our shame, the same. We can make an extra effort, locally based, to try to alleviate this. I know local organisations will work their socks off, people of different faiths in hospitals will as , usual allow, their Christian colleagues to be at home if they wish to be so. If necessarily we can all stand outside , on our doorsteps and sing carols, socially distanced. What I am trying to say is that we can manage a decent Christmas for those who want it.
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Post by clair on Nov 19, 2020 19:18:16 GMT
Everyone will have their own ideas as to what Christmas means to them and yes, one missed Christmas isn't a major deal for most people. That said I'm in a bubble with parents and brother (he still lives there) as I'm single - my Dad's cousin is due to spend it with us, thus making two households. He's alone as his wife died three years ago next week, they had no kids, his brother and family live in Denmark - it will be a very lonely time for him if he can't drive over to join us. We'll follow whatever the rules are and have been doing so throughout but I do worry for his mental health especially as he's still grieving for his wife.
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Post by Phantom of London on Nov 19, 2020 21:04:08 GMT
Christmas is just one day on the calendar.
In the US they’re having north of 150k cases a day, with Thanksgiving this weekend, I expect a big jump. Because of the lag between infection and symptoms, we will see the results from this in 2-3 weeks time. So a good guide for how we can have our Christmas. We have to ask ourselves is Christmas worth it, this year - especially if you have family members that are elderly or/and vulnerable.
I realise how hard this is for people who livelihood is affected by Covid and then peoples’ way of life. However with the brilliant news this week, that 3 vaccines will be available. 2021 will be a big turning point.
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Post by christya on Nov 20, 2020 12:01:13 GMT
I don't think it will make a lot of difference what the rules are at Christmas. Which is probably the real reason why they'll be relaxed. So many people would break the rules that doing anything about it becomes mostly unenforceable, and you've then normalised breaking the rules. Even with some time 'off', those people who are going to be sensible will do it anyway, and those who are holding larger gatherings were probably going to do that anyway, rules or no rules.
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 21, 2020 17:21:05 GMT
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Post by Phantom of London on Nov 21, 2020 19:06:35 GMT
FWIW - Dr Anthony Fauci is brilliant and someone I listen to.
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Post by christya on Nov 21, 2020 21:34:36 GMT
There's not a chance people are going to do that after the vaccine is rolled out.
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 22, 2020 10:24:48 GMT
There we are then. Confirmed (via leak, as that is how major public health messages are delivered these days). A week off from Covid at Christmas. I hope somebody's given Covid a bell:
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Post by NeilVHughes on Nov 22, 2020 10:36:11 GMT
Now where can I find a derelict warehouse, millions of young people ready to Party, all bets are off, a generation who have a year of casual experimentation to catch up on.
Likely to be some tinkering around bubbles as a free for all would be high risk and encourage the above.
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Post by theatreian on Nov 22, 2020 10:36:28 GMT
A week off from Covid at Christmas. Having read the article and others I don't think that is a fair representation. Until we see the precise details I will reserve judgement. Personally I would rather see restrictions loosened as little as possible, but realistically what is the chance of people adhering to these rules having seen the non adherence that has already occurred meaning the infection rate has increased or stayed stubbornly high in some areas. It looks like the tier system will be strengthened and hopefully with the gains most areas have made in lockdown then people will be sensible over Christmas and not go too mad! |
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 22, 2020 10:42:28 GMT
A week off from Covid at Christmas. Having read the article and others I don't think that is a fair representation. Until we see the precise details I will reserve judgement. Personally I would rather see restrictions loosened as little as possible, but realistically what is the chance of people adhering to these rules having seen the non adherence that has already occurred meaning the infection rate has increased or stayed stubbornly high in some areas. It looks like the tier system will be strengthened and hopefully with the gains most areas have made in lockdown then people will be sensible over Christmas and not go too mad! Oh I agree. I loathe the Government to the core but even I have to concede that whatever restrictions they impose they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. |
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Post by theatreian on Nov 22, 2020 10:56:28 GMT
I just remember hearing a lady on the radio saying 'I would rather everyone be here for next Christmas'. With the coming vaccinations I think this is a great attitude to take. It would be truly awful if the present you gave to a friend or loved one was covid and possibly death .
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