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Post by xanady on May 15, 2020 19:52:00 GMT
Main BBC news headline on web-site is that the ‘R’ rate has now crept up again near to ‘1’......at this level the virus could spread rapidly.We should still be in complete lockdown imo.Short term pain=long term gain.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 20:30:56 GMT
Main BBC news headline on web-site is that the ‘R’ rate has now crept up again near to ‘1’ It also says that the rise appears to be driven by the spread in care homes and hospitals. If the average across most of the country is well below 1 and only above 1 in restricted areas then there's less to be worried about. |
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Post by bengal73 on May 15, 2020 22:30:15 GMT
It's important to add that the headline is based on ONS figures from 2 weeks ago. The figure in 2 weeks time is far more important
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Post by xanady on May 16, 2020 8:41:51 GMT
^Yeah,The Matthew...I read it all...basically if you are old,unhealthy or indeed poor you are potentially more at risk with this virus.
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Post by Jan on May 16, 2020 9:55:25 GMT
In Germany, who locked down only a week before UK, you can already travel anywhere you want and stay overnight in a hotel or guest house. So why aren't we learning from them ?
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Post by olliebean on May 16, 2020 10:37:17 GMT
In Germany, who locked down only a week before UK, you can already travel anywhere you want and stay overnight in a hotel or guest house. So why aren't we learning from them ? If we had locked down a week earlier, we would now be in a much better position. But we missed our chance to do that, so I'm not sure what we're supposed to be learning now from a country that did. |
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Post by NeilVHughes on May 16, 2020 11:05:15 GMT
UK
Lockdown imposed: March 24
Deaths on lockdown: 422
Germany
Lockdown imposed: March 22
Deaths on lockdown: 67
Using deaths at lockdown as an indicator of infected population Germany could be assumed to have significantly less infected people in the general population at the time of lockdown and therefore would expect to see R drop quicker.
(caveat Germany seem to have a significant lower mortality rate than the U.K. so not a black and white comparison and their greater number of tests would provide a larger and therefore more accurate sample to gauge the infection rate in the general population to back up an early easing of restrictions)
Personally believe the government don’t want to appear lagging EU Countries as this would highlight their deficiencies and are therefore not following other Countries length of lockdown and we should really have remained at the Stay at Hime stage for another couple of weeks.
We cannot have those pesky Europeans enjoying their freedom whilst we are still cooped up at home and god forbid their economies recovering quicker as we transition to leaving the EU at the end of the year.
Using Italy as the comparator closest to the U.K. position
Italy
Lockdown imposed: March 9 (eased 4th May)
Deaths on lockdown: 366
therefore we would have expected the U.K. lockdown requirements to be eased around the 19th May.
We most probably locked down a week too late and started easing restrictions a week too early. Only time will tell on the impact of these two weeks but would not be surprised if we are the first to experience a second wave.
Overall there is no issue with the governments easing roadmap only the timing.
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Post by HereForTheatre on May 16, 2020 11:26:52 GMT
When comparing the UK and Germany can we just acknowledge the fact that Germany is a much bigger and more spread out country than the UK, it's therefor also much less dense, which will have a big impact on infection rates and then deaths.
I have family there, i have been there, and so i have no problem working out why it would be harder for the virus to grow as quickly as in the UK. I really feel like even if they took the same steps at the same time as we did, they would still be recording much lower figures than us. I might also add that they record differently than us, or they did, because a lot of deaths early on were not recorded as Covid deaths if they had serious underlying conditions that could potentially have been the cause of death instead where as Covid has always been recorded here no matter the patients history.
I can tell you it's a myth if people believe that Germany have gotten everything right and that everyone there thinks the government are doing a great job and people feel safe. They haven't and they don't.
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Post by londonpostie on May 16, 2020 11:28:35 GMT
Neil - again with your maths. Haven't we been here before ..
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Post by NeilVHughes on May 16, 2020 11:41:41 GMT
londonpostie I know cannot help it, always have to demonstrate why I come up with my opinions in this case about the timing for easing restrictions as it challenges my assumptions and allows people to at least see where I am coming from even if they disagree. I’m back in my box again and about to go out on my bike for a few hours.
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Post by londonpostie on May 16, 2020 11:56:16 GMT
Light breeze and sunny periods;tThe weather looks perfect.
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Post by vdcni on May 16, 2020 12:03:08 GMT
Is Germany that much less dense? The most recent number I've seen is 267 to 233 so actually Germany is the most comparable European country to the UK.
I'm not sure I've seen anyone claim Germany handled it perfectly but then if you don't have an argument but want to blindly support the government I guess you have to make things up.
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Post by londonpostie on May 16, 2020 12:21:29 GMT
Where I grew up in Sussex, a 40K population town/district, has had 3 deaths from COVID. The district is bigger than London in size. My two local hospitals in south London - Kings and St Thomas' = approaching 250 COVID deaths each. Using countries as a base metric is not pointless but it's limited. Middle classes in all societies have been shielded. Working families in multi-generational households have suffered horribly, the UK-specific policy on care homes should result in a human rights case at The Hague, there is no even close equivalent to London in Europe - Berlin, for example, is 1/3 the population size, metropolitan public transport was key in the early stages, etc. Even Uber didn't have a day of restriction.
London has more in common with New York on most relevant measures, and East London in particular with one or two regions of northern Italy in terms of multi-generational households.
Possibly helpful to consider no journalist on mainstream news has a clue, and that the discussions are trivial to the point of being worthless. IMO.
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Post by joem on May 16, 2020 15:05:40 GMT
Deaths have been recorded differently in different countries so beware of easy comparisons. I think if everyone was using similar statistical methods you would find that the differences in infections and the death rate would not be that significant. The fact that the bulk of those infected are asymptomatic means that even in the older age groups (over 90) fewer than 50% of those infected may have had any symptoms.
Even ignoring the fact that the majority of those infected have not been diagnosed, the mortality rate for under 50's in Germany, for example, is below 0.01%. In Spain the mortality rate for infected under 70's is 0.122%. These are jus some examples. All of which goes to show that this virus, whilst very contagious, is very far from meriting comparisons with the Black Death or the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. Protecting the elderly and those with serious health conditions in combination with strict hygiene procedures and some social distancing would probably have been effective as the lockdown.
But even if some of this has the benefit of hindsight, at some point a semblance of normality has to return otherwise there's no money to fund the NHS or anything else for that matter. Permanent lockdown, or recurring lockdowns, is not an option for this or any other country. Individuals who have been traumatised by the climate of fear will need help to get back to normal or may choose to isolate themselves but most people cannot afford this.
In this context "stay home" becomes totally redundant except for a very few and "be alert" is likely (hopefully) to fizzle out during the summer.
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Post by londonpostie on May 16, 2020 15:30:01 GMT
I suspect the calculation is between how long the UK can retain credibility in the financial markets (to borrow) and current excess NHS capacity.
They will move the levers towards stimulating the economy / maxing out NHS capacity and then, when the NHS is almost maxed out, ease the lever back towards semi-lockdown.
In that way we will lurch, like a petrol car full of diesel, towards an antibody test and vaccine.
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Post by BurlyBeaR on May 16, 2020 15:41:38 GMT
I think the suggestion that any democratically elected government, left or right, would deliberately hospitalise people and put the NHS at risk during a pandemic in order to control the economy is irrational.
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Post by londonpostie on May 16, 2020 16:02:25 GMT
What did you think herd immunity meant.
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Post by NeilVHughes on May 16, 2020 16:05:40 GMT
Agree that it is political suicide to deliberately harm the electorate or even to be seen to.
The difficulty is balancing economy and health and which one even if it is a 52% / 48% bias in favour of one it influences how you read the data and one I am glad I am just an observer as both scenarios lead to what can be perceived as unnecessary deaths.
It is why I found the front pages making teachers who want to return to work as ‘heroes’ which implies there is a risk therefore negating what they are trying to achieve.
The government has made two mistakes in my opinion:
Moving elderly to care homes without testing, I can understand the logic of this as there is a greater risk of infection in a Hospital where there are known cases to an environment where it is believed there are none, was it deliberate, unlikely, only short sightedness with good intentions.
The initial lateness in lockdown which has lead to a longer tail, was it deliberate, unlikely, at the time the 52% / 48% split was most probably more in favour of the economy and the belief most people would get mild symptoms and only people with ‘underlying conditions’ needed to isolate.
We have to find and WILL find a way through this, we can see it in other Countries, we just need to be a little more patient as we catch up.
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Post by BurlyBeaR on May 16, 2020 16:15:25 GMT
What did you think herd immunity meant. I believe it meant letting those who were not going to be at serious risk of hospitalisation/death getting the virus, developing immunity and therefore taking themselves out of the infection equation. |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2020 16:24:55 GMT
Apols if this is the wrong thread, but some people may be relieved to hear that toilets in all major London train stations appear to be open. Walking is now a lot less fraught with anxiety!
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Post by BurlyBeaR on May 16, 2020 16:36:04 GMT
Apols if this is the wrong thread, but some people may be relieved to hear that toilets in all major London train stations appear to be open. Walking is now a lot less fraught with anxiety! If we say “stay alert to your nearest station if you get taken short” we’re still 100% on topic 🙂 |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on May 16, 2020 19:16:28 GMT
Just been out to the garden and 4 doors down group of people out in their garden drinking and I know most of them dont live there. That's the 3rd time in a week. Grass? |
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Post by theglenbucklaird on May 16, 2020 19:18:10 GMT
In Germany, who locked down only a week before UK, you can already travel anywhere you want and stay overnight in a hotel or guest house. So why aren't we learning from them ? Thought we weren't allowed comparing to other countries anymore?  |
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Post by impossibleprincess73 on May 16, 2020 23:52:46 GMT
I suspect it won't work like that, not least because of the difficulty in enforcing a hard border around the 32 boroughs, but it does seem that very serious consideration is being given to a multi-speed lifting of lockdown throughout England. I mean we're still in lockdown up here in Scotland and wee Nicola is a like a red rag to a bull anytime someone mentions Boris' 'Stay Alert' slogan.  . She is determined to do things on her own timescale and regardless of what people think about her politics at least she is being firm and confident in her approach to releasing the lockdown, unlike Boris. |
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