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Post by clair on Nov 5, 2020 16:45:25 GMT
The weird thing is I can plan months or years ahead when it comes to things like theatre and holidays! it's only things like winter and haircuts that fox me. That's because theatre is essential - winter coats and haircuts we can survive without if necessary! |
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Post by theatreian on Nov 9, 2020 15:52:35 GMT
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Nov 9, 2020 17:16:42 GMT
People are saying this is a huge breakthrough. Mass vaccinations and out of this nightmare by next spring?
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Post by kathryn on Nov 9, 2020 18:19:55 GMT
People are saying this is a huge breakthrough. Mass vaccinations and out of this nightmare by next spring? Hmm, the vaccinations take 6 weeks to be effective, so to be out of it by spring (end of March) you'd have to get the first vaccination by mid-Feb. About 3 months' time. I'd be surprised if they manage to get it through all the safety and regulatory processes, and have it ready to be given to a significant proportion of the population by then - bearing in mind that it's looking like we're going to get Brexit disruption to logistical operations in January, and given that this government has not exactly covered itself in glory in its Covid-19 organisational response thus far. Summer seems more likely. But with any luck I'm being pessimistic. |
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Post by Jan on Nov 9, 2020 18:41:24 GMT
But with any luck I'm being pessimistic. They've over-stated the bad news so now they're going to over-sate the good news. |
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Nov 9, 2020 18:41:38 GMT
I’m reminded of why I stopped reading/moderating this thread.
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 9, 2020 19:21:09 GMT
It's a huge step forward. But given it really is in the earliest stages to be honest I'd rather they didn't make a huge thing of it until it's ready to be rolled out.
All it will do is make people
complacent when we come out of lockdown, thinking they can relax because of the vaccine.
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Post by Jan on Nov 9, 2020 20:29:29 GMT
It's a huge step forward. But given it really is in the earliest stages to be honest I'd rather they didn't make a huge thing of it until it's ready to be rolled out. All it will do is make people omplacent when we come out of lockdown, thinking they can relax because of the vaccine. Will it ? So how come it hasn’t made *you* complacent ? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2020 21:02:46 GMT
Meanwhile the BBC is reporting that a woman named Corona has been receiving abuse over her name, because apparently the statement "No one could be that stupid" is never true.
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Post by lynette on Nov 9, 2020 21:08:22 GMT
If this vaccine is ready even at the back end of next year it will be a remarkable achievement. Absolutely amazing. As amazing as going to the moon. What we must try to make happen is that it is rolled out to all, yes, the medics and key workers first but I mean to all the nations, the poor sods who are at the moment almost lost in the misery of it all, not just us lot in the UK, the EU and the US. I expect China and the Far East will get their version and be very efficient at roiling it out. We must be patient and generous and bloody grateful for the sheer grit of the science workers in getting it to us.
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Post by jojo on Nov 9, 2020 22:01:05 GMT
It's a huge step forward. But given it really is in the earliest stages to be honest I'd rather they didn't make a huge thing of it until it's ready to be rolled out. All it will do is make people omplacent when we come out of lockdown, thinking they can relax because of the vaccine. I'm not a behavioural scientist, so it's pure guess-work on my part, but I wonder if knowing there is a small light at the end of the tunnel might encourage people to take this lock-down seriously, knowing that if it's done properly, it might be the last one. The idea that we have to learn to live with a certain level of mortality is less acceptable if mass vaccination is a few months away. I've read the UK has baggsied either 30million or 40 million doses in the first go, which means 15-20 million people vaccinated. Not enough to give us herd immunity, but if well targeted, it would be a big step towards it. The theory is that as this vaccine is considered effective (various caveats still apply) then the other vaccines in development which work on a similar basis, should also work. Some may be more or less effective than others, and this one has some issues in that it must be kept at very low temperatures, so distribution will come with a new set of challenges. I agree with lynette that I hope the distribution will be fair both within the UK and around the world. I don't think they've yet published a breakdown of effectiveness by age group, so it will be interesting to see that. Many vaccines become less effective as the age of the patient increases, so someone may need to do some sums to work out whether it's best to vaccinate the people who will react best to the vaccine, or the people who react worst to C19. I expect they'll start with health care workers, and then those in care homes. Even if it's only 50% effective for care home residents, they are at much more risk of getting ill and passing it on, than people in their sixties who live in their own home. |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Nov 10, 2020 8:45:39 GMT
It's a huge step forward. But given it really is in the earliest stages to be honest I'd rather they didn't make a huge thing of it until it's ready to be rolled out. All it will do is make people omplacent when we come out of lockdown, thinking they can relax because of the vaccine. I'm not a behavioural scientist, so it's pure guess-work on my part, but I wonder if knowing there is a small light at the end of the tunnel might encourage people to take this lock-down seriously, knowing that if it's done properly, it might be the last one. The idea that we have to learn to live with a certain level of mortality is less acceptable if mass vaccination is a few months away. I've read the UK has baggsied either 30million or 40 million doses in the first go, which means 15-20 million people vaccinated. Not enough to give us herd immunity, but if well targeted, it would be a big step towards it. The theory is that as this vaccine is considered effective (various caveats still apply) then the other vaccines in development which work on a similar basis, should also work. Some may be more or less effective than others, and this one has some issues in that it must be kept at very low temperatures, so distribution will come with a new set of challenges. I agree with lynette that I hope the distribution will be fair both within the UK and around the world. I don't think they've yet published a breakdown of effectiveness by age group, so it will be interesting to see that. Many vaccines become less effective as the age of the patient increases, so someone may need to do some sums to work out whether it's best to vaccinate the people who will react best to the vaccine, or the people who react worst to C19. I expect they'll start with health care workers, and then those in care homes. Even if it's only 50% effective for care home residents, they are at much more risk of getting ill and passing it on, than people in their sixties who live in their own home. My chemicals company friend said to me yesterday 'We had a talk from the Editor of the HSJ on Friday. Even with a vaccine he said, restrictions will be in place until at least next September at the earliest, even then physical distancing and masks won't go away. It will take up to 2 years for a vaccine to give the required immunity for a full return to normal. There will be about 10 vaccines. People need to realise that things will not just happen overnight. The 2 vaccines that will be first, Pfizer and AZ are looking positive but there are lots of concerns. Logistics, efficacy over time, plus they are both 2 injections so double the workload. The 50million doses the UK have invested in from Pfizer will not all be ready at once. It is very positive but don't expect this to change things in the short term. Testing will have a quicker impact on getting back some of our enjoyment in life.' |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Nov 10, 2020 8:53:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2020 11:30:37 GMT
My chemicals company friend said to me yesterday 'We had a talk from the Editor of the HSJ on Friday. Even with a vaccine he said, restrictions will be in place until at least next September at the earliest, even then physical distancing and masks won't go away. It will take up to 2 years for a vaccine to give the required immunity for a full return to normal. That's what I'm expecting too.
From some of the comments in this forum ("So this thing is OK but this other thing isn't that's so stupid") it seems that many people think of everything as an on/off switch where something is either safe or dangerous, whereas the situation is actually that we have a large number of measures that each reduce the risk a little but in combination they reduce the overall risk a lot. A vaccine that reduces your risk of infection by 90% given to 70% of the population should reduce the infection rate by 63%, which is probably not enough. But if people wear masks when meeting others indoors that's a further 50% (for an overall 82% reduction), distancing where practical may be another 50% (for an overall 91%), and at that point the infection rate will be low enough that we can afford to remove a lot of the other restrictions without having to worry about getting back into exponential growth.
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Post by Mark on Nov 10, 2020 11:34:26 GMT
12 days ago, I flew to Copenhagen for a work trip. I stayed the night, came back to the UK, and then did another shuttle flight London - Copenhagen and back, the day after. Since then, I've been to Turkey for the night, working two full flights & Buenos Aires for the night, working two much quieter flights.
On my days off, I went into London on the Tube, went to Madame Tussauds, Museum of London, London Eye, and for dinner.
I have been told I need to Isolate until this Friday now due to the new "Mink" strain of Covid. Not by the government, who have all my contact details from filling out a form every single flight I do, but from work.
Really, think the horse has bolted on that one should I have been "minked" on my bus journey to and from the airport...
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Post by theatreian on Nov 10, 2020 13:38:13 GMT
With the vaccine when it becomes available with those most vulnerable being targeted first then the overall risk therefore goes down more. If those over 50 can be given the vaccine then the risk to others is much less so even if the actual number of vaccines available is not enough fore the whole population, so long as there is enough to cover those most vulnerable , that is a great head start.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2020 14:05:46 GMT
There are stories going round that your car insurance will be invalid if you make a non-essential journey under lockdown.
It's complete nonsense, of course. Your insurance is governed by the contract you agreed to when you paid for it and nobody can make arbitrary changes to it without notice and further agreement. But it makes me wonder why stories like this get started. There's no possible source that could have been misinterpreted this way, so somebody must have made a deliberate decision to scare people by creating an outright lie. What's the point? Did someone think "Lockdown isn't enough of a problem so I'll be an arsehole about it"? The answer is yes.
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Post by fiyero on Nov 11, 2020 23:18:05 GMT
There are stories going round that your car insurance will be invalid if you make a non-essential journey under lockdown. It's complete nonsense, of course. Your insurance is governed by the contract you agreed to when you paid for it and nobody can make arbitrary changes to it without notice and further agreement. But it makes me wonder why stories like this get started. There's no possible source that could have been misinterpreted this way, so somebody must have made a deliberate decision to scare people by creating an outright lie. What's the point? Did someone think "Lockdown isn't enough of a problem so I'll be an arsehole about it"? The answer is yes. I used to work in insurance (before moving on to the sexier world of Local Government Pensions) and what probably happened is a shred of truth snowballed then got shared with out context and snowballed a bit more. If it was illegal to drive on a non-essential journey (points on your licence type illegal) then it could be argued that you aren't insured. But you would still have 3rd party cover as the insurer cannot opt out of that! (don't quote me, when I left insurance I forgot as much as I could) Its a danger of social media that it is so easy to share stuff without a source and people believe it and then twist it a bit further. |
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Post by dontdreamit on Nov 12, 2020 6:44:04 GMT
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Post by clair on Nov 12, 2020 10:21:58 GMT
The only problem with the £5 test would be what happens if you can't get one on that day - I would happily pay the £5 through the theatre as part of my ticket price if they were to have some available, with an agreement that if you test positive your ticket is moved to another date, you pay another £5 for the test on the new date. That could well be too complicated though and I'd hate to put any extra burden on theatres who have enough of a struggle to open up at the moment anyway
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Post by theatreian on Nov 12, 2020 10:34:57 GMT
Yes I see that issue, particularly with most events tickets are purchased in advance. It's not as easy as first thought!
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Post by talkingheads on Nov 13, 2020 14:37:58 GMT
Being fit, healthy and at a lower risk of death does not mean you can’t catch the virus or continue to spread it. So enjoy your theatre going whilst it lasts, because frankly your post stinks of ego and self entitlement. Im sorry that you have such a backward way of thinking. Theatres reopen in three weeks. They aren't going to stop people going who aren't vaccinated immediately - there won't be enough buyers because it will be a slow process. Time to let people get on with their lives. People like you would see everyone locked up until they were vaccinated. It's not going to happen. And now that the ticketmaster story has been deemed "fake news", I highly doubt vaccination will ever be a requirement to go into a venue. I hate to be a downer but there were over 30,000 new cases yesterday. I honestly can't see theatres reopening let alone places like pubs, as much as I want them to. Safety needs to come before the economy. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2020 15:33:43 GMT
I hate to be a downer but there were over 30,000 new cases yesterday. I honestly can't see theatres reopening let alone places like pubs, as much as I want them to. Safety needs to come before the economy. We've only been in lockdown for a week. Some of what we're seeing is the effect of people's behaviour in October. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2020 12:22:59 GMT
I hate to be a downer but there were over 30,000 new cases yesterday. I honestly can't see theatres reopening let alone places like pubs, as much as I want them to. Safety needs to come before the economy. We've only been in lockdown for a week. Some of what we're seeing is the effect of people's behaviour in October. The vast majority of cases take around a week to be symptomatic so, in the last week we are seeing the post half term effect, with schools back (and all that entails), possibly followed by a spike from those who couldn’t help but have one last night out. Looking at the very weak effect on measures such as mobility that we are seeing, it is questionable that this level of measures is enough to get R under one for any significant period. |
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Post by david on Nov 14, 2020 15:48:07 GMT
I'm not quite sure about this new COVID test that is available -  |
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