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Post by londonpostie on Oct 29, 2019 20:39:36 GMT
I've got Handel's Messiah booked that night at the RFH. It'll take the 350 voices and the Philharmonia Orchestra to drown out the rest of the nonsense.
Anyway; we're on.
Early take: I'd love to see the internal party polling that convinced Corbyn to go for it becasue it's a steep climb back to even parity. I can see it - taking lumps out the Lib Dems, plus the Green New Deal promising what the Greens could never deliver - but it's a job.
Especially given Johnson's Magic Money Tree promises and the deal he must strike with Farage. Feels close - but I can't see anything else than reverting to the two-party system, plus the usual bits and pieces. Single figures for the Lib Dems.
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Post by NeilVHughes on Oct 29, 2019 21:01:32 GMT
With you londonpostie likely to revert to a two party system. Labour will need to focus on policies, at the moment all the Conservative Party policies are only getting things back to where they were before the austerity programme, the cuts in public services, higher costs of living and wage stagnation etc of the last 10 years. Conservatives will need to focus on Brexit which will be difficult as once we get into policies they are weaker and easier to counter, you cannot keep shouting Brexit, Brexit, Brexit for 6 weeks hoping it deflects the impact of austerity on people’s lives. Lib Dems are a single policy party and have the same issue as the Conservatives how do you keep a Brexit focus for 6 weeks. They will need to focus on the few marginal remain primarily Conservative seats but cannot see them making huge inroads. The Brexit Party will be a disruptor and will potentially take some votes away from the two main Parties but have little chance of any seats and need to look further at who they potentially hurt the most by these in reality wasted votes. What we all really need to do no matter where your politics lie, do not take the deluge of mainstream media, social media and spin on face value and look for and determine the truth behind them for yourself. We are in for a divisive, potentially nasty 6 weeks ahead and we need to respect opposing views as in reality there is more to life than Politics and civility costs nothing but is invaluable. |
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Post by vdcni on Oct 29, 2019 21:08:07 GMT
I'm not convinced about that at all. Surely Johnson will have to campaign on his deal which should mean the Brexit Party will oppose him.
I don't see why the Lib Dems won't do better than 2017 given recent events. Most of their big targets are Conservative seats and if they can focus the Remain vote in those areas they will likely win some of them at least.
Will be interesting to see how Johnson reacts to being attacked from all sides.
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 29, 2019 22:45:21 GMT
We will be hearing the phrase 'Green New Deal' every day all day for the next 44 days. Labour will absolutely hammer it.
I suspect the 'transformative' agenda will trample the Tory Magic Money Tree. Gaps will close.
Meanwhile, Lib Dem's will continue telling people off for being wrong and sending them to tidy their rooms.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Oct 29, 2019 23:22:27 GMT
The centre ground is up for grabs. With both Labour and Conservatives promising spending like there’s no tomorrow and their dual choice of libertarian pirate island or socialist nirvana there is a whole area that is not currently being catered for. Can Corbyn tack to the centre? Can Johnson? If they don’t then the two party system is under even more pressure. As John Curtice (the man who predicted Brexit and in charge of the last very accurate exit polls), has recently said. "I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this parliament. The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat. We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties.” www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/If all the two main parties do is stroke their current voters’ prejudices, then they might not get things all their own way. |
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 30, 2019 7:26:29 GMT
As a starting point:
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Post by BurlyBeaR on Oct 30, 2019 7:29:42 GMT
Brenda won’t be happy
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Oct 30, 2019 10:03:14 GMT
Better to look at the polling average, as many will know polling is all over the place and, with traditional voting groups breaking up, the way that they use the incoming data is by no means tested in this new reality. On the election, good luck at selling the Green New Deal to working class voters from fhe North and Midlands, it’s as though Labour have holed up inside the M25 and haven’t talked to these voters. |
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 30, 2019 10:13:31 GMT
Not that I'd want to educate someone so educated but it's not targetted at working class voters - at least not over 30s, though they are of course welcome to emotionally invest.
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Oct 30, 2019 10:27:44 GMT
Not that I'd want to educate someone so educated but it's not targetted at working class voters - at least not over 30s, though they are of course welcome to emotionally invest. With Greens back down to 4% there’s not much to squeeze there. Ideas on free care over 65 will be something to promote round here, though (oop north, that is). There’s one thing that would get people like my parents back voting Labour, though, and that’s getting rid of Jeremy Corbyn (they are fans of Andy Burnham, whose name they offered as being a decent replacement). Too late, now. |
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Post by theatremonkey.com on Oct 30, 2019 10:54:15 GMT
Probably a Conservative win, provided they don't do a Maybot and tell the most regular voters that when they get Alzheimer's and need help, they will take their house away. I mean, we all know they will anyway - both sides will, there's no money to do anything else - but actually spelling it out again would cost the Tories in particular the win.
Seriously, though, so many things can be said and interpreted, remember the Ed Stone?
All I know is that at the moment it won't be until I'm actually in the booth with pencil and paper in front of me that I will decide whether to make a single cross or write "none of the above." It's really that difficult for me right now.
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Post by lynette on Oct 30, 2019 11:57:00 GMT
Well, I’m in a target constituency. I hope to have tv and radio pundits all over me. What shall I wear when I go up the road to collect my prescription? 😂😂😂
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Post by duncan on Oct 30, 2019 11:58:05 GMT
Labour are screwed under Corbyn, any competent leader of the party over the past 3 years would be in power by now. The man is a major liability but because a few thousand left wing nutjobs think he's the second coming we're most likely going to see boJo back in Number 10.
With any luck the SNP will take out Swinson and Farage will lose again.
..and then we can all get on with leaving the EU or not. Have to admit I'll laugh like a drain if we end up with the parties at almost the exact same number of MPs after this nonsense.
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Post by londonpostie on Oct 30, 2019 12:28:18 GMT
Not that I'd want to educate someone so educated but it's not targetted at working class voters - at least not over 30s, though they are of course welcome to emotionally invest. With Greens back down to 4% there’s not much to squeeze there. Ideas on free care over 65 will be something to promote round here, though (oop north, that is). There’s one thing that would get people like my parents back voting Labour, though, and that’s getting rid of Jeremy Corbyn (they are fans of Andy Burnham, whose name they offered as being a decent replacement). Too late, now. Demonstrably has nothing to do with Greens. |
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Post by Cardinal Pirelli on Oct 30, 2019 12:54:01 GMT
With Greens back down to 4% there’s not much to squeeze there. Ideas on free care over 65 will be something to promote round here, though (oop north, that is). There’s one thing that would get people like my parents back voting Labour, though, and that’s getting rid of Jeremy Corbyn (they are fans of Andy Burnham, whose name they offered as being a decent replacement). Too late, now. Demonstrably has nothing to do with Greens. As you've already got these voters back after the Green high point at the Euros. You'll get nearly zero on that score from the right, however, and any sympathetic Lib Dem in a constituency that has Labour best placed and a solid remain candidate will already be tactically voting for Labour (me, for one). If it's an attempt to supercharge the youth vote then it has some mileage but younger voters tend not to turnout in as high a number than other age groups, so it willl need a massive push. There's a whole bunch of potential Labour voters who are just waiting for a sign that Labour is going to move back to what it was, though. They hate Corbyn and the Metropolitan viewpoint of current Labour and all it would take is a promise for Corbyn to step down after the election. |
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