1,863 posts
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Brexit
Nov 10, 2018 17:48:11 GMT
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Post by NeilVHughes on Nov 10, 2018 17:48:11 GMT
Working for a mult-National company it is the incompetence and lack of clarity that is the issue.
The two major Parties have agreed with the will of the people why is it we are no way near a deal. (because they know the consequences)
We do not know what is going on and unable to plan.
We make Medical Devices that have a significant impact on our Customers, (primarily young cancer sufferers) come March I may have to have tough conversations with Surgeons around the World telling them to either plan additional Chemo cycles or at worst amputations as we figure out how to get the product they have ordered to them whilst their Patients condition deteriorates.
Once gone these Customers will be gone, the Surgeons duty is to their patients and they want simple reliable supply especially with custom patient specific items made to order to extremely tight lead times.
As the previous Poster said we did OK outside the EU, which we could again but not overnight, the impact of this 4% (how many of us when flipping a coin usually after the first say best of 3) will potentially take generations to return to where we are now and foresee exporters at a disadvantage for many years to come.
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 0:16:01 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 0:16:01 GMT
Well no one thought that the Leavers would win the Referendum and no planning had been done, David Cameron quit and went off to make his fortune.
We trade goods to other countries outside of the EU and have done for years, EU countries trade with America etc, just look to follow those rules. The referendum was 27 months plus ago all sides have had time to prepare.
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Post by NeilVHughes on Nov 11, 2018 0:32:08 GMT
‘EU countries trade with America etc, just look to follow those rules’
Usually takes 3 to 5 years for FDA approvals to allow Medical Devices to be cleared for shipment into the USA.
Currently the MHRA is a recognised body within the EU, after March we do not know who will co-ordinate clearance and the Regulatory framework to ship Medical Devices into the EU.
To ship ex EU we also need Department of Commerce paperwork which has to be applied for, at the moment there is no evidence of additional resources to meet the potential significant increase in demand.
Once we lose access to the Free Market by definition we have additional obstacles to ship which require additional resources and investment which many companies do not have, can see what we make being transferred to one of the European plants if the investment required is higher than the cost of compliance.
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Post by Roxie on Nov 11, 2018 1:41:25 GMT
I voted for Brexit and I believe in it, there was an establishment campaign to keep us in like how there was one to undermine Trump and Corbyn in the last two US and UK elections. All three failed. We were a country long before the EU came along and will be long afterwards. The people voted to leave and it should be respected. If the result had gone the other way would the leavers have been up in arms like the remoaners are. We put more money into the EU than we get out, we'll get our fishing waters back. If Scotland doesn't like it then they can have another referendum and leave UK and we'll be shut of that money pit. First of all. Your use of the term ‘remoaners’ indicates you are the type of person to denegrate anyone who has a different opinion to you. Ie narrow minded. Second of all. We don’t put more money into the EU than we get out. Do some research. The whole leave campaign was based on lies. If you’re cool with increased tariffs, job losses, increased difficulties going abroad, food and fuel shortages, and price increases, crack on. But hey, at least you’ll have your country back and Johnny Foreigner isn’t gonna come over and steal your job! (Or clean your office, or look after you in hospital, or serve you in restaurants) Brexit is a sh*t show and if we crash out of the EU in March with no deal, EVERYONE in this country is going to suffer, no matter how you voted. love, a Remoaner x
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 1:47:43 GMT
If the result had gone the other way would the leavers have been up in arms like the remoaners are. If Scotland doesn't like it then they can have another referendum and leave UK and we'll be shut of that money pit. The leavers have been 'up in arms' for over 40 years during which they never stopped moaning, so yes it's pretty likely they'd have carried on. Scotland doesn't like it, but no they can't have another referendum because ironically they've been told by Westminster they can't, so will have to stomach being dragged into a brexit they strongly voted against as a nation. By the way, your 'money pit' comment is a frequently stated misleading oversimplification. Funding allocation among the UK regions is a complex picture muddied by the Treasury's representation of the figures, which is often siezed on by unionists and Albaphobes to make skewed distorted claims like yours.
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 2:04:38 GMT
Brexit is a sh*t show and if we crash out of the EU in March with no deal, EVERYONE in this country is going to suffer, no matter how you voted. love, a Remoaner x ....including millions of people who came here decades ago from other EU nations to live and work, and who made their homes here, contributed to society, fell in love, raised children, and who in the event of a no-deal brexit face the prospect of losing their status overnight. As it is they have already had 2 and a half years of anxiety and uncertainty and even with a deal, have to contemplate paying for the privilege of applying to remain here. 'Applying' bringing with it all the implications that applications aren't always accepted. Oh and, of course, they weren't allowed to vote, so weren't given any say over their own future status in the UK, along with all the UK citizens resident in the rest of the EU who will be significantly affected especially by a no-deal brexit. That there are those who seem comfortable with the idea we might do this to milions of people is deeply saddening, and on its own highlights the unreason and lack of compassion that brexit has exposed. I've had this discussion with brexiters who are very open about their belief that brexit must happen at literally ANY cost, regardless of its impact, no matter how impoverished it might make us, which they accept might happen, but they don't care about that.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 6:34:10 GMT
We trade goods to other countries outside of the EU and have done for years, EU countries trade with America etc, just look to follow those rules. You don't trade with countries. You form trade agreements with countries. You trade with companies within those countries.
Not long ago I was reading of a specialist company that has most of its trade with the EU and that will be facing crippling additional charges once customs tariffs start applying. The usual glib answer is "They'll be able to trade with other countries", but as always the devil is in the details. They'll be permitted to trade with other countries, yes, but who will they sell to? They don't have any customers outside the EU, and all potential customers already have their own suppliers and have contracts tying them to those suppliers for five to ten years. The number of potential customers out there who are available immediately is precisely zero. And even when some potential customers do become available over the next few years and put their contracts out to tender the UK company will be one of many companies bidding for the right to be their supplier.
So it's not a matter of trading with other countries. It's a matter of struggling on while losing money in the hope that there might be a chance — only a chance, mind — of picking up new trading opportunities from other countries a few years down the road. And it's not even a good chance, because those potential customers will know that UK companies are struggling and are more likely to fail than suppliers from elsewhere, so any UK bidder will be in a disadvantageous position relative to their rivals right from the start.
As yet I've not heard one single Leaver propose any solution to this problem, or even acknowledge that such a problem exists. They all act as though come the day we leave the EU everyone will switch over to trading elsewhere in an instant, like when Sweden switched from driving on one side of the road to the other. Sure, we can trade with other countries in the end. But what do we do in the meantime?
That's not a rhetorical question. If the UK is to survive this we need actual workable answers, and we need them in the next couple of months. Waving your arms around and hoping for the best is an appropriate strategy for falling off a cliff but it's not the basis for an economic recovery.
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4,156 posts
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 8:50:38 GMT
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Post by kathryn on Nov 11, 2018 8:50:38 GMT
Most companies simply can’t weather losing a chunk of revenue for months at a time. It doesn’t matter to them if they were to get double the revenue from the change in a year’s time - they’ll have gone bust by then. Cash flow is everything.
This degree of uncertainty is already depressing our economy, is the truth, because businesses have had to contingency plan for no-deal brexit instead of investing in their business. Even if they manage to come out with the best possible solution tomorrow, it has already been a colossal waste.
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2,761 posts
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Post by n1david on Nov 11, 2018 9:02:23 GMT
I voted for Brexit and I believe in it, there was an establishment campaign to keep us in like how there was one to undermine Trump and Corbyn in the last two US and UK elections. All three failed. Oh yes, Prime Minister Corbyn agrees with you. That establishment campaign swept him to victory. We only have such men-of-the-people as Jacob Rees Mogg and Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to thank for this. Thank God they showed the Establishment what for.
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3,040 posts
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 9:25:00 GMT
Post by crowblack on Nov 11, 2018 9:25:00 GMT
Question - if Scotland had voted to leave the UK a few years back, would the EU have allowed it? Spain would surely have blocked Scotland from becoming an EU member in its own right. And if Scotland tries again now, what?
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 9:34:02 GMT
Question - if Scotland had voted to leave the UK a few years back, would the EU have allowed it? Spain would surely have blocked Scotland from becoming an EU member in its own right. And if Scotland tries again now, what? The Spanish government has certainly made it clear it will veto any move to accept an independent Scotland as an EU member.
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999 posts
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 9:46:32 GMT
We trade goods to other countries outside of the EU and have done for years, EU countries trade with America etc, just look to follow those rules. You don't trade with countries. You form trade agreements with countries. You trade with companies within those countries.
Not long ago I was reading of a specialist company that has most of its trade with the EU and that will be facing crippling additional charges once customs tariffs start applying. The usual glib answer is "They'll be able to trade with other countries", but as always the devil is in the details. They'll be permitted to trade with other countries, yes, but who will they sell to? They don't have any customers outside the EU, and all potential customers already have their own suppliers and have contracts tying them to those suppliers for five to ten years. The number of potential customers out there who are available immediately is precisely zero. And even when some potential customers do become available over the next few years and put their contracts out to tender the UK company will be one of many companies bidding for the right to be their supplier.
So it's not a matter of trading with other countries. It's a matter of struggling on while losing money in the hope that there might be a chance — only a chance, mind — of picking up new trading opportunities from other countries a few years down the road. And it's not even a good chance, because those potential customers will know that UK companies are struggling and are more likely to fail than suppliers from elsewhere, so any UK bidder will be in a disadvantageous position relative to their rivals right from the start.
As yet I've not heard one single Leaver propose any solution to this problem, or even acknowledge that such a problem exists. They all act as though come the day we leave the EU everyone will switch over to trading elsewhere in an instant, like when Sweden switched from driving on one side of the road to the other. Sure, we can trade with other countries in the end. But what do we do in the meantime?
That's not a rhetorical question. If the UK is to survive this we need actual workable answers, and we need them in the next couple of months. Waving your arms around and hoping for the best is an appropriate strategy for falling off a cliff but it's not the basis for an economic recovery.
I echo everything you said. It underlines how, certainly for most of the brexiters I've spoken with or whose comments I've read, brexit is more an ideology, a belief system like a religion, than a practical real-life solution to anything in particular. This is emphasised by their lack of interest in or knowledge of any of the pertinent details, as typified by the earlier "we'll just trade with other countries, what's the problem?" comments. Ditto, "we can just walk away." "Don't bother paying the divorce bill, see how they like that." When in fact it's not a divorce bill, it's a set of legal financial obligations. If we renege on that, our financial reputation and standing will be badly tarnished and our credit rating will plummet. Yes, that'll facilitate all this booming trade we're apparently going to be doing, won't it.
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Post by n1david on Nov 11, 2018 9:53:27 GMT
I echo everything you said. It would underlines how, certainly for most of the brexiters I've spoken with or whose comments I've read, brexit is more an ideology, a belief system like a religion, than a practical real-life solution to anything in particular. This is emphasised by their lack of interest in or knowledge of any of the pertinent details, as typified by the earlier "we'll just trade with other countries, what's the problem?" comments. To take one very clear example, I have yet to hear any Brexiter offer a practical solution to the Irish border, and how we square the circle of keeping an open border with Ireland when we are not in the same Customs Union as them. Brexiter MPs offer up the boilerplate "technology solutions" - without explaining what they are, how they will be agreed with the EU, how they will be paid for and how quickly they can be implemented. (We've got four and a half months) That's my touchpoint - explain your Irish border solution and, unless you can actually explain to me in practical terms how this will work, you're following an idea and not a plan.
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999 posts
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 10:21:22 GMT
I echo everything you said. It would underlines how, certainly for most of the brexiters I've spoken with or whose comments I've read, brexit is more an ideology, a belief system like a religion, than a practical real-life solution to anything in particular. This is emphasised by their lack of interest in or knowledge of any of the pertinent details, as typified by the earlier "we'll just trade with other countries, what's the problem?" comments. To take one very clear example, I have yet to hear any Brexiter offer a practical solution to the Irish border, and how we square the circle of keeping an open border with Ireland when we are not in the same Customs Union as them. Brexiter MPs offer up the boilerplate "technology solutions" - without explaining what they are, how they will be agreed with the EU, how they will be paid for and how quickly they can be implemented. (We've got four and a half months) That's my touchpoint - explain your Irish border solution and, unless you can actually explain to me in practical terms how this will work, you're following an idea and not a plan. Amid a clutch of major unresolved issues that collectively make my knees shake, this is possibly the biggest for me. The technology you refer to hasn't even been invented yet as far as I know. Meanwhile, there's about 3300 hours to go... Another question I've repeatedly asked brexiters, and received no answer to, is how in tangible practical terms will brexit help the poorest and most vulnerable people in the UK? All I've ever got in reply is silence and tumbleweed, except one or two who've said "Why should I answer you?"
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 12:47:44 GMT
During the referendum I was going on about a couple of things in particular, the potential breaukup of the UK (and the Ireland situation in particular) and the issue of trade. Not a single person who expressed support for leave was interested and the usual ‘it will all be fine’ mantra was the only reply, followed by ‘immigrants’ and ‘EU laws’ as a retort. Too difficult to comprehend for a few maybe but most voted leave knowing that there would be a breakup of the UK and a trading disaster. They have no excuse about not knowing or understanding. They wanted this chaos and they’ve got what they wanted.
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4,156 posts
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 14:12:53 GMT
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Post by kathryn on Nov 11, 2018 14:12:53 GMT
I keep telling myself that actually falling off the cliff is *so* politically unacceptable that they will *have* to buckle under and agree to a deal to avoid it - but it does scare me that there are people capable of blocking it who won’t get the blame, and so won’t face political consequences for doing so, and are ideologically committed to principles that are incompatible to any NI solution that has been proposed thus far.
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Post by Backdrifter on Nov 11, 2018 14:13:40 GMT
They have no excuse about not knowing or understanding. In fact, they're generally affronted by the notion they didn't know what they were voting for, so we have to assume they did indeed realise what they were voting us into. But the thing is, if we are drenched in a tsunami of effluent as a result, it will be everyone else's fault but their own. It's already started - the 'remoaner government' and the EU are already being blamed for everything that has gone and will go wrong. Remain voters generally are blamed for the lack of progress and all the bad stuff that will likely happen. In a couple of discussions I've asked how I, as a remain voter, can possibly be 'to blame' and have been told it's because I'm "talking the country down" and I'm "not getting behind brexit." I really had no idea I had that much power. But again, it goes back to this religion thing - just believe, have faith and it will all be fine.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 14:45:14 GMT
I've been told I need to "Believe in Britain", but I don't see how that is going to help. My opinion isn't going to change a thing. The only opinions that matter are those of people who (a) run foreign companies that might choose to trade with us, or (b) have billions of dollars/euros/whatever to invest and might choose to invest it here. I could believe in Britain as much as I liked, but unless I suddenly become a multibillionaire that belief isn't going to mean squat.
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Post by n1david on Nov 11, 2018 15:04:45 GMT
What is also annoying is the number of Brexiters blaming the EU for being difficult negotiators - the fact is that the EU is treaty-based, and it can't just start changing its rules without the consent of all its members. (Which we quite liked when we were a member of the group and could grant or withhold our consent)
Some of us said before the referendum that the negotiations would be difficult, and that it wouldn't be trivial to extricate ourselves from the EU, and that there would be no obligation on the EU to cut us an attractive deal, and that was why Brexit was inherently risky. But no, we were told that if we voted for Brexit that Mercedes and BMW would be beating down Merkl's door to get a trade deal immediately, and that it would be the "easiest deal in history".
Guess what, the negotiations are difficult, and it isn't trivial, and the EU aren't breaking their treaties to sign a deal with us, but this is somehow them being obstructive, and hence the reason why Brexit is failing. But that's not because Brexit is inherently a bad idea, it's the EU's fault.
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Post by sf on Nov 11, 2018 17:24:17 GMT
What is also annoying is the number of Brexiters blaming the EU for being difficult negotiators - the fact is that the EU is treaty-based, and it can't just start changing its rules without the consent of all its members. The reason for that, of course, is that the Leave side has consistently failed to grasp the simple fact that this is not a negotiation. The EU is a treaty-based organisation, the single market and the customs union only function if all participants follow all the rules, and we have chosen to leave (well, I didn't, but that's the road the country is on at the moment). It's not a case of "bullying" by Brussels; there is nothing to negotiate. There is simply a sliding scale: the amount of access we'll get depends on how many of the rules we're prepared to follow. The rules are not going to change simply because Liam Fox would like them to, or because unscrupulous politicians sold voters a fantasy package that bears no resemblance whatsoever to what is going to be possible in the real world. This was LOUDLY obvious before the vote. It's been loudly obvious ever since. No amount of wishful thinking will make it go away. And since there is also no credible solution to the Irish border that doesn't involve full membership in the single market and the customs union, all Mrs. May achieved in setting out her red lines in her ridiculous Mansion House speech was to box herself into a corner.
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Post by sf on Nov 11, 2018 17:28:46 GMT
Question - if Scotland had voted to leave the UK a few years back, would the EU have allowed it? Spain would surely have blocked Scotland from becoming an EU member in its own right. And if Scotland tries again now, what?
In the days after the referendum, Nicola Sturgeon chose her words very carefully. When she talked about possible independence for Scotland, she talked about membership in the single market and the customs union rather than full membership of the EU.
The Spanish government, I think, has since said that it would not veto an independent Scotland's application to join the EU - but it didn't say that until several months after the referendum.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 17:35:33 GMT
I blame Noel Edmonds.
Bear with me.
I hadn’t watched the afternoon TV staple ‘Deal or no Deal’ until I visited my parents and they watched it every day. I couldn’t get my head around the idea of the show - ‘so there is no element of skill! It’s just luck?’ ‘So why do they believe that they can magically overcome the natural outcome of random failure?’ ‘Why do they gamble away what they have had the good luck to win, in the hope of some fantasy outcome, given the long odds of success?. I still can’t understand what made it into a ratings hit, with its unholy alliance of ‘greed ‘and that relentless nemesis known as ‘reality’. Was it the idea of beating fate in a random universe? Give me games of skill any day, you are in control of those (or at least you can try and improve through practice).
Anyway, even without the audience’s constant exhortations for the contestants to go for ‘no deal’ (seriously, the whole setup was like an ERG fantasy), I thought it revealed a lot about the country’s psyche here and now. It even had as its hate figure a banker thus cementing a populist political message for the whole unsettling farrago.
So I blame Noel Edmonds.
Just a bit.
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 18:02:03 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 18:02:03 GMT
I voted for Brexit and I believe in it, there was an establishment campaign to keep us in like how there was one to undermine Trump and Corbyn in the last two US and UK elections. All three failed. Oh yes, Prime Minister Corbyn agrees with you. That establishment campaign swept him to victory. We only have such men-of-the-people as Jacob Rees Mogg and Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to thank for this. Thank God they showed the Establishment what for. It was widely believed that Labour would be wiped out and have an election result as bad as in 1983 but under Jeremy Corbyn they got 40% of the vote up 9.6% from 2015.
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Post by sf on Nov 11, 2018 18:20:04 GMT
To be fair, some days that's my default for nearly everything.
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Brexit
Nov 11, 2018 18:21:59 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2018 18:21:59 GMT
I blame Noel Edmonds. Bear with me. I hadn’t watched the afternoon TV staple ‘Deal or no Deal’ until I visited my parents and they watched it every day. I couldn’t get my head around the idea of the show - ‘so there is no element of skill! It’s just luck?’ ‘So why do they believe that they can magically overcome the natural outcome of random failure?’ ‘Why do they gamble away what they have had the good luck to win, in the hope of some fantasy outcome, given the long odds of success?. I still can’t understand what made it into a ratings hit, with its unholy alliance of ‘greed ‘and that relentless nemesis known as ‘reality’. Was it the idea of beating fate in a random universe? Give me games of skill any day, you are in control of those (or at least you can try and improve through practice). Anyway, even without the audience’s constant exhortations for the contestants to go for ‘no deal’ (seriously, the whole setup was like an ERG fantasy), I thought it revealed a lot about the country’s psyche here and now. It even had as its hate figure a banker thus cementing a populist political message for the whole unsettling farrago. So I blame Noel Edmonds. Just a bit.
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